Wednesday, March 30, 2011

 

 

I see that Powderfreak added in the BTV Storm Total Snow Forecast map for the upcoming event, so I’ve added in the latest BTV advisories map below.  It will be interesting to see what areas go to advisories and warnings as we move ahead.

 

http://jandeproductions.com/2011/30MAR11A.jpg

 

As we approach the end of the March, we are also getting very close to 40 inches of snowfall for the month at our location; currently the number stands at 39.6 inches. This March is actually in second place for snowfall out of the five seasons that I have been collecting data here, and is very close to catching up with March 2007, which came in with 40.2 inches.  There are some chances for snow over the next couple of days that could add a bit to that total, although whatever happens with March, if this next storm hits this area decently it would be a good start to the April numbers.

 

 

I’ve added this morning’s BTV Storm Total Snow Forecast map below, and the new afternoon one below that for comparison.  The projected numbers look to be up a bit in this area, which was a little surprising based on the comments I’ve been seeing on the forum, but as of the 3:54 P.M. BTV forecast discussion they suggest the storm track is decent for the north country:

 

CLOSED 500 MB/700 MB LOW THEN TAKES VERY FAVORABLE TRACK FOR SNOW FOR NORTH COUNTRY...AS IT PASSES ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND THEN REACHES GULF OF MAINE BY FRIDAY NIGHT.

 

http://jandeproductions.com/2011/30MAR11B.jpg

 

http://jandeproductions.com/2011/30MAR11C.jpg

 

 

 

Thursday, March 31, 2011

 

 

I’ve added the updated advisories and warnings map from BTV, but their projected accumulations map looks similar to yesterday, so I’ll just refer to the one that was already posted in the thread.  This morning Roger Hill suggested the potential for 1 to 2 feet in the Green Mountains, with 6 to 10 or 8 to 14 for some valley locations and the potential for school closures.  Looking at the winter storm warnings from BTV, it seems that the biggest totals are more south of here, although as is often the case, if upslope gets into the picture later in the storm cycle, the Northern Greens seem to do pretty well.  The current point forecast for our location in the Winooski Valley at ~500’ suggests 5 to 10 inches through tomorrow, and then additional snow Friday night, Saturday, and Saturday night.  We’ll have to see how this system goes around here, but similar to ’07-’08, we would be closing in on the 200-inch mark for seasonal snowfall at our location if we get a decent dump.

 

http://jandeproductions.com/2011/31MAR11A.jpg

 

 

I just stopped in at the BTV NWS website and noticed that they have updated their Storm Total Snow Forecast map as of 9:31 A.M. this morning.  Comparing it to the one from 3:07 P.M. yesterday one can see a few trends.  Totals are fairly similar or just a touch downward in the northern 1/3 of the state, and very obvious now is the large area of pink and purple in the central part of the state where the projected accumulations have gone up.  Totals seem fairly similar out in the Adirondacks, with a little bump up in the Saint Lawrence Valley area.

 

http://jandeproductions.com/2011/31MAR11B.jpg

 

 

 

The NWS in Burlington has updated their Storm Total Snow Forecast map as others have mentioned, so I’ve added the mid morning version first, and then the newest map right below that for comparison.  Projected snow totals dropped off a few inches in general all around the forecast area and a more obvious gradient of snowfall amounts from west to east is now apparent:

 

http://jandeproductions.com/2011/31MAR11B.jpg

 

http://jandeproductions.com/2011/31MAR11C.jpg

 

 

 

Friday, April 01, 2011

 

 

There was nothing falling at the house at 5:30 A.M. this morning, but by 6:00 A.M. when I was making my CoCoRaHS observations, light snow had started.  That snowfall quickly tapered off as I headed west toward the Champlain Valley, and there was nothing here in Burlington but clouds until around 7:30 A.M. when light snow started to fall.  Nothing has accumulated here, but the mountains to the east are hidden by a wall of white, and I can see by web cam that it’s accumulating at the house, I can see that it’s snowing and accumulating at the house, with probably a few tenths of an inch down.  Winter storm warnings have been dropped west of the western slopes, and the projected snow totals on the Storm Total Snow Forecast have been tapered back a bit more.  I’ve added the latest graphics from the BTV NWS below:

 

http://jandeproductions.com/2011/01APR11A.jpg

 

http://jandeproductions.com/2011/01APR11B.jpg

 

 

Event totals: 0.3” Snow/0.17” L.E.
 

Friday 4/1/2011 6:00 P.M. update:  It seemed to snow most of the day in Burlington, a very wet snow that was flirting with being rain at times; temperatures were too warm for any of it to accumulate however.  I watched the weather at the house via web cam, and after the initial 0.3 inches that accumulated this morning, temperatures at this altitude/longitude got too warm during the day for anything else to build up.  From what I could tell the snow continued to fall all day as it did in Burlington, but the initial accumulation melted.  At 6:00 P.M. I found 0.17” of liquid in the rain gauge, and non-accumulating snowfall continued.

 

In the higher elevations around here the snow accumulated at least a bit better, but even there the accumulation seemed to be a struggle the farther north and west one went.  I’ve added the north to south list of accumulations for Vermont resorts that have made afternoon and evening updates for this event; the accumulation at Burke really stands out, presumably due to its eastern location:

 

Burke: 16”

Smuggler’s Notch: 2”

Stowe: 3”

Bolton Valley: 2”

Mad River Glen: 2”

Sugarbush: 1”

Pico: 5”

Killington: 5”

Magic Mountain: 6”

Stratton: 7”

Mount Snow: 3”

 

The non-accumulating snowfall continued here into the evening, but at some point after 8:00 P.M. the temperature appears to have dropped to a point that is permitting accumulation down at this elevation.  It’s been snowing pretty nicely at times with some larger flakes above ½” in diameter, and as of 10:00 P.M. there’s another 0.6” of snow on the snowboard.

 

Some details from the 6:00 P.M. Waterbury observations are below:

 
New Snow: 0.3 inches
New Liquid: 0.17 inches
Temperature: 34.5 F
Sky: Light Snow (1-3 mm flakes)
Snow at the stake: 19.0 inches
 
 
Saturday, April 02, 2011
 
 
Event totals: 1.3” Snow/0.27” L.E.
 

Saturday 4/2/2011 6:00 A.M. update:  We picked up an inch of 10% H2O snow overnight, and for the VT resorts that have updated their storm totals this morning, I’ve got the north to south list of storm totals below:

 

Jay Peak: 6”

Smuggler’s Notch: 4”

Stowe: 6”

Bolton Valley: 6”

Mad River Glen: 4”

Sugarbush: 3”

Killington: 6”

Okemo: 5”

Magic Mountain: 6”

Stratton: 8”

Mount Snow: 3”

 
 

Some details from the 6:00 A.M. Waterbury observations are below:

 
New Snow: 1.0 inches
New Liquid: 0.10 inches
Snow/Water Ratio: 10.0
Snow Density: 10.0% H2O
Temperature: 32.5 F
Sky: Flurries
Snow at the stake: 20.0 inches
 
 

powderfreak, on 02 April 2011 - 04:06 PM, said:

Up at 3,000ft the High Road snow stake is at 67"... 3,700ft Mansfield co-op stake was 97" yesterday afternoon. Snowpack increases rapidly with elevation.

 

There's a great snowpack in the high elevations; Bolton has decided to extend their season thanks to all the snow.  We were up today for some turns, and we generally found 6" to 8" of snow in the higher elevations around 3,000', with about 4" down at 1,500'.  Even though the storm pulled east and didn't really hit us hard here, it was more than enough for some great skiing.  The sun wanted to work the powder when the snow and clouds pulled away, but there was a cool breeze that was definitely fighting that in the higher elevations.  I added a few shots from the day below, and the rest of the details and pictures are at our website.

 
http://jandeproductions.com/2011/02APR11E.jpg
 
http://jandeproductions.com/2011/02APR11M.jpg
 
http://jandeproductions.com/2011/02APR11N.jpg