Wednesday, December 14th, 2011
The zone forecast is starting to look somewhat "wintery" aside from the 1/2 inch of rain coming Thursday.
I’m actually excited to see what the snow totals turn out to be at the end of next week in accordance with the list of events you noted in your post in the pattern change thread:
I think we've got some wintery chances at least over the
next 10 days... no big whoppers like we need but at least some things to keep
Tonight... flurries with a dusting-1"
Wed Night/Thurs... snow/sleet/zr to showers
Friday... snow showers up and down the cordillera on NW flow
Sunday/Monday...clipper like feature? more light snow?
Tuesday (a week out) this keeps looking more wintery...
That’s five potential winter events in the next week, so aside from the fact that our natural snowpack is on the low side, it’s hard to complain about that. Even when we’re in the zone and the Greens are cranking out their magic in mid season, we don’t typically have five winter events in a week, so this should be a lot of fun. The snowmakers have been working hard to put down a man made base, so each one of these events means a chance for skiing a bit of fresh snow on top of that. I’m a big fan of lining up the events and seeing how they verify like you did in your post. Anyway, event #1 is in the books already here with a tenth of an inch down – right in the range you mentioned. Hopefully these events can come to fruition and keep us cruising well ahead of December 2006 in terms of snowfall.
Friday, December 16th, 2011
As of 8am we are over to all snow at the 1,500ft base area. It suddenly looks a lot nicer out there with wind whipped flakes and milky white obscuring the hills.
I see that you’re already talking about it, but I was just about to comment – the upslope must be starting because from here at UVM I can see it starting to crash out all over the place along the spine. Clearly some of it is snow based on the look, but it also looks like in the lower elevations it’s still rain.
Saturday, December 17th, 2011
I'm curious what J.Spin got... he should be about ground zero as usual.
LOL, I didn’t even know this snow was coming – my wife got a kick out of that when she woke me up and said it was snowing and we already had an inch. Anyway, I’ll do a 7:00 A.M. analysis and report in. We’re actually off to Stowe today PF – we’ve got our annual training day for our school program where we get some training instruction, pick up our passes, etc. It’s kind of nice to have a bit of fresh snow out there, we’ve actually been pretty lucky with that on these early/mid-December training days at Stowe over the past few seasons.
Event totals: 1.1” Snow/0.04” L.E.
Some details from the 7:00 A.M. observations are below:
New Snow: 1.1 inches
New Liquid: 0.04 inches
Snow/Water Ratio: 27.5
Snow Density: 3.6% H2O
Temperature: 25.3 F
Sky: Flurries/Light Snow (~5 mm flakes)
Snow at the stake: 1.0 inches
Event totals: 1.3” Snow/0.04” L.E.
We were at Stowe today and it snowed the whole time on the mountain. It was generally light, but it just didn’t want to stop as Powderfreak said, so there were always big flakes in the air and it was quite a December scene. It wasn’t a huge dump, but even the few inches of fresh snow were enough to get folks pretty jazzed up. I’ll put up a couple of pictures later. We thought it felt cold out there, and assumed it was just our lack of acclimatization, but it actually was also pretty cold – the summit ridge was in the single digits with wind chills in the single digits below zero. On the way home we stopped in at the Alpine Mart on the Mountain Road for some gas and a snack, and the cashier asked how we were enjoying the sunshine. I told him that we’d been up on the mountain all day and we hadn’t seen much sun because it was snowing the whole time. He was pretty excited by that, and commented that they were expecting and other 2 to 4 inches tonight, and then we were going to get blitzed Thursday, Friday, and Saturday, with 8 to 10 inches on Christmas Eve. The woman next to me commented on how that was going to be horrible for travel, and he said the plows were going to be out all night. I hadn’t looked at the models in a while, but with the surprise shot of snow I could only assume everything had gone topsy-turvy with the forecast. Anyway, I think his estimate might be a little on the high side for tonight – the forecast seems to be more like partly cloudy and very cold. I do see the Monday, Thursday, and Saturday events on the ECMWF, but I’m not sure where he’s getting his weather information. It looks like the sun came out in parts of Waterbury, because the new snow had disappeared in a lot of spots east of the mountains, but one we headed back toward the spine the accumulations picked back up. The fluff we’d received overnight had certainly settled some, but I did find a couple of additional tenths on the snowboard. It’s also interesting to note that there seems to be more snow left on the west side of the range – we’re in South Burlington and they’ve got a good inch here, which is more than we saw back toward the center of Waterbury. They may have gotten in on some lake-effect snow or enhancement here.
Some details from the 3:00 P.M. Waterbury observations are below:
New Snow: 0.2 inches
New Liquid: Trace
Temperature: 20.3 F
Sky: Partly Cloudy
Sunday, December 18th, 2011
We were at Stowe today and it snowed the whole time on the mountain. It was generally light, but it just didn’t want to stop as Powderfreak said, so there were always big flakes in the air and it was quite a December scene. It wasn’t a huge dump, but even the few inches of fresh snow were enough to get folks pretty jazzed up. I’ll put up a couple of pictures later.
I put together a few pictures below from yesterday at Stowe. It was really great to get that surprise snow – it wasn’t a huge dump, but I had some really nice powder turns on our first run off the quad, and at least on the top half of the mountain I found that the new snow really enhanced the conditions for a while. I’ve got the full report from yesterday at our website.
I was also just looking at the 12Z ECMWF, and saw that there were four upcoming chances for winter weather on there: Monday, Wednesday, Friday, and Sunday/Monday. None looked huge, but that’s nice heading toward the holiday week. It sounds like the Wednesday even could be a bit messy though with regard to the frozen precipitation based on the BTV discussion.
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