Friday, October 29, 2010

 

 

As of this mornings broadcast, Roger is going with fairly minor snow/shower activity today into tomorrow morning, and then a bump up in the potential on Saturday night/Sunday morning as you guys have discussed. Hes thinking temperatures will be in the range that we wont really see anything stick in the lower valleys, but it could be sticking not too far above that. Tuesday through Wednesday seem to be a break in the action as the storm track is pushed south, and then hes seeing something after that which is sounding more substantial and could mean another round of snow at all elevations.

 

The NWS point forecast for our location/elevation in Waterbury has lows in the 20s F for the next three overnight periods, with snow potential in the graphics, so well see how it plays out.

 

A little from this mornings NWS discussion:

 

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...

AS OF 358 AM EDT FRIDAY...

 

AS THE LOW MOVES BY 06-12Z SUNDAY SOME WET SNOW MAY MIX IN IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS ESPECIALLY NRN VT.

 

SOME UNCERTAINTY DOES EXIST WITH THE LOCATION AND MAGNITUDE OF THE TEMPERATURE GRADIENT AND WHEN OR IF CHANGE TO WET SNOW OCCURS IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS PRIMARILY OF NORTHERN NY AND NORTHERN VT. IF IT IS A LITTLE COLDER AND OCCURS SOONER, A COUPLE OF INCHES OF WET SNOW COULD OCCUR SATURDAY NIGHT CLOSE TO CANADA ESP JAY PEAK TO ISLAND POND.

 

NEEDLESS TO SAY IT WILL BE A COOL RAW WEEKEND WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S SATURDAY AND IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S ON SUNDAY. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 20S TO LOWER 30S.

 

 

klw, on 29 October 2010 - 10:50 PM, said:

Its spitting out some light snow here at the moment.

 

I hadn't even thought to look outside for snowfall, since the last time Id seen the temperature this evening it was in the mid 40s F, but seeing the observations you guys have been reporting, I took a look. Sure enough, there were some flakes coming down even here at 500, but that wasnt too surprising once I saw that we were in the mid 30s F. No accumulation to report, but its nice to be getting in on another round of snow.

 

 

 

Saturday, October 30, 2010

 

 

Event totals: 0.5 snow/0.01 liquid

 

I peeked outside a bit after 6:00 A.M. this morning, and based on how lightly the snow had been falling last night, I wasnt expecting to see anything in terms of accumulation. There was nothing obvious from upstairs in the darkness outside, but I decided that Id better go down and hit the lights to make sure. Once Id done that, I could really tell wed picked up some snow. The accumulation was mostly on elevated surfaces, although there was a touch on the ground on materials such as mulch etc. The fallen snow was quite fluffy in contrast to the dense material from the big storm around the middle of the month. I found 0.4 of snow on the snowboard, and stacked 5 cores from that. However, once Id melted the accumulated cores down, measured, and processed the numbers, the liquid associated with the 0.4 was still just shy of 0.01 so it went down as a trace. While the flakes on the board were dendritic, around the time of my observation the falling snow was mostly graupel, and by around 7:00 A.M. wed picked up another tenth of an inch of that to bring the event to 0.5 of snow. My rain gauge was still in summer mode and the snow had collected in the funnel, but with a bit of work I was able to compress everything through the funnel and get it down in the inner collection tube. There had been 0.13 in the tube since 6:00 A.M. yesterday morning, which went to 0.14 with the addition of the snow, so the 0.01 of liquid equivalent was pretty close with the 0.4 of snow, and its definitely there with the graupel. Checking the BTV NWS discussions, I believe that the 0.13 in the gauge came from yesterday mornings activity associated with the upper level trough (light precipitation had started when I left the house yesterday morning) but some higher pressure briefly ridged in after that to stop the precipitation, so Im putting this snow down as a new event. As of about 7:30 A.M., the temperature has risen into the 34 F range and the snow/graupel is still falling lightly, but some of it seems to be melting on contact. Some 6:00 A.M. observations have been added below.

 

Saturday, October 30th, 2010: 6:00 A.M. update from Waterbury, VT

 

New Snow: 0.4 inches

Liquid Equivalent: Trace

Temperature: 33.1 F

Wind: Calm

Sky: Light snow/graupel/flurries (1-2 mm diameter)

Storm snow total: 0.4 inches

Storm liquid equivalent total: Trace

Current snow at the stake: Trace

 

 

 

We worked out back behind the house building a patio all day today, so I was able to follow the weather here fairly closely. Id say that by 9:00 A.M. the snow had finally changed over to all rain, and then we had light but steady rain all day. Even though it never poured, the rain was really persistent and it was quite raw out there. By lunch pretty much everything from head to toe was soaked enough that I switched to a new round of clothing for the afternoon session. I took a few peeks at the thermometer by the back deck during the day, and it seemed to top out around 41 F, but it was already starting to drop by 4:00 P.M. and were down to the 38-39 F range. If the temperature was to continue dropping I think wed easily switch back to snow tonight, but Im not sure how things are going to go based on the forecast - the NWS point and click has us dropping to a low of only 40 F. Were already under that, but perhaps because were supposed to get some southerly winds here, the temperature isnt expected to fall too far.

 

There arent any winter advisories, but we are under a special weather statement to cover the event:

 

 

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT

401 PM EDT SAT OCT 30 2010

 

...ACCUMULATING SNOWS ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS TONIGHT...

 

RAIN WILL MIX WITH AND CHANGE TO WET SNOW TONIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHERN NEW YORK...AS WELL AS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN VERMONT... ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN WHERE SEVERAL INCHES OF ACCUMULATION ARE POSSIBLE BY SUNDAY MORNING.

 

AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THE HEAVIEST ACCUMULATIONS WILL OCCUR ABOVE 2000 FEET FROM THE NORTHEASTERN ADIRONDACKS EAST ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS. THIS WOULD INCLUDE LOCATIONS FROM NORTHERN FRANKLIN AND CLINTON COUNTIES IN NEW YORK...EAST ACROSS FRANKLIN...ORLEANS...ESSEX...AND THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF LAMOILLE AND CALEDONIA COUNTIES IN VERMONT. IN THESE AREAS 2 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW IS EXPECTED WITH LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS ON HIGHER SUMMITS.

 

ELSEWHERE...ONLY MINOR ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF THE SAINT LAWRENCE AND NORTHERN CHAMPLAIN VALLEYS WHERE TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY MILDER. IN THESE AREAS ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN GENERALLY LESS THAN 2 INCHES...WITH MANY AREAS NEAR LAKE CHAMPLAIN RECEIVING LITTLE IF ANY SNOW.

 

MOTORISTS PLANNING TRAVEL TONIGHT ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS SHOULD BE AWARE OF THE WINTER CONDITIONS THAT ARE EXPECTED AND PLAN ACCORDINGLY. PLEASE STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...YOUR LOCAL MEDIA...OR GO TO WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BURLINGTON FOR FURTHER UPDATES

 

JMG

 

I checked the rain gauge, and as of ~5:30 P.M. theres just about a quarter inch of liquid in there, which represents the accumulation since 6:00 A.M. this morning. Looking at the BTV composite radar, there is certainly moisture moving westward through the area:

 

 

 

Sunday, October 31, 2010

 

 

Event totals: 0.5 snow/0.33 liquid

 

Im not sure when the rain changed back over to snow, but as of my 6:00 A.M. observations its snowing outside. Flakes are quite small (~1 mm diameter), the intensity is light, and theres no additional accumulation to report at this point. The temperature has certainly fallen from around 40 F where it was late last night, it is now 34.2 F. Since 6:00 A.M. yesterday weve picked up a third of an inch of liquid with this event.

 

Sunday, October 31st, 2010: 6:00 A.M. update from Waterbury, VT

 

Temperature: 34.2 F

Wind: Calm

Sky: Light snow (1 mm flakes)

 

 

Event totals: 0.7 snow/0.35 liquid

 

As I mentioned in my morning update, the rain changed to snow here at some point overnight. We hadnt had any accumulation from the overnight precipitation, but it seems like we were pretty close. Once we got enough daylight, I was able to see that the accumulating snow line was only about 100 feet or so above us in the heights behind the house. I only had time to grab a quick photo through the trees, but a break of sun had done a nice job of lighting up some of the snow:

 

 

Interestingly, the snow line seemed to be a bit higher on the other side of the valley.

 

We were back working outside again today, and as Powderfreak indicated for Stowe it basically snowed in some capacity the whole time here in Waterbury. Temperatures never went above the mid 30s F, but it was actually much more comfortable than yesterday because the precipitation wasnt nearly as heavy, and since it was exclusively snow we didnt get soaked. The snow today was most often graupel, and it wasnt usually accumulating, but in heavier bursts it would stick. We had several rounds where wed get a quick tenth of an inch of accumulation because the graupel balls took a little while to melt, but around 2:20 P.M. we had our heaviest and most persistent snowfall of the day. We accumulated a couple of tenths of snow, and some surfaces whitened up briefly. I checked the liquid from todays precipitation, and only found a couple of hundredths new since 6:00 A.M., so even though it snow almost continually, it was very light most of the time.

 

Trick or treating with the boys was fun tonight in Waterbury. It was cold and it snowed the entire time, but it wasnt snowing heavily like Ive experienced on some Halloween outings. There were just lots of light flakes dancing in the air, and in actually fit in with all the decorations and costumes pretty well. Other snowy Halloween outings that I can remember have been more like the big storm we had a couple of weeks back, where theres a ton of moisture and youre getting doused with heavy wet snow or a mix of snow and rain. I even wore the plastic witchs hat today that Ive used to defend myself from snowy Halloween outings in the past, but this time it was more useful for warmth than protection from the snow. This was the first snowy Halloween weve had since moving back from Montana in 2006. Two of those wet snow Halloweens I can recall were I believe 2004 in Montana, and then I think 1993 in Burlington, although that year it may not have been Halloween night itself, but a night close to that where we were in costume walking to a Halloween party. The past few Halloweens here have been milder as I recall, which is also fun, but snowy ones always bring back fun memories.

 

On another snowfall note, our friend whos been helping us with our patio said that as he passed by the base of the Bolton Valley Access Road yesterday afternoon, a car came down that looked like it had about a half a foot of snow on it. It was only an estimate from a distance, but the reports from the Mt. Mansfield Stake were 3 inches yesterday and 4 inches today, so its certainly accumulating in the higher elevations. It looks like were going to end up with about an inch of snow for this October at our location, which certainly isnt our snowiest, but its certainly been a snowy month. As Powderfreak posted, it was the snowiest October on record for Mt. Mansfield with 34.1 inches.

 

 

Monday, November 01, 2010

 

 

powderfreak, on 01 November 2010 - 07:18 AM, said:

I'm curious if J.Spin had some additional accumulations overnight in his upslope prone location as well.

 

We had snow, but no additional accumulations down in our location. I believe we got down as low as 32 F at one point during the night, but mostly we were around 33 F or so and the snow just wasnt sticking for the rate at which it was falling. Driving through the Winooski Valley on my way to Burlington this morning, the accumulating snow line seemed to be in the 1,000 to 1,500 foot range depending on the spot notably higher than what Id seen yesterday morning.

 

In at least one of his morning broadcasts, Roger Hill commented on the storm that is expected later in the week. It sounds like there are at least some chances for snow, especially in the higher elevations. Things arent all that cold though, so it could be one of those sandwich setups where there is some snow on the front end before the warm air intrudes, and some on the back end as the cold air comes in. The NWS point and click forecasts do have at least some snow in the mountain forecasts.

 

 

Tuesday, November 02, 2010

 

 

 

powderfreak, on 01 November 2010 - 09:05 PM, said:

Somehow it is snowing lightly again... 35F now.

I swear we've had 2-6sm light snow for almost 48 hours now at temps ranging from 30-37F. I'm very impressed with the persistency of the light precipitation. Its not coming down anywhere near hard enough to stick but its enough to make the road/parking lots wet.

 

I'd say welcome to the upslope region, but of course you've already lived in Jonesville and know how it goes. Youre not on the western slopes of the Greens there in Stowe like you were in Jonesville, but it certainly seems like you get in on the upslope. There was another 0.13" of liquid in the gauge here at the time of this morning's reading, so things have remained quite wet as you mentioned. The totals Ive recorded here for this event have been:

 

Event totals: 0.7 snow/0.49 liquid

 

Much of that precipitation has been snowfall, but its just been a touch too warm to accumulate for most of the period. With colder temperatures though, these days upon days of precipitation are a large part of where the higher snowfall numbers come from vs. surrounding locations.

 

On the topic of precipitation, weve reached November, so Ive totaled my CoCoRaHS numbers for October and added to my running list for the calendar year. I was up at midnight on the morning of Oct 1 and made the monthly precipitation split there during that big storm, but if Id simply added in that Oct 1 6:00 A.M. total as for most months, the October liquid precipitation number would be closing in on 10 inches. With the midnight break point its 8.83, which is by far the highest monthly total Ive seen since monitoring precipitation for CoCoRaHS.

 

Ive added the latest data to my running list of 2010 liquid precipitation (numbers for BTV to our west follow in parentheses, and for MPV to our east follow in brackets). For the year we have picked up 45.97 inches of liquid and are running at 135.1% of BTV and 129.5% of MPV.

 

JAN: 2.70 (2.41) [1.76]

FEB: 3.71 (2.13) [2.52]

MAR: 3.97 (2.85) [3.46]

APR: 4.51 (3.08) [3.04]

MAY: 3.21 (1.52) [2.25]

JUN: 6.85 (5.87) [6.14]

JUL: 2.94 (2.25) [2.62]

AUG: 3.13 (3.51) [2.54]

SEP: 6.12 (4.17) [4.07]

OCT: 8.83 (6.24) [7.11]

----------------------------

SUM: 45.97 (34.03) [35.50]

 

Looking at the sums, its easy to see the dramatic difference in precipitation between this location and BTV/MPV. Thats the beauty of having the hard data. Even though I probably pay more attention to the weather than the average person, just based on casual observations I would never have though that we ran so far ahead of those locations on precipitation. The difference in precipitation totals is already greater than 10 inches, with two months still to go this year and thats with the dry winter/spring that we had. Were presumably making up for the dry period with these last couple of months though. Based on the way the numbers are going, I wouldnt be surprised at all if we reached 50 inches of liquid for the calendar year. With the typical monthly precipitation totals Ive seen in my observations up to this point, we would have to have a very dry couple of months to miss that mark.

 

 

After several days of snow, I noticed that the clouds finally started to rise up the higher peaks of the Greens today, so I grabbed a quick shot when I was in Burlington:

 

The snow line there, as well as up on the sides of the Winooski Valley that I've seen, looks to be in the 1,500' range.

 

I'm surprised that nobody is talking about the storm for later this week. From the BTV NWS discussion, it doesnt sound like all that much in the way of snow, but it must be something to watch or else the point and click for Mt. Mansfield is way off: