December 2nd, 2011 – Waterbury Winter Weather Event Updates

 

A short summary of this winter storm is also available in the J&E Productions web log.

 

 

Thursday, December 1st, 2011

 

 

Listening to Roger Hill’s first broadcast this morning, it sounds like the upcoming snow chances are tomorrow afternoon when that small frontal system comes through, and then the first half of next week with that strung out system.  That one has some warmth with it, but certainly the potential for some snow.  The BTV NWS discussion talks about both of these events as well.

 

 

Friday, December 2nd, 2011

 

 

Listening to Roger Hill’s forecast from this morning, snow showers and squalls should be coming through this afternoon with the frontal passage.  He’s not expecting much in the way of travel issues on the valley floors, but the heights of land could be a little tricky, and for accumulations he’s thinking a dusting to a half inch.  The BTV NWS is going with up to 2 inches, and I added the their Hazardous Weather Outlook below

 

000
FLUS41 KBTV 020712
HWOBTV
 
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
212 AM EST FRI DEC 2 2011
 
NYZ026>031-034-035-087-VTZ001>010-016>018-030715-
NORTHERN ST. LAWRENCE-NORTHERN FRANKLIN-EASTERN CLINTON-
SOUTHEASTERN ST. LAWRENCE-SOUTHERN FRANKLIN-WESTERN CLINTON-
WESTERN ESSEX-EASTERN ESSEX-SOUTHWESTERN ST. LAWRENCE-GRAND ISLE-
WESTERN FRANKLIN-ORLEANS-ESSEX-WESTERN CHITTENDEN-LAMOILLE-CALEDONIA-
WASHINGTON-WESTERN ADDISON-ORANGE-EASTERN FRANKLIN-
EASTERN CHITTENDEN-EASTERN ADDISON-
212 AM EST FRI DEC 2 2011
 
THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHERN NEW YORK...CENTRAL
VERMONT...NORTHEAST VERMONT AND NORTHWEST VERMONT.
 
.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.
 
A FAST MOVING COLD FRONT WILL BRING A PERIOD OF SNOW SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLE SNOW SQUALLS TODAY TO NORTHERN NEW YORK AND CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN VERMONT. THESE SNOW SHOWERS AND SQUALLS WILL LIKELY OCCUR
ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK LATE THIS MORNING INTO EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON...AND THEN ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN VERMONT DURING
THE EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON HOURS. VERY LOW VISIBILITY AND A QUICK
DUSTING TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS ACTIVITY AND
MAY RESULT IN SLOW TRAVEL CONDITIONS FOR A TIME. THE HIGHEST SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS WILL OCCUR ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK AND ACROSS THE
NORTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS IN VERMONT. SNOW MAY BE MIXED WITH RAIN
IN THE IMMEDIATE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY.

 

The next snow potential beyond that is the Monday through Wednesday period; Roger said we’re potentially close to the rain/snow dividing line up here, so how much rain vs. how much snow falls will really depend on where that sets up.  Roger was leaning more toward the rain side at this point, but it could be quite a good slug of rain, so it could get interesting for places that get into the snow.  It should be fun to watch in any event; it would be nice to have one of those Jay Peak specials, although the overnight run of the ECMWF does have less snow than the midday run from yesterday.  BTV NWS is also thinking mostly rain based on their discussion, with more snow toward the end of the event.

 

 

View Postadk, on 2 December 2011 - 08:30 AM, said:

Jspin....with the 0c 850 isotherm modeled location I don't really think above 3k is going to see mostly rain. BTV forecasts focus sub 2000ft and I guess Rog and I differ with "mostly rain."

 

View Postpowderfreak, on 2 December 2011 - 08:59 AM, said:

I've been very partial to the EURO lately and it’s got us raining for like 3 days straight, haha. I am going to want it to start to shift colder here over the next 24-36 hours because if it locks into this solution then we'll be wet and not white. I sort of like the GGEM's depiction though of a light snow event followed by a larger mixed precipitation event later in the week.

I'm not sold on the snow but I'm starting to take on the pessimistic "mountain operations" view that Mother Nature will not be helping us out this year, haha. I've been spending way too much time in this building... need to go down to the marketing office to get a bit of optimism haha. Up here we plan for the worst case scenario and down there they plan for the best case scenario.

 

Roger is usually pretty good about mentioning the snow even if it’s only going to be for the highest elevations, since he focuses on North-Central Vermont and knows how important mountain weather/snowfall is around here, but he very easily could have been focusing on just the more populated elevations this far in advance.  He absolutely left the door open for snow though (at least at the point of his 6:15 AM broadcast) – he mentioned that the rain/snow line (in terms of latitude) could still end up down by us, or up around Montreal.  PF, certainly your snow disposition is on the pessimistic side most of the time, and I’ve assumed that’s an “occupational hazard” and part of your professionalism.  The same goes for adk, although he’s not quite as pessimistic as you, hehe.  I certainly prefer that over folks throwing out huge numbers all over the place just for the fun of it, but I get it that that’s less of an issue for guys that are excited and simply having fun with their hobby.  I find that things are generally very professional and conservative from the NNE crew on the forum, which I enjoy.  One thing that makes that easier is that with so many snow chances up here in the north, there’s plenty of snow to talk about even from a conservative slant – with latitude, elevation, and upslope on your side, it tends to snow more often than not.  The NNE discussion currently going on from the mets and forecasters is great because clearly it means there’s some potential out there for some snow next week.

 

 

On another note – clouds are dropping on Mansfield right now and it looks like it wants to snow.

 

 

View Postborderwx, on 2 December 2011 - 01:58 PM, said:

it's now spittin’ snow here in town

 

Just got out of a seminar so I’m not sure when it started, but it’s snowing here in Burlington now as well – pretty light and no accumulation to report at this elevation (~400’).

 

 

Event totals: 0.3” Snow/0.06” L.E.

 

I’m not sure of the temperature, but it was raining lightly when I left Burlington around 5:00 P.M.  At the Waterbury Park and Ride, the precipitation looked like a mixture of rain and snow, and the only accumulations I saw were a fairly thin coating of slush on the cars.  True to form though, once I hit the Cider House a couple miles west toward the spine, I started seeing accumulations of snow on the grass, and at the house I found 0.3” of slushy snow on the snowboard and a temperature of 33.3 F.  The snow picked up for a bit after the 6:00 P.M. board clearing, and we received another tenth of an inch of snow, but the snowfall has tapered off since then and it’s very light now.  It is nice to have the first accumulation of December in the books though, hopefully there will be plenty more to come.

 

Some details from the 6:00 P.M. observations are below:

 

New Snow: 0.3 inches

New Liquid: 0.06 inches

Snow/Water Ratio: 5.0

Snow Density: 20.0% H2O

Temperature: 33.3 F

Sky: Light Snow (1-2 mm flakes)

Snow at the stake: Trace

 

 

Saturday, December 3rd, 2011

 

 

Event totals: 0.4” Snow/0.07” L.E.

 

It looks like this event is complete here, so final totals are listed above.  The ground is white with a dusting of snow.

 

 

 

 

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