November 11th, 2011 – Waterbury Winter Weather Event Updates


A short summary associated with this winter storm is also available in the J&E Productions web log.



Thursday, November 10th, 2011



View Postadk, on 10 November 2011 - 06:44 AM, said:

I think we have a period of sustained orographic snow showers but nothing crazy. The flow pattern is generally good and some models actually show that 0-5kft column moistening up with some lake moisture. regardless I think we're talking at most over all 2-4 across the very highest terrain.


It looks like the latest NWS point and click for Mt. Mansfield is right in line with your thoughts adk:


Tonight: Rain and snow, becoming all snow after 11pm. Low around 25. North wind between 6 and 14 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New snow accumulation of 1 to 3 inches possible.

Veterans Day: Scattered snow showers. Cloudy, with a high near 30. Northwest wind between 14 and 18 mph, with gusts as high as 31 mph. Chance of precipitation is 40%. New snow accumulation of less than one inch possible.


It’s been almost a week since the last round of snow, so it will be nice to have a refresher to get things whitened up.  Roger Hill and Bob Minsenberger have been mentioning it in their forecasts.  Roger indicated that folks may want to watch out on the roads in some of the higher passes tomorrow morning in the north, but it shouldn’t be too bad for the valleys.  It looks like some activity remains through tomorrow, and then he said to be on the lookout for a little morning flare up on Saturday.


Typically I’d think this would at least get the junkboarders going for another round of outings, but perhaps not as many as usual with the great skiing that last month delivered.


The next weather disturbance appears to be coming at the beginning of next week, although I haven’t seen any snow mentioned with that one yet.



Friday, November 11th, 2011



View PostJ.Spin, on 10 November 2011 - 07:44 AM, said:

It’s been almost a week since the last round of snow, so it will be nice to have a refresher to get things whitened up.


It’s a little hard to tell with the clouds and dim morning light, but I was looking southward from I-89 and there appeared to be some white up there around the Camel’s Hump massif.  The Mt. Mansfield temperature at 3,950’ was well below freezing at 27 F, so we’ll have to see what’s out there if the clouds break a bit.


In his morning broadcast, Roger Hill indicated that beyond the current stretch through tomorrow, the next period to watch out for frozen precipitation will be Tuesday into Wednesday.



View Postpowderfreak, on 11 November 2011 - 08:09 AM, said:

Mansfield trails are white when viewed from my bedroom window so it definitely snowed up there... no question about it.


Thanks for the update PF; looks great.  The sun just came out here in Burlington and the sky is mostly clear, but clouds still haven’t broken away from the Greens enough yet for me to see the snow from our windows.  Perhaps the clouds will clear before the next round of precipitation comes through with the upper level trough.  Looking at the Intellicast colored radar, it looks like there’s some LES coming off Lake Ontario, and Lake Erie as well:




View Postpowderfreak, on 11 November 2011 - 02:29 PM, said:

Upslope snow showers and squalls continue... radar shows the moisture getting ripped out over the Spine.

Keep it coming!


We've got an awesome “Big Sky” view here on the hill at UVM of the snow crashing out in front of Mansfield. It looks like a massive thunderstorm in front of the mountain – except that the precipitation has more of our classic “white wall” color.  It does look like it’s borderline turning to gray as the snow hits the valley floor, but with that said, we’re even getting spits of snow/graupel here in Burlington.



I wasn’t around at the house to see if we accumulated any snow from today’s earlier activity, but we picked up 0.04” of liquid, and the snow is certainly accumulating now.  The snowfall is fairly light, but this will go down as the first accumulation for the month.  Unfortunately, the BTV radar appears to be down for maintenance, so it’s hard to see what else is out there coming down the pike.  The point and click has us down for a low of 26 F and continued chance of snow through tomorrow though.



Saturday, November 12th, 2011



We headed up to Bolton today, and I can pass along some information on the snow.  We don’t have any snow remaining down in the Winooski Valley, but heading up the access road, snow first appears just above the base of Timberline at around 1,600’ – 1,700’.  There was pretty solid cover above 2,000’, and around 2 inches of accumulation at around 2,500’.  We didn’t go any higher than that, but it felt like a pretty standard November day, with temperatures in the 30s F and a bit of snow on the ground, and indeed it’s pretty typical to have some snow for the opening day of rifle season.  As of the latest report there are two inches at the Mt. Mansfield Stake, and although the average depths at the stake for this date look to be around 4 inches, I’m sure the snow depths are pretty variable at this point.  I’ve added a shot of the snow below, and I’ve got a couple more at our website.






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