Sunday, November 21st, 2010

 

powderfreak, on 21 November 2010 - 09:58 AM, said:

The 00z GFS solution would be disgusting for us in the Greens up here.. this is a full 24 hour NW flow event.

 

Thanks for the upslope update Scott, that’s going to be very interesting to monitor.  The resorts could certainly use an event like that to help get things rolling.  I’m also interested in seeing how it plays out in terms of snowfall in the valleys around here.  I’ve been following the New England thread about the potential Thanksgiving event, with many people in Southern New England saying how November snowfall isn’t something to really be concerned with, but based on the four years of snowfall data I have so far I’d argue that’s not necessarily the case up here.  In the two bigger snowfall seasons of 2007-2008 and 2008-2009 we had roughly 20 inches of snow in November, vs. essentially nothing in 2006-2007 and ’ 2009-2010:

 

 

It’s certainly not going to be as black and white as those four seasons worth of data all the time, but I brought it up because the trend was quite striking.  Whatever happens down the line, a November with little or no snow definitely means a hit in terms of getting to the bigger seasonal snowfall totals; if November’s potential isn’t realized, those inches of snow would have to be made up somewhere else.  So far this season we’ve had 1.8 inches of November snow/sleet, which already puts us ahead of the seasons that were essentially snowless, and into some sort of middle ground, so it’s going to be fun to see how the rest of the month plays out.

 

As others mentioned, we also saw that round of frozen precipitation yesterday.  It was all graupel here, and came down quite hard for a bit, but temperatures were too warm for any notable accumulation.

 

On another wintry note, we actually saw our lowest temperature of the season last night here at the house, with the memory thermometer recording a low of 22.8 F.  It stayed quite cold out there today.  I’m not sure how high the temperature got, but as of noon we still hadn’t broken above the freezing mark.

 

It sounds like our next shot at frozen precipitation comes tonight into tomorrow morning at the start of this next system.  Our point and click forecast has us receiving snow and sleet tonight, and then freezing rain into tomorrow, although from the BTV NWS discussion it doesn’t sound like they’re worried about much in the way of accumulation before the temperatures warm.  After that, the next chances for frozen precipitation down here in the valley appear to be Tuesday night into Wednesday, and then Thursday night through Sunday.

 

 

Monday, November 22nd, 2010

 

cpickett79, on 22 November 2010 - 02:36 PM, said:

But on the bright side BIG UPSLOPE weekend for the greens and powderfreak and jspin should have wood.

 

It should be fun to see what happens with the upslope machine this weekend.  So far the NWS isn’t saying too much about it in their discussion, they’re just mentioning the chance of a light accumulation with an emphasis on the Adirondacks:

 

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT

737 PM EST MON NOV 22 2010

 

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

AS OF 216 PM EST MONDAY...

 

FRIDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY...CYCLONIC UPPER LEVEL FLOW AND COOL WESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL LEAD TO LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS WITH PERIODS OF SNOW SHOWERS... ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS WITH BEST CHANCE IN THE ADIRONDACKS. COULD SEE A LIGHT ACCUMULATION.

 

Our NWS point and click does have our location down for snow showers consistently in the Friday through Sunday period though:

 

Friday: A chance of snow showers. Cloudy, with a high near 38. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

Friday Night: A chance of snow showers. Cloudy, with a low around 24. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

Saturday: A chance of snow showers. Cloudy, with a high near 33. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

Saturday Night: A chance of snow showers. Cloudy, with a low around 23. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

Sunday: A chance of snow showers. Cloudy, with a high near 37. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

 

With regard to the Greens and the surrounding mountain towns, it’s sometimes difficult to know if they are thinking “snow showers” snow showers, or “6 to 12 inches” of snow showers, but the BTV NWS guys are of course really good with the local topography and will eventually write about it if the upslope snowfall looks like it is going to be really significant.  We’re lucky to have folks like Powderfreak, Roger Hill, and some of the other forecasters around as well, since they will start chatting about it a bit sooner if they see the upslope snowfall components coming together.

 

On another note, our “Local on the Eights” graphics on The Weather Channel did have the straight up snow graphic (vs. just snow showers, rain/snow, etc.) for the first time that I can recall this season.  On The Weather Channel through our cable we actually fall under the Montpelier forecast, which is several miles east of us and usually doesn’t get into the upslope snow as much as we do, so if there is Green Mountain upslope involved, our location will typically get at least as much snow as the Montpelier area, and likely more. 

 

 

 

We’ll see what Mother Nature decides to do, but it would be nice to get some of the November snowfall quota that has certainly played a part in seasonal totals around here for the higher end seasons of the past few.

 

 

Tuesday, November 23, 2010

 

J.Spin, on 21 November 2010 - 06:35 PM, said:

It sounds like our next shot at frozen precipitation comes tonight into tomorrow morning at the start of this next system. Our point and click forecast has us receiving snow and sleet tonight, and then freezing rain into tomorrow, although from the BTV NWS discussion it doesn’t sound like they’re worried about much in the way of accumulation before the temperatures warm. After that, the next chances for frozen precipitation down here in the valley appear to be Tuesday night into Wednesday, and then Thursday night through Sunday.

 

Checking on/listening to the latest forecasts, it sounds like there may actually be three more shots at snow or other frozen precipitation coming this week.  Yesterday morning’s first round is complete, but the upcoming shots look to be as follows:

 

Opportunity number two is tonight into tomorrow.  It sounded like things would be pretty dry as of yesterday, but both Roger Hill and the NWS are indicating the chance of snow showers with today’s cold front:

 

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT

633 AM EST TUE NOV 23 2010

 

.SYNOPSIS...

 

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TODAY...WITH SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. LINGERING RAIN SHOWERS WILL CHANGE TO SNOW SHOWERS OVERNIGHT AS TEMPERATURES COOL BELOW FREEZING.

 

 

Opportunity number three is Thursday night into Friday, which appears to be mixed precipitation.  Roger Hill mentioned his concern for travel during that period.  The NWS has mentioned it as well, although they expect places like the Champlain Valley to just change over to rain:

 

DEFINITELY HAVE SOME CONCERN THAT VERTICAL TEMPERATURE PROFILE MAY SUPPORT A PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN FOR SEVERAL HRS THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BE ESPECIALLY TRUE ALONG/EAST OF THE GREEN MTNS. HAVE INCORPORATED MIX OF IP/ZR/R DURING THE OVERNIGHT HRS.  SOUTH WINDS SHOULD WARM THINGS UP SUFFICIENTLY IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY TO TURN THINGS OVER TO PLAIN RAIN.

 

 

Opportunity number four is presumably any lake effect/upslope snow that might come along after that event.  The NWS isn’t really expecting anything accumulating for the valleys, so we’ll just have to see how that goes for now:

 

LOOKING LIKE A PROGRESSIVE WAA AREA OF PCPN FOLLOWED BY COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE MID-DAY FRIDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW STRATIFORM RAIN/MIXED PCPN TO END AS A FEW SNOW SHOWERS LATE FRIDAY WITH A WESTERLY WIND SHIFT AND LOW-LEVEL WAA LATE IN THE DAY.

 

BROAD UPR TROUGH/CYCLONIC FLOW AND COOL 850MB TEMPS /AROUND -10C/ SHOULD RESULT IN A MOSTLY CLOUDY PERIOD FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. MAY SEE SOME LAKE ONTARIO STREAMERS BRING PERIODS OF SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS SRN ST. LAWRENCE COUNTY INTO THE NRN ADIRONDACKS FROM TIME TO TIME. LIKEWISE...A FEW OROGRAPHIC SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE GREEN MTNS. COULD SEE A FEW INCHES OF SNOW ACCUMULATION OVER THE PERIOD OF 24-36 HRS IN THESE LOCATIONS WITH LITTLE OR NO MEASURABLE PCPN IN MOST VALLEY LOCATIONS.

 

So the pattern is certainly active and there will be things to watch.

 

 

Wednesday, November 24th, 2010

 

J.Spin, on 23 November 2010 - 08:50 AM, said:

Opportunity number two is tonight into tomorrow. It sounded like things would be pretty dry as of yesterday, but both Roger Hill and the NWS are indicating the chance of snow showers with today’s cold front:

 

As of 6:00 A.M. the temperature has dropped to ~32 F, there are snowflakes in the air, and I can hear the wind still blowing higher up with even some gusts down here.  There is no snow accumulation to report at this location, as the snowfall has been very light, and there’s only a bit of signal on the Burlington Composite Radar.  With this morning’s addition from the gauge, we have picked up 0.29” of liquid for this event, bringing this location to 49.21” for the calendar year.  Not sure how much more snow will fall with this current event, but next up is Thursday night into Friday, where the NWS has us down for a wintry mix.  Not surprisingly, Roger Hill says to watch out for nasty travel conditions during that period, with some light accumulations of frozen material possible.

 

 

Friday, November 26th, 2010

 

 

As of my 6:00 A.M. observations, the precipitation is mostly freezing rain with a little sleet mixed in.  The rain gauge captured 0.12” of liquid, the ice accumulation on the snowboard was in the 0.05” to 0.07” range, and the temperature was 32.7 F.

 

 

Saturday, November 27th, 2010

 

powderfreak, on 27 November 2010 - 08:44 AM, said:

Lets go Upslope Machine! I feel like we've got a great shot at a period of moderate to heavy snow squalls today... bookended by occasional/steady --Sn/-Sn

 

The “Heavy Snow” icon is hanging out in our point and click for today, with the following text:

 

Today: Snow showers likely, mainly between 11am and 3pm. The snow could be heavy at times. Cloudy, with a high near 27. South wind around 14 mph becoming west. Winds could gust as high as 36 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. Total daytime snow accumulation of 1 to 2 inches possible.

 

There aren’t any advisories associated with this event, but there is a hazardous weather outlook:

 

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHERN NEW YORK...CENTRAL VERMONT...NORTHEAST VERMONT...NORTHWEST VERMONT AND SOUTHERN VERMONT.

 

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

 

SNOW SQUALLS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE AREA AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES EAST THROUGH QUEBEC AROUND MIDDAY. 1 TO 3 INCHES OF ACCUMULATIONS MAY FALL DURING THIS TIME.

 

With all the moisture flow that has been visible on the Burlington Composite Radar for several hours now, I’m surprised that there’s nothing yet at the house, but based on the accumulations you detailed, it sounds like the lower elevations are not really into the action yet.

 

 

I’m not sure exactly when it fell, but as of 3:45 P.M. we’d picked up 0.6 inches of snow at the house.