Thursday, December 02, 2010
Snow started mixing in with the rain at our place last night in the 10 PM to 11 PM timeframe, but as of this morning the temperature was in the 34-35 F range and we hadnít picked up any accumulation. I saw that Mt. Mansfield got into the 20s F last night, and the morning report from Stowe says that the upper elevations picked up an inch at the back end of the system.
Even for our elevation however, the NWS forecast has a lot of snow potential, the graphic forecast is loaded with flakes, and the same thing continues through essentially the whole text forecast for seven days:
Iíd have to think weíll get at least a little accumulation out of a forecast like that.
Listening to Roger Hillís forecast this morning, it sounds like the stronger chances for accumulating snow in the lower elevations really come into the area starting Saturday, as the moisture wraps around from that upper level low. Going through the weekend, he does expect at least some accumulation at all elevations, and used the quote ďItís going to look like Christmas.Ē
On that note, it is December now, so we should definitely start the snowpack building. Even last season, which was the latest start to the snowpack that I have recorded here, the snow was down by December 6th. Our other slow start was December 4th in 2006-2007, so if this upcoming pattern produces snow that stays, we should be in that range.
I honestly think 7 day totals by next Thursday could be in the 12-24" range for the ski resorts and prime upslope areas north of I-89 corridor.
That sounds reasonable, and based on the consensus of data that I've seen from experts like you guys on AmWx, the NWS, Roger Hill, and personal experience from living around here, if someone were to ask me for numbers, that's exactly what I would have said to them.
I'm less sure about what numbers to think about for accumulations down at the house. Often I'll just go with 1/4 to 1/2 of what the upslope-savvy folks are thinking for the higher elevations of the Mansfield-Bolton stretch of the Greens, which would put our location in the 3-12" range, but the NWS is worried about marginal temperatures in the lower elevations:
ACCUMULATIONS A TAD MORE TRICKY ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF THE NORTH AS NEAR-SURFACE LAYERS AT OR JUST ABOVE THE FREEZING MARK.
Even with some marginal temperatures at times, the overnight temperatures should be below freezing, so even the lowest-elevation mountain valleys are probably going to get something to accumulate.
Gotta get some snow at JSpin's stake!
The stake is ready, snowboards are ready, rulers and all the other snow measurin' stuff are ready, now we'll just have to see what Mother Nature wants to deliver. Like Powderfreak we've had flakes in the air all evening, but nothing has been accumulating down at this elevation. Scott - I immediately thought of one of your microclimate comments today on the drive home. I got off the bus at the Waterbury Park and Ride and it was just cloudy, I hadn't even been thinking about snow in our area or anything. Wouldn't you know it though, just after I pass by the Cider House, about 3/4 of a mile from home, the lights caught a fleck of white. I figured it was a scrap of paper or a leaf or whatever, but within moments there were flakes all around and I had to laugh because I'd just entered "the zone". I took it as a good sign though that we are getting into that winter regime.
Friday, December 03, 2010
Like Powderfreak we've had flakes in the air all evening, but nothing has been accumulating down at this elevation. Scott - I immediately thought of one of your microclimate comments today on the drive home. I got off the bus at the Waterbury Park and Ride and it was just cloudy, I hadn't even been thinking about snow in our area or anything. Wouldn't you know it though, just after I pass by the Cider House, about 3/4 of a mile from home, the lights caught a fleck of white. I figured it was a scrap of paper or a leaf or whatever, but within moments there were flakes all around and I had to laugh because I'd just entered "the zone". I took it as a good sign though that we are getting into that winter regime.
Just after replying to Powderfreak in the Retrograde Thread and indicating that we hadnít seen any accumulation from our snowfall, I checked the snowboard before heading off to bed, and low and behold it had started to accumulate. It was around 11:15 P.M., a steady stream of flurries/light snow was coming down, and there was a tenth of an inch of graupel on the snowboard. The precipitation was for the most part standard flakes, but the graupel balls seem to have the most staying power to accumulate. Our temperature eventually dropped to the freezing mark, so the accumulation was still there this morning. This will go down as the first accumulation for this event, with hopefully more to come.
Our point and click forecast is calling for 2 to 4 inches of snow through tomorrow, which was fairly in line with what Roger Hill suggested in his broadcast this morning. In his 7:15 AM broadcast, Roger suggested that there could easily be 3 to 6 inches of snow on the ground for the Barre/Montpelier/Waterbury area by next week at this time, with mountain totals measured in feet.
Edit: I forgot to mention that there's even snow in the air here in Burlington, flurries with no accumulation.
I just stopped in at the BTV NWS site and noticed that our area is under a winter weather advisory from 4 PM tomorrow through 7 PM Sunday. Our location is right at the south end of the 6 inch zone in the accumulations maps, but thatís substantially more than our point and click would suggest, so weíll have to see how elevation plays into it.
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
313 PM EST FRI DEC 3 2010
ORLEANS-LAMOILLE-WASHINGTON-EASTERN FRANKLIN-EASTERN CHITTENDEN-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NEWPORT...JOHNSON...STOWE...
313 PM EST FRI DEC 3 2010
...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM SATURDAY TO 7 PM
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BURLINGTON HAS ISSUED A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM SATURDAY TO 7 PM
* LOCATIONS...ORLEANS...LAMOILLE AND WASHINGTON COUNTIES OF VERMONT...AS WELL AS THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE GREEN MOUNTAINS NORTH OF ADDISON COUNTY.
* ACCUMULATIONS...4 TO 8 INCHES OF SNOW.
* TIMING...LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY EVENING.
* IMPACTS...HAZARDOUS DRIVING CONDITIONS.
* WINDS...WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 15 MPH...WITH GUSTS NEAR 25
* TEMPERATURES...HIGHS 30 TO 35. LOWS AROUND 20.
A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW WILL CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR SNOW COVERED ROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES...AND USE CAUTION WHILE DRIVING.
PLEASE STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...YOUR LOCAL MEDIA...OR
GO TO WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BURLINGTON FOR FURTHER UPDATES ON THIS
Saturday, December 04, 2010
Event totals: 0.2Ē Snow/Trace L.E.
I first looked outside this morning at around 5:20 A.M. and there were a few flakes falling. When I checked again 6:00 A.M., the snowfall was more substantial, it had started to accumulate, and there was a tenth of an inch on the snowboard. The snowfall is still fairly light, and the temperature has been sitting at 28.9 F. Taking a look at the radar, the moisture currently seems to be coming in from the NNE:
Edit: I forgot to mention that there's even snow in the air here in Burlington, flurries with no accumulation.
I didnít have time to comment on this yesterday after I found out, but in Roger Hillís 8:10 A.M. broadcast, he mentioned that there was actually lake effect coming off Champlain yesterday. I had grabbed a quick radar image, and we did have that appropriate northerly-style wind making that streamer head down into Addison County:
think you are going to clean up in this event. You are in the perfect position
to get some pretty solid totals.
I just went up to the mountain and took a couple runs... cold, windy, and snowy: the usual Mansfield experience. Top of the Quad was very chilly with sustained winds in the 20-30mph range I'd guess. It looked like there was 1-2" at the summit and maybe an inch at the base so far, however this is going to be a hard one to measure on the mountain as this snow is light/fluffy and getting blown everywhere.
Mountain Road is snow packed starting around the Matterhorn, and below that itís just snow sifting around on the pavement (but not really "snowpacked"). Already saw one pick-up truck smashed into a telephone pole just below the Matterhorn, so the roads are getting slick. Stowe PD had a heavy presence up and down the Mtn Road trying to keep the weekend tourist traffic out of trouble on the snowy roads.
Thanks for the great updates Scott. From the Northern Vermont skierís/winter weather enthusiastís perspective, itís simply fantastic having someone of your position on Americanwx.com. You are literally monitoring the weather and interacting with the forum, popping out for some runs, getting information on the higher elevations, and reporting in. Anyway, itís very much appreciated.
As of last check at around 11:00 A.M. there was between 0.7 and 0.8 inches of snow on the board since the 6:00 A.M. clearing. With the small flakes that are falling (~1-2 mm diameter) it gives the impression that almost nothing is going on out there, but Iíve been taking out some of the houseís window screens for the winter, and even in just a few moments of poking my head out the windows while I work on them, things are getting wet with the flakes. There is certainly some liquid coming down in those tiny flakes, and it will be interesting to see where things are in terms of liquid with this event. Iíll be clearing the board and taking a core sample at noon, so weíll find out then.
Our point and click has been updated so that it seems pretty in synch with the storm total forecast that BTV has on their page. For our location the forecast has a total of 4 to 8 inches, broken down as up to 1 inch today, 2 to 4 inches tonight, and 1 to 3 inches tomorrow. We seem to be roughly on track for that inch today based on my measurements so far.
Event totals: 1.0Ē Snow/0.08Ē L.E.
The noontime snow measurement came in with 0.8 inches of snow comprised of 0.08 inches of liquid, so with the combination of earlier big flakes and these recent small flakes, the density is right on at 10% H2O. The snow has lightened up a bit more now and the flakes are very small (~1 mm diameter).
New Snow: 0.8 inches
New Liquid: 0.08 inches
Snow/Water Ratio: 10.0
Snow Density: 10.0%
Temperature: 30.0 F
Sky: Light Snow (1 mm flakes)
Snow at the stake: 1 inch
Event totals: 1.5Ē Snow/0.12Ē L.E.
6:00 P.M. update: The snow really slowed down and had all but stopped by 4:00 P.M. I headed into town for groceries at that point and there was a bit less snow there Ė some grassy areas hardly seemed to have snow on them. Snow was just starting to fall again as I went into the store, and the car had a light accumulation when I came back out. Itís been snowing since that point, with small flakes in the 1-2 mm range. The snow continues to accumulate quite slowly, but this is now our largest snowfall event of the season.
New Snow: 0.5 inches
New Liquid: 0.04 inches
Snow/Water Ratio: 12.5
Snow Density: 8.0%
Temperature: 25.9 F
Sky: Light Snow (1-2 mm flakes)
Snow at the stake: 1 inch
Sunday, December 05, 2010
Event totals: 1.9Ē Snow/0.14Ē L.E.
Sunday 12/5/2010 6:00 A.M. update: The 0.4 inches of new snow since yesterdayís 6:00 P.M. report was picked up through roughly midnight. After that point, the snow shut off to just flurries, with just an additional trace accumulating on the board in the 12:00 A.M. to 6:00 A.M. timeframe. As the data below would suggest, flake size was up (~3-4 mm diameter) and density was down relative to the small grains that have comprised much of this event. There havenít been any of those huge upslope dendrites so far with this event, but hopefully the smaller flakes/grains that have fallen will do a better job of resisting the wind and staying on the slopes as a base begins to build.
New Snow: 0.4 inches
New Liquid: 0.02 inches
Snow/Water Ratio: 20.0
Snow Density: 5.0%
Temperature: 23.9 F
Snow at the stake: 1 inch
Monday, December 06, 2010
Event totals: 5.3Ē Snow/0.19Ē L.E.
Monday 12/6/2010 6:00 A.M. update: There hadnít been too much going on since my last update yesterday morning; there was occasionally some snow falling, but nothing that was really accumulating in our area. I happened to look outside around 11:00 P.M. yesterday evening and noticed that we had some huge flakes coming down, with some diameters of an inch or more. It really seemed like the upslope machine had turned on, and when I checked out the radar at the time (image below), it seemed that the echoes had recently nosed their way up the Winooski Valley into our area. By midnight there was 1.4 inches of new snow on the snowboard, and this morning there was an additional 2.0 inches. With 3.4 inches falling in the course of 7 hours or so, this has probably been the most intense snowfall weíve seen with this event, although since itís incredibly dry, upslope snow, the actual amount of liquid falling from the sky hasnít been huge.
When I left the house at around 6:00 A.M. this morning, light to borderline moderate snow was falling, and the situation was similar in the Richmond area. Both the snowfall and snowpack seemed to taper off in the Williston area, and it was simply bare ground in the South Burlington area. Here on the UVM campus, there are just some scattered dustings of snow around with flurries in the air, but there is that ominous wall of white off to the east.
Our current NWS point and click calls for 4 to 10 inches through tomorrow, broken down as 1 to 3 today, 2 to 4 tonight, and 1 to 3 tomorrow. Unlike the way the snow fell over the weekend, often in the form of tiny grains, those forecast numbers would be much easier to realize with the density of snow that is falling. 6:00 A.M. Waterbury details are below:
New Snow: 3.4 inches
New Liquid: 0.05 inches
Snow/Water Ratio: 68.0
Snow Density: 1.5%
Temperature: 22.5 F
Sky: Light/Moderate Snow (0.5Ē flakes)
Snow at the stake: 4 inches
I just noticed that winter storm warnings and winter weather advisories have been posted for our area. BTV says that accumulations have been building up fast enough to require the issuance:
AS OF 1044 AM EST MONDAY...HAVE UPDATED ALL ZONES TO ADD IN WINTER WX ADV/WARN. SNOWFALL AMTS ALREADY RECEIVED ARE PROMPTING ISSUANCE AS WNW FLOW WILL PERSIST OVER THE AREA...AFFECTING NW FACING UPSLOPE AREAS. THESE SPOTS COULD RECEIVE AN ADDITIONAL 5-10 INCHES BFR TAPERING OFF TOMORROW. REST OF CWA WILL SEE MUCH LESS ACCUM...W/ PORTIONS OF SC VT SEEING ONLY NEAR AN INCH.
Our point and click has been upped a bit to 5 to 11 inches, and for the Bolton area itís gone to 6-12 inches.
The snow in Burlington was
ramping up all day; itís at a point where Iíd have to say itís at least
moderate. Using the visibility scale, Iíd say itís at ~1/2 mile,
maybe less. At the airport, BTV
has been in the SN/SN- range in the past couple of hours. Accumulation on
the UVM campus was ~2 inches.
Traffic update: On I-89 southbound in the Williston area, thereís an accident or something that has the traffic at a crawl. Weíre past it now, and French Hill area is clear of traffic. Great to have the Wifi here on the bus, bravo CCTA!
Event totals: 9.1Ē Snow/0.35Ē L.E.
Monday 12/6/2010 6:00 P.M. update: The snow is really pounding down here in the Waterbury area, and even though we only picked up 3.8 inches at the house during the day today, itís coming down much harder than that rate at this point, and I assume the intensity has been ramping up during the day like I saw in Burlington. Just the couple mile drive home along Route 2 from the Waterbury Park and Ride was quite challenging. Iíd say most of that was due to visibility from heavy snowfall, but the roads are snow packed without huge snowbanks, so that combination made following the edge a bit difficult. Iíd say that the winter storm warning is certainly justified around here, as it is downright nasty out there and one would not want to get stuck out in it. The snow that accumulated on the snowboards today was very high-quality stuff of 4-5% H2O that makes that hissing sound as you push it around; itís the sort that just begs to be skied. For this total retrograde event since the start of the weekend, weíre getting close to double digits for snow accumulation, and it shouldnít take too long to hit that mark with the rate itís coming down. I can see that BTV is expecting fairly decent snowfall to continue, as our NWS point forecast is calling for an additional 5 to 11 inches through tomorrow, and the forecast calls for potentially over a foot up above us at Bolton. Some 6:00 P.M. observations details are below:
New Snow: 3.8 inches
New Liquid: 0.16 inches
Snow/Water Ratio: 23.8
Snow Density: 4.2%
Temperature: 21.9 F
Sky: Snow (5-6 mm flakes)
Snow at the stake: 6.5 inches
Tuesday, December 07, 2010
Event totals: 14.1Ē Snow/0.55Ē L.E.
Tuesday 12/7/2010 12:00 A.M. update: Weíve had good snowfall for the past six hours, and at an average rate of 0.8 inches/hour, itís our biggest 6-hour period so far this season. The flakes are big, the wind is calm, and thus the snow is a fairly lofty 4% H2O similar to the last round. We seem to be getting in on the end of those 30 db echoes that are pushing their way down the Winooski Valley/I-89 in the radar image below:
Details from this update are below, next one in the morning.
New Snow: 5.0 inches
New Liquid: 0.20 inches
Snow/Water Ratio: 25.0
Snow Density: 4.0%
Temperature: 22.1 F
Sky: Snow (8-12 mm flakes)
Snow at the stake: 9.5 inches
Event totals: 18.0Ē Snow/0.61Ē L.E.
Tuesday 12/7/2010 6:00 A.M. update: The snow wasnít falling quite as hard for this last 6-hour interval vs. the previous one, and the fluff factor was up, with the density basically being cut in half. Thereís plenty of settling going on with the fluffy snow, there are 11.0 inches at the stake off the 18.0-inch event total. Details from this update are below:
New Snow: 3.9 inches
New Liquid: 0.06 inches
Snow/Water Ratio: 65.0
Snow Density: 1.5%
Temperature: 21.6 F
Sky: Snow (5-10 mm flakes)
Snow at the stake: 11.0 inches
Weíve had about 20 inches of snow down at the house, and the huge upslope flakes continue to fall. Some of the west slope communities and the mountains are in the two foot range for accumulations at this point, so the NWS was fairly on track with their predictions from last Thursday.
Iíve added a couple of the BTV storm forecast graphics and their latest totals from this morning for this part of the event:
We are measuring in feet
now. Some big totals coming out of the northern Greens this
Skiing is ridiculous, heading back out now. Billowing, blower powder that's boot to knee deep, with spots of thigh deep.
Thanks for the update list Scott, thatís our 12.7 inches from the house for the 6 AM 12/6 to 6 AM 12/7 24-hour period. Itís a nice slug of snow, but wow did some of those west slope communities get hammered based on their 24-hour totals, easily two feet by now based on the numbers from this morning.
We had picked up a couple more inches of snow before I left Waterbury around 11:00 A.M. this morning, so the storm total for our location is somewhere around 20 inches since the Friday/Saturday timeframe. Iíll update with a measurement later today. Here in Burlington, blue sky has been appearing, and for precipitation itís been flurries at most. I was surprised to see that here on the UVM campus, the snow accumulation is essentially the same couple of inches I saw when I left yesterday, so they must not have picked up much beyond what I saw late yesterday afternoon. Talking to colleagues here, the accumulations just go upward as you head east in the Champlain Valley.
I've got a stake in northern VT's weather these days (skiing Jay Peak from the 17th-19th)...and 8 out of the 12 gfs ensemble members seem to indicate an all-frozen scenario for next SUN/MON. That's not to say there won't be a period of sleet due to some warming above h85...but on the very latest run, the majority of ensemble members keep any fzra/ra south of the northern Greens.
Thanks for the update kulaginman, it would be nice if all the recent snow could be kept in decent shape for all the folks that are coming up to ski in the next few weeks. Much of the snow from this event was so fluffy that something a little more dense like sleet wouldn't be the worst thing to see, although dense snow would probably be the best. Since this snow was so fluffy, I'm not sure where it puts us in terms of off piste skiing, but hopefully Powderfreak can give an update with regard to Stowe.
Event totals: 19.9Ē Snow/0.65Ē L.E.
Tuesday 12/7/2010 5:00 P.M. update: I didnít have a chance to send this in earlier, but here are a few observations from the area today. In Burlington there were patches of blue sky appearing at the end of the day, but the wall of white was visible off to the east in the Greens. Itís always fun to head east into that wall and find out exactly whatís going on out there. In this case, the first stray flakes started to appear around the I-89 rest area in Williston. By exit 11 in Richmond it was steady flurries, and beyond the center of Richmond through to Waterbury the snowfall intensity fluctuated between steady flurries and light snow. I had to head to a meeting in Morrisville tonight, and on the way out around 5:30 P.M. it was consistent light snow all the way. On the way home at around 9:00 P.M., the snow was steady and lightly accumulating south to Stowe, but then tapered off around Waterbury Center. Even at the house the snow was very light at that point, but it has picked up since then. The fluffy snow continues to settle and was down to 10.0 inches at the stake. Details from the 5:00 P.M. update are below:
New Snow: 1.9 inches
New Liquid: 0.04 inches
Snow/Water Ratio: 47.5
Snow Density: 2.1%
Temperature: 23.0 F
Sky: Snow (5-10 mm flakes)
Snow at the stake: 10.0 inches
Wednesday, December 08, 2010
Event totals: 22.1Ē Snow/0.74Ē L.E.
Wednesday 12/8/2010 6:00 A.M. update: While it seemed fairly vigorous while I was in the Morrisville/Stowe area yesterday evening, the snowfall wasnít too prodigious at our location during that time. In the 5:00 P.M. to 11:00 P.M. period, weíd picked up just 0.3 inches of snow. The accumulation was fairly minor, and the rate of snowfall seemed to be picking up, so I decided not to clear the snowboard and get the full accumulation in the morning. The sky was just flurries with some stars showing through clear areas this morning at 6:00 A.M., but at some point the snowfall had picked up because the board held 2.2 inches of new snow comprised of 0.09 inches of liquid. The underlying snowpack has certainly slowed a bit in its settling now, because the roughly two inches brought the snow depth at our stake from 10.0 inches yesterday evening, to 12.0 inches this morning. Also of note was the fact that this morning was our coldest of the season so far, with the temperature already down to 16.5 F at the time of the report. Details from the 6:00 A.M. update are below:
New Snow: 2.2 inches
New Liquid: 0.09 inches
Snow/Water Ratio: 24.4
Snow Density: 4.1%
Temperature: 16.5 F
Sky: Flurries/Partly Cloudy
Snow at the stake: 12.0 inches
With the season snowfall at 25.5 inches as of this morning, we are at least staring to make up for the rather poor November. The numbers are still almost 14 inches behind where we were in Ď07-Ď08 at this point. However, we are now only about 4 inches behind Ď08-Ď09 for the same date, and we are well ahead of í06-í07 and í09-í10.
BTV put together some three day totals for this event with a map, so I figured I would pass it along to the NNE forum. Thanks to BTV for putting this together. Largest accumulation Iíve seen in there is the North Underhill one at 32.1 inches. It actually would have been neat if they could have added a couple more gradations of color for those areas up near 30 inches so that those areas could be isolated visually, but I think they were running out of room on the scale bar. For our location on the Waterbury/Bolton line (Chittenden County/Washington County Line), the 3-day total was 20.2 inches based on my CoCoRaHS numbers, and in the map you can really see how that mauve? (Iím going to go with mauve for now) color for 20+ inches bleeds through the spine in the Winooski Valley corridor and just noses into Washington County. Itís been a cool (and Iíd argue somewhat classic) event, and actually still going as Powderfreak mentioned. From here in Burlington the wall of white along the Greens is clearly visible, so Iíll see if there has been any accumulation at the house this evening.
Event totals: 22.8Ē Snow/0.77Ē L.E.
Wednesday 12/8/2010 6:00 P.M. update: We picked up 0.7 inches of snow from todayís activity, with just flurries falling at 6:00 P.M., but the snowfall rate has picked up a bit now. I thought the settling of the snowpack was slowing down, but itís certainly still going, as the 12.0 inches at the stake from this morning is down to 9.5 inches this evening. Checking the memory thermometer, our low from this morning was 15.8 F, which was our coldest of the season. That has already been bested this evening however, since we have already hit 15.2 F as of 8:30 P.M. Details from the 6:00 A.M. update are below:
New Snow: 0.7 inches
New Liquid: 0.03 inches
Snow/Water Ratio: 23.3
Snow Density: 4.3%
Temperature: 17.6 F
Snow at the stake: 9.5 inches
I was out finishing up some snowblowing and shoveling, and the snow was coming down fairly steadily for a while. Our point forecast is actually calling for 2 to 4 inches of accumulation tonight:
Overnight: Occasional snow showers. Low around 9. West wind around 6 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. Total nighttime snow accumulation of 2 to 4 inches possible.
Öalthough Iím not sure weíll get to those levels unless we sit under one of those bands that are visible on the radar:
I suspect we were under one of those when the snow intensity really picked up this evening.
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 715 PM EST WEDNESDAY...QUICK EARLY UPDATE TO THIS EVENING`S PACKAGE...MAINLY TO REFLECT HIGHER COVERAGE OF SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY AND RESULTANT MINOR ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS OUR NRN VT COUNTIES AND INTO THE ADIRONDACKS WHERE LOCALLY SLICK ROADS HAVE BEEN REPORTED. LATEST ANALYSIS SHOWING WEAK SHORTWAVE FEATURE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST...AND WHILE THIS IS WEAKER THAN SHORTWAVE THAT PASSED EARLIER TODAY...ENOUGH SYNOPTIC LIFT TO ALLOW BURST OF CURRENT SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE DACKS AND INTO THE ERN PORTIONS OF THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. BANDED NATURE OF ACTIVITY NEAR BURLINGTON SUPPORTS IDEA OF LAKE CHAMPLAIN ENHANCEMENT...WHICH WOULD MAKE SENSE GIVEN LAKE INDUCED CAPES OF 500-600 J/KG. AS A RESULT...HAVE INCREASED PCPN CHANCES FAIRLY MARKEDLY THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS IN THESE AREAS. GENERALLY EXPECTING A DUSTING TO 2 INCHES ACROSS THE NORTH (LESS SLV) WITH LITTLE IF ANY ACCUMS ACROSS SC VT. LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE GREEN MTNS (2-4") WHERE OROGRAPHIC ENHANCEMENT ONGOING. SNOW WATER EQUVALENTS STILL RUNNING QUITE HIGH AND USING A 30/1 RATIO SHOULD ENSURE A CONTINUED HIGH FLUFF FACTOR.
Thursday, December 09, 2010
Event totals: 23.2Ē Snow/0.78Ē L.E.
Thursday 12/9/2010 6:00 A.M. update: We didnít have too much snowfall activity last night, but the combination of moderately-sized flakes that fell yesterday evening, plus what looked like some tiny flakes overnight, brought 0.4 inches of accumulation comprised of 0.01 inches of liquid. This was the 14th snowfall entry into my spreadsheet for this long-duration event, and it looks like we are nearing the end. It is actually ending up somewhat similar to the retrograding storm from the New Yearís Period last year, in which 17 snowfall entries were made from January 1st through January 8th, 2010, and we received a total of 24.9 inches of snow. Details from the 6:00 A.M. update are below:
New Snow: 0.4 inches
New Liquid: 0.01 inches
Snow/Water Ratio: 40.0
Snow Density: 2.5%
Temperature: 12.7 F
Snow at the stake: 9.0 inches
have you been up to Bolton recently? I bet they would've been ground zero for
this event given the 28-32" accumulations that were reported in the West
Bolton-Underhill-Cambridge corridor. All those reports were from elevations below
1,500ft, too. Given that Bolton Valley sits between 2,000-3,400ft in a bowl on
the western slope of the Spine, I bet they picked up an honest 3-4 feet from
I'd be curious to see what it looks like up there at the base area and residential area up there in the 2,000-2,300ft elevation range on the west slope. That would be my pick for the jackpot for this last storm.
EDIT: Just checked their website... 44" in the last 72 hours. That sounds about right given their location. Wow that's an impressive snowfall event.
I haven't been up, but I checked their website yesterday and saw that they had done well, so I grabbed a screen shot (pasted below).
Here's a bit of what I posted over at the First Tracks forum:
I havenít provided an update on the ski area snowfall totals that weíve seen with this event, so Iíve listed some of the totals Iíve seen below. Bolton Valley is topping the list with around 4 feet of new snow, which is not too surprising the way the upslope snow has been focused on the western slopes of the Greens:
Jay Peak: 34Ē
Bolton Valley: 47Ē
Mad River Glen: 26Ē
Totals fell off a bit south if the I-89/Route 2/Winooski corridor as sometimes happens with these events. South of Killington, I saw that Okemo had 4 to 6 inches in the past 72 hours, but the snow totals really seemed to fall off south of there, consistent with BTVís map.
I havenít been out on the slopes since Sunday, but Greg Petrics has a good 9 pages full of the usual over the head photos of Vermont powder skiing in ďVTah
Ē. Those images give a nice view of where
things went around here since the weekend.
Bolton Valley is opening up tomorrow, and it will be interesting to see how much they decide to open with the four feet of snow. Itís that very fluffy Champlain Powderô stuff of course, so itís not the best for base building, but four feet is still fairly substantial no matter how you stack it. I donít know the exact number for their total liquid equivalent obtained from the event so far, but down at the house weíve picked up 0.78 inches of liquid, and Mt. Mansfield has picked up 1.97 inches of liquid since Friday, so I would say Bolton is in that range, or even higher with the way the snow hit the western slopes. Iíve added a grab from Boltonís snow report from yesterday talking about the new snow:
I see that they updated the numbers in today's report, so I added that in below:
I'll see what my schedule is like tomorrow, but it would be nice to go up for little of opening day and check out how everything is going up there with the snow. I'd really like to see if they plan on opening some of the terrain on natural snow - based on the calculations I mentioned above for Mt. Mansfield, I have to think that Bolton Valley got at least 2 inches of liquid out of the event. That should certainly be enough to open some trails like Lower Turnpike, but I'm sure it depends on what the wind did, how staffing is looking tomorrow, etc. They've been really good about opening stuff up in the past though, and with the early December openings that they have been doing the past few seasons, when the snow has been good they've been able to get natural trails going right from the start. It looks like we were skiing Glades on Dec 12 of last year right from our first day, skiing Wilderness on December 6th, in 2008, and even stuff like Vermont 200 on December 4th, 2007. My preference is to start skiing the natural snow terrain right from the get go anyway, and it looks like 3 out of the past 4 seasons that has worked out well up at Bolton. Places like Stowe and Sugarbush are open with manmade snow anyway if someone really needs to get a fix in November, so I think Bolton going with the later opening in the beginning of December has worked out well.
In Burlington today around 3:00 P.M., it started snowing. We didnít think much of it at first, but the snow kept falling with greater and greater intensity, and before we knew it, there was probably an inch of snow on the cars outside. It prompted me to check out the radar, and it looked like a very localized event. Iím not sure if the lake had anything to do with it, but it was very interesting:
Here at the house weíve picked up a couple of tenths of an inch to add to the event total, some were big flakes, but this evening itís that diamond dust falling out of the air under what appear to be clear skies. Iíll roll it all into tomorrow morningís observation for the end of this event, and then anything that falls with the disturbance passing through tomorrow will be put into that event.
Friday 12/10/2010 6:00 A.M. update: Weíve definitely cleared out now, so this will be the final update for this weekís snowfall event. It had quite a duration, as I took the first snowfall observation exactly one week ago. In line with what others have mentioned, we saw our lowest temperature of the season this morning, -3.8 F, and the temperature is climbing now. Details from the 6:00 A.M. update are below: