November 23rd, 2012 – Waterbury Winter Weather Event Updates
Sunday, November 20th, 2011
yeah... then we can continue a conversation with ourselves
I love how if this were progged 150 miles further south at this point, on a Sunday night, this thread would have 150 users in it... growing pages of posts by the second. With people weenie-ing out in front of football and models... instead its just 3 of us or so.
Don’t worry PF, we’re here watching the show, although in typical NNE reticent fashion for now. I noticed you showed what looked like the ECMWF snowfall maps from Weather Underground in one of your posts – it’s been really fun having those to follow.
Monday, November 21st, 2011
...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING...
I haven’t seen them posted yet, so I grabbed the first round of BTV storm graphics and added them below – it’s interesting to have that gap in the western parts of Addison and Rutland Counties. We’re not too far out from the event now, but with the marginal temperatures at various elevations, it seems like there’s plenty of fine tuning to go.
Tuesday, November 22nd, 2011
It was 17.6F and dropping when I left the house this morning around 6:00 AM, so this will certainly come in as the coldest morning of the season at our location thus far. I flipped on The Weather Channel before I left the house, and was surprised to see that the local forecast called for 6 to 10 inches at the Winter Weather Advisory level, but after reading the BTV forecast discussion, they spoke of the potential for mixing keeping totals down. The current point and click for our area down in the valley calls for 4 to 9 inches of snow, but doesn’t mention any mixing at this point.
Today: Sunny, with a high near 34. Calm wind.
Tonight: Snow, mainly after 1am. Low around 24. South wind at 6 mph becoming north. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New snow accumulation of 1 to 2 inches possible.
Wednesday: Snow, mainly before 4pm. High near 35. North wind between 3 and 8 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 3 to 7 inches possible.
Wednesday Night: A chance of snow showers, mainly before 7pm. Partly cloudy, with a low around 20. North wind around 6 mph becoming calm. Chance of precipitation is 30%.
I didn’t really see much of a bump in the point forecasts for the local mountains, so we’ll have to see if that gets refined for the higher elevations. I see that mreaves added the projected accumulations from BTV so I’ve added the latest weather advisories map below:
Looks like BTV has decided to bump it up some.
I see, thanks for the update. It’s pretty similar to the last round in our area along the Chittenden/Washington County line, but they’ve definitely filled out the rest of the area with higher numbers. Some Vermont areas have been upgraded to Winter Storm Warnings as well, and I’ve added the updated advisories map below:
Tuesday, November 22nd, 2011 – Afternoon Update
The National Weather Service Office in Burlington has put out their afternoon update for snow accumulations, and our area has been upgraded to a Winter Storm Warning to reflect the potential snowfall. The latest advisory and projected accumulations maps have been added below:
Tuesday, November 22nd, 2011 – Evening Update
This evening, Matt Noyes posted his latest snowfall prediction map for this storm, and he’s pretty bullish on some of the totals in Northern New England, including parts of Northern Vermont. I’ve added his map below:
As of ~11:05 PM snow has started up here in Waterbury at 495’; T=32.0F. We’ll see where things are tomorrow at observation time.
Wednesday, November 23rd, 2011
Event totals: 7.1” Snow/0.76” L.E.
Snow started up around 11:05 P.M. last night as I noted; it started to accumulate right at that point with a temperature of 32 F, but it took some time to ramp up in intensity. The last time I checked outside in the evening was probably around 11:45 P.M., and the accumulation on the board was still less than half an inch, but snowfall intensity was at least moderate. With 7.1 inches on the board this morning at the 6:00 A.M. observation time, the snowfall rate comes in at a bit over an inch an hour for the overnight period. There was a good amount of liquid in the 7.1-inch snow core; at ~¾ of an inch of liquid, it's on the higher end of what I usually get with the 6 to 12 hour intervals. The snow is a bit dense/wet, as indicated by the roughly 9 to 1 ratio.
Some details from the 6:00 A.M. observations are below:
New Snow: 7.1 inches
New Liquid: 0.76 inches
Snow/Water Ratio: 9.3
Snow Density: 10.7% H2O
Temperature: 32.0 F
Sky: Snow (2-8 mm flakes)
Snow at the stake: 7.0 inches
I just went out and made a 7:00 A.M. check on the snowboard to see how the past hour went – there’s 0.9” new on the board. That’s still close to 1”/hr, but I wouldn’t call the snowfall intensity more than moderate right now.
at 6:30am up at the ski resort base (1,550ft)... just dumping 1"/hr or
even a bit better now.
Perfect early dawn feel of a snowstorm on a ski morning... beeping wails of the snowcats as they back up is the only sound amid the falling flakes.
That’s great to hear PF, glad the mountain is getting in on the goods as well! It’s too bad you guys are opening though, with just the couple of trails this new snow won’t last more than a few minutes – especially with the capacity of the new quad. I’m assuming nothing has been made over at Spruce yet? This new snow would go great with a base. What a great day for the opening ceremony on the new quad though!
I’m at home and it’s still snowing, so I’ll try to continue with some hourly snowfall observations at time permits. With 1.8” on the board at the 8:00 A.M. reading, the snowfall has stayed at 0.9”/hr as it was the previous hour. It doesn’t seem like it’s snowing that hard based on visibility or local observation, but it’s still pretty early in the season so it may take a bit of time to get back into the swing of things.
Time | Total snow on snowboard
6:00 A.M. | 0.0”
7:00 A.M. | 0.9”
8:00 A.M. | 1.8”
need some backyard pics
I’ve added a few pictures from this morning below. Current event total at this location is 10.7” from an 11:00 A.M. reading, but it’s still snowing lightly out there. I’ll take the next core at noon and see where things are at that point.
Event totals: 10.7” Snow/1.16” L.E.
Snow has gradually been slowing down through the morning, and the air temperature has also been warming. There’s been another tenth of an inch on the board since noon, but it’s getting pretty slushy and I may be getting the next round of liquid equivalent from the rain gauge because the snow melts as it falls. Even at the noontime reading the accumulation of snow on the snowboard had settled back a few tenths from the 11:00 A.M. reading.
Hourly observations from this morning:
Time | Total snow on snowboard
06:00 A.M. | 0.0”
07:00 A.M. | 0.9”
08:00 A.M. | 1.8”
09:00 A.M. | 2.6”
10:00 A.M. | 3.2”
11:00 A.M. | 3.6”
12:00 P.M. | 3.3”
Some details from the 12:00 P.M. observations are below:
New Snow: 3.6 inches
New Liquid: 0.40 inches
Snow/Water Ratio: 9.0
Snow Density: 11.1% H2O
Temperature: 35.8 F
Sky: Light Snow/Flurries
Snow at the stake: 9.5 inches
Event totals: 10.9” Snow/1.19” L.E.
It snowed basically all day and into the evening at the house, but we only accumulated another couple of slushy tenths of an inch today with temperatures a bit above freezing. I used the rain gauge for the liquid equivalent, which came out at 0.03” since the noontime report. Later in the afternoon I headed up to Bolton to check out the snow and see if it was worth making turns, and boy was there a difference in snowfall just a few miles west of here as Powderfreak had said. At the base of the Bolton Valley Access Road (340’), there were just a couple inches of snow, and even up at 1,000’ it only looked like roughly 4 inches. It increased pretty quickly above that though, and here is the elevation vs. settled snow profile:
Indeed the skiing was actually quite good on the mountain – I was worried about the lack of base, but it was hardly a concern because the snow was reasonably dense and kept you well off the bottom. We had about 1.2 inches of liquid equivalent down here at the house, and there was certainly more than that up on the main mountain. I’ve added a few additional images below, and the full text and pictures can be found in my Bolton Valley trip report from today.
Some details from the 6:00 P.M. observations are below:
New Snow: 0.2 inches
New Liquid: 0.03 inches
Snow/Water Ratio: 6.7
Snow Density: 15.0% H2O
Temperature: 32.7 F
Sky: Light Snow
Snow at the stake: 9.0 inches
We did have more snow shower activity this evening though, with another tenth of an inch that fell and accumulated easily with the falling temperatures. I’ll add that into tomorrow’s total, but it brings this event right to 11.0 inches at this location.
This was a sweet event in my book; we haven't had a good, old warning-criteria synoptic snowstorm in November in a while. We've had upslope events but this has some nice heft to it.
On that note PF, I’ve wanted to comment on our November snowfall. Since it has been so feast or famine over the past few seasons (incredibly so - see the plot of my data below) this is the first time I’ve seen an “average” November in terms of snowfall at my location. The deviation is huge in my small sample set of course, but going with what I’ve got for data perhaps we’re getting there on an average. It doesn’t look like there’s going to be anything too big in terms of snowfall for the rest of the month, with the next mention of snow in our point and click being snow showers on Tuesday night (Nov 29), so this may be about where we end up. I’ve posted the November snowfall chart before, but I figured I’d add it here since in this month of warm temperatures and crazy weather swings, it’s sort of ironic that it’s coming in as the most “middle of the road” in terms of snowfall here.
Thursday, November 24th, 2011
Event totals: 11.0” Snow/1.19” L.E.
Based on the forecast, this should be the last round of observations for this event. Currently the yard snowpack is at 8 inches, and although this is well within one S.D. for the data I have on the start of continuous snowpack at this location (Nov 28 ± 9 d), after today there are four days with forecast highs in the upper 40s and even lower 50s with some showers before it cools back down, so this is probably not quite the start just yet.
Some details from the 6:00 A.M. observations are below:
New Snow: 0.1 inches
New Liquid: Trace
Temperature: 29.5 F
Snow at the stake: 8.0 inches
Ahh thanks for verifying Bolton's total for me, J.Spin.... haha, their snow report only said 5-7" as of noon and I just couldn't imagine that being right given that you had over 10" at your house and we had 8-9" up here at that point. It looks like they did end up getting that 10-12" I would've thought they got.
Glad to help PF – sometimes I’m just as happy to get out there and check on the snow depths in the higher elevations and enjoy the tour, even if I’m not expecting the descent to be fantastic. That’s the advantage of being just a few minutes from the mountain, even if it’s a mess up there, there’s not much loss in terms of time, gas, etc. Yesterday’s tour was definitely one of those where I didn’t anticipate anything great since there was no base, but it turned out to be fine since the snow was reasonably dense and well over an inch of liquid equivalent was put down. I was surprised with the way the wind had affected the deposition of the snow up there, since it didn’t seem like an especially windy event. To ensure my snow depth numbers are accurate, I’ve got that calibrated measurement ski pole that I use, which essentially allows me unlimited sampling during the tour (especially during the ascent), but things were more variable than usual yesterday. I always keep an average going in my head from the samplings, but it’s never quite as fun as down at the house where the snow falls so evenly most of the time.
Well, I guess the snow isn’t done quite yet. Light snow broke out about 10 minutes ago and is currently falling. It’s not really showing up on even the composite radar…
but perhaps it’s “under” the radar so to speak based on what BTV has in their discussion:
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/... AS OF 1009 AM EST THURSDAY...STRATUS DECK WILL LIKELY HOLD FIRM TODAY GIVEN STRONG INVERSION 950-850MB LAYER PER 12Z ALB SOUNDING AND AVAILABLE RUC FCST SOUNDINGS. THIS WILL LIKELY ALSO HOLD TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BELOW MOS VALUES. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BECOME S-SW 5-10 MPH...MAINLY WEST OF THE GREEN MTNS...WITH WINDS MORE LIGHT/VARIABLE EAST OF THE GREENS. COULD BE A BRIEF FLURRY OR TWO...BUT SHALLOW NATURE OF CLOUD DECK AND BUILDING HEIGHTS ALOFT WILL GENERALLY PRECLUDE ANY PCPN TODAY OR TONIGHT.
It does have the feel of the snow that sprinkles down from low elevation, even like the diamond dust we get during those cold spells, but the flakes are a bit bigger than that. Anyway, certainly feeling like winter around here with the constant snowfall.
Friday, November 25th, 2011
posted this in the storm obs thread but figured I'd post it for reference here,
What a severe downsloping episode for the western slopes and eastern side of the Champlain Valley. SE sfc to 850mb wind flow will do that. Across the lake at the same elevations had 8-10" while the VT side of the Lake and western slopes saw 1-4".
Thanks for the putting up the final map PF – I had grabbed the text portion of the totals, so I put that below for archiving. It looks like the highest New York total on there is 14” at Whiteface and for Vermont it was 12.1” at those two Waitsfield sites. We were in South Burlington for the holiday yesterday, and drove through the Richmond I-89 Exit 11 area – that was probably the lowest general area we saw in terms of accumulations. There really were just a couple inches around, so grass was still sticking out of the snow on mowed areas. Indeed the snow accumulations increased as one headed toward the Burlington area and my parent’s place on Spear Street had about 3 to 4 inches on the lawn. These snow accumulations holes on the west side of the Greens on the map are really quite striking though!
Here at the house today we were generally below that undercast akin to what Dendrite mentioned, so I’m not sure if it even got out of the 30s F (highest I saw was around 38 F). Snow depth in the yard was at 8 inches yesterday morning and 7 inches this morning, although I bet it’s almost consolidating more from the warmth below than above.
NOUS41 KBTV 241534
PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1034 AM EST THU NOV 24 2011
THE FOLLOWING ARE UNOFFICIAL OBSERVATIONS TAKEN DURING THE PAST 48
HOURS FOR THE STORM THAT AFFECTED OUR REGION. APPRECIATION IS
EXTENDED TO HIGHWAY DEPARTMENTS...COOPERATIVE AND COCORAHS
OBSERVERS...SKYWARN SPOTTERS AND MEDIA FOR THESE REPORTS. THIS
SUMMARY IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON OUR HOME PAGE AT WEATHER.GOV/BURLINGTON
********************STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL********************
LOCATION STORM TOTAL TIME/DATE COMMENTS
4 ESE PERU 10.4 600 AM 11/24 COCORAHS
PLATTSBURGH 8.5 719 AM 11/23 BROADCAST MEDIA
DANNEMORA 8.0 746 AM 11/23 BROADCAST MEDIA
WHITEFACE MOUNTAIN 14.0 1151 AM 11/23 NYDEC
WILMINGTON 12.0 821 AM 11/23 BROADCAST MEDIA
NEWCOMB 10.0 306 PM 11/23 PUBLIC
2 N LAKE PLACID 9.0 815 AM 11/24 COCORAHS
MORIAH 9.0 739 AM 11/23 PUBLIC
TICONDEROGA 9.0 838 AM 11/23 TRAINED SPOTTER
2 E TUPPER LAKE 8.0 736 AM 11/24 CO-OP OBSERVER
1 SW MALONE 5.5 700 AM 11/24 CO-OP OBSERVER
...ST. LAWRENCE COUNTY...
3 WNW GOUVERNEUR 2.5 948 AM 11/24 CO-OP OBSERVER
1 WNW ORWELL 8.5 1022 AM 11/23 COCORAHS
3 ENE VERGENNES 8.5 147 PM 11/23 TRAINED SPOTTER
ORWELL 8.0 653 AM 11/23 PUBLIC
BRIDPORT 8.0 145 PM 11/23 TRAINED SPOTTER
MONKTON 6.8 719 AM 11/23 TRAINED SPOTTER
ADDISON 5.5 517 AM 11/23 SPOTTER
SOUTH LINCOLN 4.9 700 AM 11/24 CO-OP OBSERVER
EAST MIDDLEBURY 2.0 919 AM 11/23 PUBLIC
4 N WALDEN 10.8 700 AM 11/24 CO-OP OBSERVER
1 WNW WEST DANVILLE 10.0 347 PM 11/23 TRAINED SPOTTER
3 NNW SHEFFIELD 9.7 800 AM 11/24 COCORAHS
SE SHEFFIELD 9.5 800 AM 11/24 COCORAHS
1 S HARDWICK 9.5 1145 AM 11/23 TRAINED SPOTTER
LYNDONVILLE 9.0 1240 AM 11/24 PUBLIC
2 NE SUTTON 7.1 700 AM 11/24 CO-OP OBSERVER
HARDWICK 6.6 612 AM 11/23 SPOTTER
3 NE CHARLOTTE 6.3 1023 AM 11/23 COCORAHS
2 NW WESTFORD 4.6 630 AM 11/23 NWS EMPLOYEE
1 NE SOUTH BURLINGTO 4.4 900 AM 11/23 NWS OFFICE
2 SE SOUTH BURLINGTO 4.3 645 AM 11/23 NWS EMPLOYEE
1 N MALLETTS BAY 4.2 720 AM 11/23 NWS EMPLOYEE
4 NNE UNDERHILL 2.9 700 AM 11/24 COCORAHS
3 SSE RICHMOND 2.5 700 AM 11/24 COCORAHS
1 E NASHVILLE 1.6 645 AM 11/24 NWS EMPLOYEE
ESSEX CENTER 1.5 812 AM 11/23 NWS EMPLOYEE
1 NNW JERICHO 1.2 700 AM 11/24 COCORAHS
GILMAN 8.3 500 AM 11/24 CO-OP OBSERVER
AVERILL 6.5 720 AM 11/24 CO-OP OBSERVER
SWANTON 6.1 307 PM 11/23 TRAINED SPOTTER
8 NNW FAIRFAX 5.0 751 AM 11/24 COCORAHS
...GRAND ISLE COUNTY...
5 SSE ALBURGH 3.5 1007 AM 11/24 COCORAHS
MORRISVILLE 10.1 500 PM 11/23 PUBLIC
2 S EDEN 10.0 921 AM 11/24 CO-OP OBSERVER
3 NE HYDE PARK 8.2 800 AM 11/24 COCORAHS
1 S MOSCOW 8.0 1004 AM 11/23 TRAINED SPOTTER
MOUNT MANSFIELD 8.0 400 PM 11/23 CO-OP OBSERVER
5 N JEFFERSONVILLE 7.9 730 AM 11/24 CO-OP OBSERVER
1 S WOLCOTT 7.0 754 AM 11/23 BROADCAST MEDIA
JOHNSON 6.0 445 PM 11/23 PUBLIC
SMUGGLERS NOTCH 6.0 621 AM 11/23 STOWE MOUNTAIN RESORT
2 SW SOUTH VERSHIRE 10.5 104 PM 11/23 TRAINED SPOTTER
CORINTH 10.0 700 AM 11/24 CO-OP OBSERVER
2 NW CHELSEA 9.5 700 AM 11/24 CO-OP OBSERVER
TOPSHAM 9.0 753 AM 11/23 BROADCAST MEDIA
STRAFFORD 7.0 814 AM 11/23 TRAINED SPOTTER
2 NNW GREENSBORO 8.6 700 AM 11/24 COCORAHS
1 WNW WESTFIELD 6.5 800 AM 11/24 COCORAHS
JAY PEAK 5.0 700 AM 11/24 CO-OP OBSERVER
2 NW DERBY CENTER 4.8 700 AM 11/24 COCORAHS
NEWPORT 4.1 700 AM 11/24 CO-OP OBSERVER
7 SE MORGAN 3.9 1025 AM 11/23 COCORAHS
KILLINGTON 12.0 1238 PM 11/23 PUBLIC
1 N RUTLAND 2.9 700 AM 11/24 CO-OP OBSERVER
PAWLET 1.5 441 AM 11/23 SNOW SLEET MIX
2 SE WAITSFIELD 12.1 700 AM 11/24 COCORAHS
2 W WAITSFIELD 12.1 700 AM 11/24 CO-OP OBSERVER
3 NW WATERBURY 11.0 600 AM 11/24 COCORAHS
2 S SOUTH DUXBURY 11.0 958 AM 11/24 PUBLIC
WARREN 10.5 105 PM 11/23 PUBLIC
3 NE WATERBURY 10.5 615 AM 11/24 COCORAHS
4 ENE CABOT 10.0 900 AM 11/24 COCORAHS
2 W WORCESTER 9.8 700 AM 11/24 CO-OP OBSERVER
EAST CALAIS 9.5 449 PM 11/23 TRAINED SPOTTER
MIDDLESEX 9.0 1033 AM 11/23 PUBLIC
WATERBURY 9.0 447 PM 11/23 TRAINED SPOTTER
2 SW MONTPELIER 9.0 700 AM 11/24 CO-OP OBSERVER
2 NNE WATERBURY CENT 8.5 937 AM 11/23 TRAINED SPOTTER
2 NE MORETOWN 8.5 1230 PM 11/23 PUBLIC
EAST BARRE 8.3 920 AM 11/23 BROADCAST MEDIA
5 NNE WATERBURY 8.1 1026 AM 11/23 COCORAHS
BERLIN 8.0 754 AM 11/23 BROADCAST MEDIA
4 ESE MARSHFIELD 8.0 745 AM 11/23 TRAINED SPOTTER
5 SW MARSHFIELD 7.5 545 AM 11/24 COCORAHS
2 N NORTHFIELD 7.5 1027 AM 11/23 COCORAHS
4 WNW BERLIN 6.5 1027 AM 11/23 COCORAHS
1 SSW NORTHFIELD FAL 6.0 700 AM 11/24 CO-OP OBSERVER
WATERBURY CENTER 5.5 559 AM 11/23 PUBLIC
WORCESTER 5.0 538 AM 11/23 COOP OBSERVER
MONTPELIER 4.0 537 AM 11/23 PUBLIC
3 S LUDLOW 12.0 1008 AM 11/24 COCORAHS
WOODSTOCK 11.5 800 AM 11/24 CO-OP OBSERVER
3 N POMFRET 10.6 700 AM 11/24 COCORAHS
4 N BETHEL 10.1 700 AM 11/24 CO-OP OBSERVER
1 S ROCHESTER 10.0 700 AM 11/24 CO-OP OBSERVER
CAVENDISH 8.6 700 AM 11/24 CO-OP OBSERVER
1 W BETHEL 8.5 622 AM 11/23 PUBLIC
SPRINGFIELD 5.0 431 AM 11/23 STATE HIGHWAY DEPT.
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