Wednesday, January 12th, 2011

 

 

We picked up a final tenth of an inch with yesterday’s snow shower activity to bring the total for that event to an even 18.0 inches.  Thanks to the big shot of upslope on Sunday it easily became our second largest event of the season.

 

Next on tap is the current Nor’easter, and we were seeing some of the first flakes this morning when I made my observations.  Our current NWS point forecast calls for 7-13 inches through Thursday, with some of that presumably from upslope as we move into the latter part of the event, but we’ll have to see how that goes:

 

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...

AS OF 434 AM EST WEDNESDAY...NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND COLD AIR ADVECTION TAKE OVER ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THURSDAY WILL HAVE THE BETTER CHANCE OF SEEING SOME UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS BUT FURTHER DRYING THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY WILL LIMIT PRECIPITATION CHANCES.

 

I added a couple of the BTV NWS page graphics for the event below:

 

 

 

 

I just saw Mad River’s post in the observations thread about our county (Washington) being upgraded to a Winter Storm Warning.  With the 7-13” point forecast they have for our area near the northern part of the county, I was surprised they hadn’t done it earlier.  Any northward increases are good news for the local mountains, which have needed a substantial synoptic dump. 

 

It’s been snowing here in Burlington since probably 8:00 A.M. or so, and it was light for a while but has definitely ramped up now.  I just checked outside and I’d say there are a couple of inches of accumulation already – it seems like some substantial, medium-weight, synoptic snow.  I should have some observations from back in our county later, and I’ll put them in the observations thread.  It will be interesting to see how things are going there – the wife and the boys have school since they are in Lamoille County and accumulations there are expected to be less.

 

Below, I added the pertinent NWS near term discussion and the updated warnings/advisories map from the BTV page. 

 

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 11 PM THIS EVENING/...

AS OF 1051 AM EST WEDNESDAY...QUICK UPDATE TO THIS MORNING`S PACKAGE...MAINLY TO UPGRADE ADVISORIES ACROSS ADDISON/WASHINGTON COUNTIES TO WARNINGS BASED OFF CURRENT RADAR SIGNATURES...AND RECENT REPORTS FROM OUR SPOTTER COMMUNITY OF 3 TO 6 INCHES. LOW PRESSURE NEAR PROVINCETOWN MASSACHUSETTS WILL PUSH SLOWLY EAST AND OFFSHORE TODAY...WITH BANDS OF MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY HEAVY SNOW CONTINUING TO PIVOT SLOWLY WEST FROM THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND POINTS EAST THROUGH MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. MUCH LIGHTER ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY. ONLY MASSAGED SNOWFALL TOTALS SLIGHTLY THROUGH MID EVENING...AND OTHER THAN HEADLINE ADJUSTMENTS NOTED ABOVE REST OF FCST ESSENTIALLY UNCHANGED. MOTORISTS PLANNING TRAVEL SOUTH INTO CENTRAL/SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TODAY/THIS EVENING SHOULD PREPARE FOR DIFFICULT TO HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS. ENJOY YOUR DAY.

 

 

I like the last comment in the discussion there – I hope to continue doing so!

 

 

Event totals: 7.7” Snow/0.84” L.E.

Wednesday 1/12/2011 4:00 P.M. update:  I was really surprised how hard it was snowing in Burlington this afternoon, and they had already picked up several inches of snow when I was leaving around 3:30 P.M. or so.  It was actually snowing harder there than it was at the house, although we’d already picked up a good shot of snow at some point.  At 4:00 P.M. I found 7.7 inches of snow on the snowboard, and boy was it dense!  My coring cylinder, which has a diameter of 6.8 cm, produced a core comprised of 77.5 mL, which was the biggest individual chunk of liquid I’ve collected from a snow stack in a while.  Those 7.7 inches contained 0.84 inches of liquid!  The snow had very low compressibility, and the density came in at hefty 10.9% H2O, quite different from the 6.1 inches on Sunday that had a density of 2.3% H2O.  It was a 10-hour (6:00 A.M. – 4:00 P.M.) accumulation, but as the biggest snow stack of the season so far, I grabbed a quick picture:

 

 

It’s still been snowing out there since I got home, but not nearly at the intensity that it must have been cranking before.  My wife said it snowed really hard even up in Morrisville, and the kids had an absolute blast at recess today.  I saw Powderfreak’s message about the upgrade to a Winter Storm Warning for Lamoille County, so I grabbed the latest BTV warning and accumulations maps.  Amounts have definitely gone up in the North Country, and this dense synoptic snow is going to be really good for the slopes.

 

 

 

 

 

Some details from the 4:00 P.M. observations are below:

New Snow: 7.7 inches
New Liquid: 0.84 inches
Snow/Water Ratio: 9.2
Snow Density: 10.9%
Temperature: 19.8 F
Sky: Light Snow (1-2 mm flakes)
Snow at the stake: 16.5 inches

 

 

Event totals: 9.2” Snow/0.91” L.E.

Wednesday 1/12/2011 10:00 P.M. update:  The snowfall hasn’t been very intense over the past 6 hours, but we are definitely getting bigger flakes now, and the density of the snow is less than half of what it was earlier.  We did pass 80 inches of snowfall for the season with this event, and are now about 8 inches ahead of the average I have for this point in the season.  If someone had told me a couple of days ago that we’d be getting almost an inch of liquid out of this system this far north, I would have been quite surprised.

 

Some details from the 10:00 P.M. observations are below:

New Snow: 1.5 inches
New Liquid: 0.07 inches
Snow/Water Ratio: 21.4
Snow Density: 4.7%
Temperature: 20.3 F
Sky: Light Snow (2-8 mm flakes)
Snow at the stake: 17.0 inches

 

 

 

Thursday, January 13th, 2011

 

 

Event totals: 11.4” Snow/0.95” L.E.

Thursday 1/13/2011 6:00 A.M. update:  We got another 2.2 inches of what seems like upslope snow overnight, with big flakes up to 15 mm in diameter.  It’s still snowing and there’s another 0.8 inches on the board already, so we will break the 1-foot mark with this event.  With the synoptic snow down and this fluffy upslope on top, it’s a recipe for some excellent skiing on the slopes.  The totals I’ve seen for the Vermont resorts with this storm added in seem to be around 2 to 3 feet over the past week.

 

Some details from the 6:00 A.M. observations are below:

New Snow: 2.2 inches
New Liquid: 0.04 inches
Snow/Water Ratio: 55.0
Snow Density: 1.8%
Temperature: 17.8 F
Sky: Light Snow (2-15 mm flakes)
Snow at the stake: 18.0 inches

 

 

Event totals: 12.2” Snow/0.96” L.E.

Thursday 1/13/2011 6:00 P.M. update:  There are just a few flurries out there this evening, and we didn’t accumulate any higher than the 0.8” of fluff that I measured this morning.  I ran the snow thrower for the heavy synoptic snow yesterday, but this evening the whole family went out and took care of the 4” or so of upslope by hand since it was so light and easy to push around.  It was a great night to be out, very calm here with the moon peeking through the clouds at times..

 

Some details from the 6:00 P.M. observations are below:

New Snow: 0.8 inches
New Liquid: 0.01 inches
Snow/Water Ratio: 80.0
Snow Density: 1.3%
Temperature: 17.5 F
Sky: Mostly Cloudy, Flurries
Snow at the stake: 17.5 inches

 

For those that provide them, here are some weekly snow totals I’ve seen from some Vermont areas listed north to south:

 

Jay Peak: 30”

Stowe: 29”

Bolton Valley: 33”

Sugarbush: 40”

Killington: 28”

 

 

Friday, January 14th, 2011

 

 

Event totals: 12.6” Snow/0.97” L.E.

Friday 1/14/2011 6:00 A.M. update:  The precipitation was just an occasional flurry yesterday evening when we were out shoveling, and there were some breaks in the clouds, but there was a resurgence in the snowfall overnight.  I found 0.4 inches of fluff on the board this morning, and steady light snow was falling at observation time.  I’m going to continue to throw accumulations with this snow into the Nor’easter, because there’s just not a well-defined new system to which I can add it.  Checking the BTV NWS discussion, they say that there is a mid level vortex passing through that is prompting this activity, but also that the moisture is somewhat residual.  I went back to the midnight version of the discussion and pasted a bit below:

 

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT

1242 AM EST FRI JAN 14 2011

 

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/...

AS OF 748 PM EST THURSDAY...SKIES WILL REMAIN MAINLY CLOUDY OVERNIGHT WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW FLURRIES...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN SECTIONS. SAT IMAGERY SHOWS LOW CLOUDS HOLDING FIRM ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. THE 00Z ALB SOUNDING SHOWS A VERY STRONG INVERSION NEAR 850MB...AND IT WILL BE DIFFICULT TO REMOVE TRAPPED MOISTURE/CLOUDINESS NEAR AND BELOW THIS INVERSION OVERNIGHT. THERE IS ALSO A MID-LEVEL VORT PASSING FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS CENTRAL NY INTO VT OVERNIGHT. JUST ENOUGH LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS TO GENERATE A FEW FLURRIES...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NRN MTNS.

 

By the way – thanks BTV NWS for having so many previous versions of the discussion available; it’s really nice to be able to go back and see the meteorologists’ comments on where our various bouts of snow are coming from.

 

On that note, there’s more intense snowfall coming down here in Burlington, with pretty large flakes up to ¾” in diameter.  Apparently that’s enhanced by the lake:

 

...LOW LEVEL NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW COMING ACROSS LAKE CHAMPLAIN IS ENHANCING SOME VERY LIGHT SNOW OVER THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF FRANKLIN...CHITTENDEN...AND ADDISON COUNTIES OF VERMONT. WILL MENTION AN INCH OR LESS OF SNOW THIS MORNING BEFORE THE PRECIPITATION IS MAINLY FLURRIES.

 

The snowfall here is actually pretty substantial and is accumulating on the roads, but it’s so fluffy that is doesn’t seem to be an issue for driving.  It is very scenic though.

 

Some details from the 6:00 A.M. Waterbury observations are below:

New Snow: 0.4 inches
New Liquid: 0.01 inches
Snow/Water Ratio: 430.0
Snow Density: 2.5%
Temperature: 13.3 F
Sky: Light Snow (2-5 mm flakes)
Snow at the stake: 17.0 inches

 

Below I added BTV’s map and numbers from the Nor’easter since I hadn’t seen it here yet.

 

 

 

NOUS41 KBTV 131538

PNSBTV

NYZ026>031-034-035-087-VTZ001>012-016>019-140336-

 

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT

SPOTTER REPORTS

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT

1036 AM EST THU JAN 13 2011

 

THE FOLLOWING ARE UNOFFICIAL OBSERVATIONS TAKEN DURING THE PAST

24 HOURS FOR THE STORM THAT HAS BEEN AFFECTING OUR REGION.

APPRECIATION IS EXTENDED TO HIGHWAY DEPARTMENTS...COOPERATIVE AND

COCORAHS OBSERVERS...SKYWARN SPOTTERS AND MEDIA FOR THESE REPORTS.

THIS SUMMARY IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON OUR HOME PAGE AT

WEATHER.GOV/BURLINGTON

 

********************STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL********************

 

LOCATION          STORM TOTAL     TIME/DATE   COMMENTS                  

                     SNOWFALL           OF

                     /INCHES/   MEASUREMENT

 

NEW YORK

 

...CLINTON COUNTY...

   4 ESE PERU             7.6   600 AM  1/13  COCORAHS               

   PERU                   3.0   740 AM  1/13  AMATEUR RADIO          

   NNW SCHUYLER FALLS     2.0   700 AM  1/13  COCORAHS               

 

...ESSEX COUNTY...

   WHITEFACE MOUNTAIN    15.0   337 PM  1/12  ELEV 4361 FT           

   2 N LAKE PLACID       13.0   815 AM  1/13  COCORAHS               

   LAKE PLACID           10.0   615 PM  1/12  ESTIMATED 10-12 INCHES 

   1 S TICONDEROGA        8.0   848 AM  1/13  HAM RADIO              

   3 SSW MORIAH           7.0   545 PM  1/12  SPOTTER - 1100 FEET    

 

...FRANKLIN COUNTY...

   1 ESE TUPPER LAKE      7.0   600 PM  1/12  PUBLIC                 

   1 SW MALONE            3.0   700 AM  1/13  CO-OP OBSERVER         

 

...ST. LAWRENCE COUNTY...

   SW HANNAWA FALLS       3.9   700 AM  1/13  COCORAHS               

   EDWARDS                2.5   740 AM  1/13  AMATEUR RADIO          

   1 NW EDWARDS           2.5   700 AM  1/13  COCORAHS               

 

VERMONT

 

...ADDISON COUNTY...

   1 NNE GOSHEN          14.0   819 AM  1/13  PUBLIC                 

   2 NW LINCOLN          13.3   700 AM  1/13  COCORAHS               

   CORNWALL              13.3   500 PM  1/12  PUBLIC                 

   3 ENE VERGENNES       11.5   938 AM  1/13  SPOTTER                 

   1 WNW ORWELL          11.0   955 AM  1/13  COCORAHS               

   2 NE SALISBURY        10.8   530 PM  1/12  PUBLIC                 

   2 N SALISBURY          7.5   500 PM  1/12  COOP OBSERVER          

 

...CALEDONIA COUNTY...

   3 NNW SHEFFIELD        8.5   730 AM  1/13  COCORAHS               

   4 N WALDEN             7.0   700 AM  1/13  CO-OP OBSERVER         

   2 SW SUTTON            6.6   920 AM  1/13  CO-OP OBSERVER         

   SE SHEFFIELD           6.5   800 AM  1/13  COCORAHS               

   ST JOHNSBURY           5.6   400 PM  1/12  CO-OP OBSERVER         

   2 NE SUTTON            5.0   700 AM  1/13  CO-OP OBSERVER         

   4 N NEWARK             4.0   143 PM  1/12  SPOTTER                

 

...CHITTENDEN COUNTY...

   JERICHO               15.5   734 AM  1/13  PUBLIC                 

   3 ENE HINESBURG       15.0   849 AM  1/13  HAM RADIO              

   HANKSVILLE            15.0   700 AM  1/13  CO-OP OBSERVER         

   4 NNE UNDERHILL       13.8   800 AM  1/13  COCORAHS               

   1 ESE NASHVILLE       13.5   655 AM  1/13  NWS EMPLOYEE           

   3 SSE RICHMOND        13.0   700 AM  1/13  COCORAHS               

   2 NW WESTFORD         11.4   700 AM  1/13  NWS EMPLOYEE           

   SOUTH BURLINGTON       9.8   710 AM  1/13  NWS OFFICE             

   WILLISTON              9.8   737 AM  1/13  SPOTTER                

   2 NNW WILLISTON        9.0   645 AM  1/13  NWS EMPLOYEE           

   1 NW WILLISTON         7.0   500 PM  1/12  SPOTTER                

   1 N ESSEX JUNCTION     6.4   800 AM  1/13  CO-OP OBSERVER         

 

...ESSEX COUNTY...

   GILMAN                 6.5   700 AM  1/13  CO-OP OBSERVER         

   2 SSE EAST HAVEN       4.8   134 PM  1/12  CO-OP OBSERVER         

   1 N ISLAND POND        4.0   900 AM  1/13  CO-OP OBSERVER         

   ISLAND POND            2.0   138 PM  1/12  CO-OP OBSERVER         

 

...FRANKLIN COUNTY...

   BAKERSFIELD           11.6   858 AM  1/13  SPOTTER                

   HIGHGATE CENTER        5.8   812 AM  1/13  SPOTTER                

   SWANTON                3.2   809 AM  1/13  SPOTTER                

   HIGHGATE FALLS         3.0   154 PM  1/12  CO-OP OBSERVER         

   ENOSBURG FALLS         2.0   159 PM  1/12  CO-OP OBSERVER          

 

...LAMOILLE COUNTY...

   2 SSW JEFFERSONVILLE  20.0   800 AM  1/13  FAA EMPLOYEE           

   JEFFERSONVILLE        16.0   628 AM  1/13  SPOTTER                

   CAMBRIDGE             14.0  1200 AM  1/13  SPOTTER                

   MORRISVILLE           12.5   730 PM  1/12  PUBLIC                 

   1 NW SOUTH CAMBRIDGE  12.0   901 PM  1/12  SPOTTER                

   5 N JEFFERSONVILLE    11.0   850 AM  1/13  CO-OP OBSERVER         

   3 NE HYDE PARK        11.0   630 AM  1/13  COCORAHS                

   SW STOWE               9.0   730 AM  1/13  COCORAHS               

   2 S STOWE              8.4   945 PM  1/12  SPOTTER                

 

...ORANGE COUNTY...

   RANDOLPH CENTER       11.0   934 PM  1/12  SPOTTER                

   2 WSW BROOKFIELD      10.0   745 AM  1/13  CO-OP OBSERVER         

   UNION VILLAGE DAM     10.0   700 AM  1/13  CO-OP OBSERVER         

   CORINTH                8.0   715 AM  1/13  CO-OP OBSERVER         

   2 SW SOUTH VERSHIRE    6.0   900 AM  1/13  SPOTTER                

 

...ORLEANS COUNTY...

   2 WNW STANNARD         8.3   430 PM  1/12  COCORAHS               

   7 SE MORGAN            8.1   700 AM  1/13  COCORAHS               

   1 WNW WESTFIELD        8.0   800 AM  1/13  COCORAHS                

   NNE CRAFTSBURY COMMO   8.0   800 AM  1/13  COCORAHS               

   3 SW JAY               8.0   634 AM  1/13  COOP OBSERVER          

   JAY PEAK               8.0   600 AM  1/13  CO-OP OBSERVER         

   3 ENE BARTON           7.4   700 AM  1/13  COCORAHS               

   NEWPORT                6.5   700 AM  1/13  CO-OP OBSERVER         

 

...RUTLAND COUNTY...

   DANBY FOUR CORNERS    14.0   830 AM  1/13  CO-OP OBSERVER         

   CASTLETON             11.5   500 PM  1/12  JCT OF ROUTES 4 AND 30 

   RUTLAND               10.0  1218 PM  1/12  AIRPORT                

 

...WASHINGTON COUNTY...

   2 W WAITSFIELD        13.0   700 AM  1/13  CO-OP OBSERVER         

   4 ENE CABOT           12.0   900 AM  1/13  COCORAHS               

   5 NNE WATERBURY       11.8   700 AM  1/13  COCORAHS               

   3 NW WATERBURY        11.5   600 AM  1/13  COCORAHS               

   2 SE WAITSFIELD       11.5   700 AM  1/13  COCORAHS               

   WATERBURY             10.5   739 AM  1/13  AMATEUR RADIO          

   3 NE WATERBURY        10.5   500 AM  1/13  COCORAHS               

   2 SW EAST CALAIS      10.3   600 AM  1/13  COCORAHS               

   1 SSW SOUTH WOODBURY  10.0   810 AM  1/13  SPOTTER                

   5 SW MARSHFIELD        9.8   545 AM  1/13  COCORAHS               

   4 WNW BERLIN           9.2   710 AM  1/13  COCORAHS               

   2 N NORTHFIELD         9.0   600 AM  1/13  COCORAHS               

   3 ENE MIDDLESEX        8.5   750 AM  1/13  COCORAHS               

   2 W WORCESTER          8.2   700 AM  1/13  CO-OP OBSERVER         

   MORETOWN               8.0   210 PM  1/12                         

   2 NNE WATERBURY CENT   8.0   600 PM  1/12  SPOTTER                

   1 SE NORTH FAYSTON     7.5   630 PM  1/12  SPOTTER                

 

...WINDSOR COUNTY...

   3 SSW NORTH SPRINGFI  16.0   645 PM  1/12  SPOTTER                

   1 WSW LUDLOW          13.8   700 AM  1/13  COCORAHS               

   1 N SPRINGFIELD       12.0   144 PM  1/12  SPOTTER                

   3 N POMFRET           11.1   700 AM  1/13  COCORAHS               

   3 S LUDLOW            11.0   700 AM  1/13  COCORAHS               

   N HARTLAND RES        11.0   700 AM  1/13  CO-OP OBSERVER         

   2 WSW UNION VILLAGE    9.2   815 AM  1/13  PUBLIC                 

   WOODSTOCK              8.0   800 AM  1/13  CO-OP OBSERVER         

 

 

$$

 

MUCCILLI

 

 

Event totals: 12.9” Snow/0.98” L.E.

Friday 1/14/2011 6:00 P.M. update:  We picked up another 0.3” of snow from today’s activity, and it wasn’t snowing at observation time, so this could be the break point before the clipper unless any of the possible flurry activity accumulates tonight.  BTV says the snow starts up with the clipper tomorrow afternoon around here.  Our point forecast suggests up to 2 inches, but the BTV discussion says 2 to 4 inches for the mountains, and 1 to 3 for the valleys:

 

.SHORT TERM /7 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...

AS OF 300 PM EST FRIDAY...ALBERTA CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL MOVE WEST TO EAST ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. PRECIPITATION WILL SPREAD WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA...BEGINNING EARLY SATURDAY ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK AND REACHING VERMONT BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. BEST VORTICITY ADVECTION WILL BE ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER. LEFT FRONT QUADRANT OF 250MB JET WILL ALSO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA DURING THIS TIME...THIS SUGGESTS SUFFICIENT LIFT WILL DEVELOP AND PRODUCE LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE AREA. EXPECT LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS...1-3 AT THE LOWER ELEVATIONS AND 2-4 INCHES IN THE MOUNTAINS. SYSTEM IS FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE AND LOOKING AT THE LIGHT SNOW TAPERING OFF ON SUNDAY AND MAINLY BECOME CONFINED TO THE MOUNTAINS AS FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE NORTHWEST WITH TIME. EVEN THE MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS IN THE WRAP AROUND MOISTURE SHOULD END SUNDAY NIGHT.    

 

We’ll see where we fall into that scheme, but the activity should run through Sunday.

 

Some details from the 6:00 A.M. Waterbury observations are below:

New Snow: 0.3 inches
New Liquid: 0.01 inches
Snow/Water Ratio: 30.0
Snow Density: 3.3%
Temperature: 14.9 F
Sky: Light Cloudy
Snow at the stake: 16.0 inches  

 

 

Saturday, January 15, 2011

 


Saturday 1/15/2011 6:00 A.M. update:  It’s crystal clear out there now, but at some point we got another 0.4 of fluff overnight.  Next system up is the clipper, and the NWS point forecast for this location (2 to 5.5 inches through Sunday) seems more in line now with the BTV discussion (2 to 4 inches in the mountain areas).

 

Some details from the 6:00 A.M. Waterbury observations are below:

New Snow: 0.4 inches
New Liquid: Trace
Temperature: 0.0 F
Sky: Clear
Snow at the stake: 16.0 inches