Wednesday, March 9th, 2011

 
 

I just saw that BTV has winter weather advisories up for the coming event. They're suggesting 2 to 4 inches of snow, then some mix/frozen stuff, just like Powderfreak said he was thinking in the "Turn out the lights" thread.  

 

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE 

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 

215 PM EST WED MAR 9 2011 

 
VTZ003-004-006>008-010-012-101000-
 

/O.NEW.KBTV.WW.Y.0012.110310T0500Z-110311T0000Z/ 

 

ORLEANS-ESSEX-LAMOILLE-CALEDONIA-WASHINGTON-ORANGE-WINDSOR-INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NEWPORT...ISLAND POND...JOHNSON...STOWE...ST. JOHNSBURY...MONTPELIER...BRADFORD...RANDOLPH...SPRINGFIELD...WHITE RIVER JUNCTION 

 

215 PM EST WED MAR 9 2011 

 

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 7 PM EST THURSDAY...  

 

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BURLINGTON HAS ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 7 PM EST THURSDAY.  

 

* LOCATIONS...CENTRAL AND EASTERN VERMONT.  

 

* HAZARD TYPES...MIXED WINTRY PRECIPITATION.  

 

* ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 2 TO 4 INCHES...ALONG WITH UP TO A TENTH OF AN INCH OF ICE.  

 

* TIMING...SNOW WILL DEVELOP ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN VERMONT DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS THURSDAY. SNOW WILL GRADUALLY MIX WITH SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN LATE THURSDAY MORNING...WITH POCKETS OF FREEZING RAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON IN SHELTERED VALLEYS.  

 

* IMPACTS...SLIPPERY ROAD CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE MORNING COMMUTE ON THURSDAY...PERSISTING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS IN SHELTERED VALLEY LOCATIONS.  

 

* WINDS...SOUTHEAST 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH.  

 

* TEMPERATURES...IN THE UPPER 20S.  

 

* VISIBILITIES...OCCASIONALLY LESS THAN ONE HALF MILE IN SNOW DURING THURSDAY MORNING.  

 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW...SLEET...OR FREEZING RAIN WILL CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR SLIPPERY ROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES...AND USE CAUTION WHILE DRIVING.  

 
$$
 
 

BTV’s updated graphics are up for the coming system, so I’ve added them below.  

 

Like Scott said, the point forecasts for the mountains around here suggest a 3-5, 3-6-inch snowfall.  Our point forecast in the valley suggests 2 to 3 inches of snow, which falls through tomorrow afternoon, then liquid precipitation in the Thursday night through Friday night period, then snow works back in for Saturday and Sunday.  

 
http://jandeproductions.com/2011/09MAR11A.jpg
 
http://jandeproductions.com/2011/09MAR11B.jpg
 

Allenson, on 09 March 2011 - 08:06 AM, said:

It's gonna be interesting when all this deep snow starts to let go over the next month. Lots of water locked up.
I've been thinking of doing a core to see what the snow/water equivelent is here--maybe 6" or more...?

 

powderfreak, on 09 March 2011 - 08:21 AM, said:

Yeah I'm very curious as well. I've been talking with Greg Hanson, the senior hydrologist at WFO BTV, because we are going to try and do liquid measurements next year off our snow boards... but for this spring he's trying to get us an Adirondack Snow Sampler so we can give him some liquid equivalents at our snow study areas. He said they gave all there's out UVM and Lyndon State geography/met students so they can do an analysis for a school project. I've seen some of those kids out on Mansfield so I'm hoping to get my hands on their data. Next season we are going to do a bi-weekly snowpack assessment for BTV but I'd like to try it out this spring just because we have such a solid snowpack (ranging from 40" to 90", bottom to top) that has got to have a lot of liquid in it.Hopefully all of this releases slowly because even the lowlands io the Champlain Valley have over 30" on the ground.

 

That would be great to have liquid analyses from the mountain Scott, the ones from the stake are nice, but based on the numbers we see for snowfall, it makes one curious if everythng is being caught in their gauge.  

 

I've been wanting to do a snowpack core, and a few weeks back Chuck McGill from CoCoRaHS sent us an email encouraging folks to do them them.  So with the recent comments and the current snowpack it seemed like a good time.  Anyway, I did one this evening and the snowpack here contained 7.84 inches of liquid.  

 
 

I’m not sure what time it started, but as of 11:00 P.M. we’ve got light snow falling here.  

 
 
Thursday, March 10th, 2011
 
 
Event totals: 1.5” Snow/0.15” L.E.
 

Thursday 3/10/2011 6:00 A.M. update:  This morning at 6:00 A.M. there were 1.5 inches of 10% H2O snow on the snowboard.  It was coming down with moderate intensity at a bit over a half inch per hour, because when I checked the new accumulation at 6:45 A.M. another 0.4 inches had built up.  There was certainly some disparity in snowfall east and west of the Greens this morning.  On my drive through the Winooski Valley, I heard some granular flakes hit the windshield to the west of Bolton, but that was brief and it was quickly back to regular flakes.  By Richmond though, there was basically no snow in that air, nor did it look like they had even picked up any snow at all.  It was quite a difference in precipitation from just 10 miles to the east.  From there on westward the roads were just wet blacktop, whereas they had previously been covered with snow.  Snowfall did return once I got to Williston, but in the Champlain Valley at that point there really hadn’t been much in terms of accumulation.  There has been a bit of accumulation now on elevated surfaces here at UVM, but paved surfaces are just wet.  Checking on my web cam I can see that there’s been another 2.2 inches of accumulation since this morning, putting the event at 3.7 inches so far.  As of 10:00 A.M. the snow seems to even been melting on elevated surfaces here at UVM, but it’s still snowing steadily.  

 

With this latest snow, the ’10-‘11 total at the house has actually pulled ahead of ‘07-‘08 for the first time, making it the snowiest I’ve recorded through this date of the season.  The ‘07-‘08 season was quite strong on snowfall, so that says something about the way this season has gone, especially with the way that November contributed very little snow to the total.  

 

Some details from the 6:00 A.M. observations are below:  

 
New Snow: 1.5 inches
New Liquid: 0.15 inches
Snow/Water Ratio: 10.0
Snow Density: 10.0% H2O
Temperature: 30.4 F
Sky: Moderate Snow (1-3 mm flakes)
Snow at the stake: 37.5 inches
 

powderfreak, on 10 March 2011 - 01:35 PM, said:

This is incredible. Still pounding heavy snow!!
5.5" at 1,500ft
8.0" at 3,000ft
Wow!

 

That's great to hear Scott, it would be nice to get as much of the moisture as possible in the form of frozen.  Bolton was reporting 5 inches up top as of noontime, although on the website they say that they are shut down today because of winds.  

 
 
Event totals: 3.7” Snow/0.46” L.E.
 

Thursday 3/10/2011 6:00 P.M. update:  In Burlington today the snow continued into the afternoon, but with warm temperatures, there wasn’t any additional accumulation to speak of.  Eventually the precipitation became all rain, and as I headed east into the mountains around 5:00 P.M., it continued as plain rain until I got to the east of Richmond.  Some snow started mixing in there, and that’s what the precipitation was all the way through to the house.  

 

After I cleared the 1.5 inches of snow from this morning, I knew it was going to be one of those warming events where I might miss the maximum accumulation of snow in the afternoon, so I monitored it by web cam.  The new snow topped out at 2.2 inches, although it has since settled down a bit due to the mixed precipitation.  The stack contained 0.31 inches of liquid, which includes part of the mixed precipitation, but if the snow continued on at the same density as it did this morning, 0.22 inches of that would be from the snow.  

 

It was great to get Scott’s snowfall updates from Stowe today, I’ve added the latest snow totals I’ve seen for the Vermont ski areas that have updated this evening in the usual north to south list:  

 

Jay Peak: 6”

Smuggler’s Notch: 10”

Stowe: 8”

Bolton Valley: 8”

Mad River Glen: 6”

Sugarbush: 5”

Pico: 7”

Killington: 7”

Okemo: 4”

Magic Mountain: 4”

Stratton: 4”

Mount Snow: 4”

 

Some details from the 6:00 P.M. Waterbury observations are below:  

 
New Snow: 2.7 inches
New Liquid: 0.31 inches
Snow/Water Ratio: 7.1
Snow Density: 14.1% H2O
Temperature: 34.7 F
Sky: Snow/Rain
Snow at the stake: 36.5 inches
 
 
Friday, March 11th, 2011
 
 
Event totals: 3.7” Snow/0.49” L.E.
 

Thursday 3/10/2011 6:00 P.M. update:  It was an easy round of analyses this morning, with no snow overnight and thus no core sample needed.  I did find 0.03” of new liquid in the gauge this morning, bringing the L.E. to just shy of a half inch for this event.  The sky was cloudy at the house with a temperature of 37.4 F, although in the Burlington area there are notable amounts of blue sky visible.  

 

Snow is back in even in our valley point forecast tonight however, and persists through Sunday night, so we’ll have to watch for that.  Looking beyond the weekend, the NWS discussion suggests clear conditions for Monday and Tuesday, and then another couple of systems with snow chances in the middle to late part of the week.  

 
 

Powderfreak mentioned updates to some of the recent snow totals in the Northern New England thread over at Americanwx.com, so I’ve updated the list below:  

 

Jay Peak: 11”

Smuggler’s Notch: 10”

Stowe: 10”

Bolton Valley: 10”

Mad River Glen: 6”

Sugarbush: 5”

Pico: 12”

Killington: 12”

Okemo: 4”

Magic Mountain: 4”

Stratton: 4”

Mount Snow: 4”

 

The notable updates were in the storm totals for the Northern Vermont Ski Areas and the Killington region.

 

Looking ahead we’ve got some light snow coming in for the weekend, fair weather for Monday and Tuesday, and then two potential snow-producing systems in the middle to late part of next week.