Wednesday, February 23rd, 2011

 

 

Here are a few forecast tidbits from this morning:  The first forecast I heard for the area this morning was from Bob Minsenberger on The Point, and he was thinking a 3 to 6-inch snowfall event for the end of this week.  Next up was Eye on the Sky on VPR, and in their short early report they didn’t throw out any numbers that I heard, but mentioned the storm.  Roger Hill came on WDEV at 6:15 A.M. for his first broadcast; I didn’t hear any projected accumulations from Roger at that point, but he picked a line across Middlebury-Barre/Montpelier-Bradford to indicate a zone for mixed precipitation.  North of that line he was expecting the precipitation to be mostly snow with the potential for a little mix, but he spoke of more mixed precipitation for southern Vermont.  Roger was expecting the Friday morning commute to be a bit of a driving hassle with wet snow, and suggested that everyone will need to be on their best driving behavior.  As Powderfreak posted in the other thread, the thoughts from the BTV discussion seem similar at this point:  SNOWFALL AMTS COULD TOTAL 4-7" ACROSS CENTRAL/S-CENTRAL VT DURING FRIDAY...PERHAPS AS FAR NORTH AS BTV...BUT STILL A BIT SOON TO PIN DOWN AMTS.  In Roger Hill’s 7:15 A.M. report he did thrown out some snowfall estimates, he said something in the 3 to 6 or 4 to 8 range, very much in line with the thoughts from other local meteorologists.  He mentioned Rutland as another north/south mixing breakpoint.  Beyond that Roger said light accumulations for the Sunday event, and then for Monday he used his “Hook Panhandle Low” terminology, with the potential of snow changing to rain in that system.  

 
 
I just noticed that BTV has a Winter Storm Watch up:

 

http://jandeproductions.com/2011/23FEB11A.jpg
 
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
353 PM EST WED FEB 23 2011
 
NYZ026>031-034-035-087-VTZ001>012-016>019-241000-
/O.NEW.KBTV.WS.A.0005.110225T1200Z-110226T0500Z/
NORTHERN ST. LAWRENCE-NORTHERN FRANKLIN-EASTERN CLINTON-
SOUTHEASTERN ST. LAWRENCE-SOUTHERN FRANKLIN-WESTERN CLINTON-
WESTERN ESSEX-EASTERN ESSEX-SOUTHWESTERN ST. LAWRENCE-GRAND ISLE-
WESTERN FRANKLIN-ORLEANS-ESSEX-WESTERN CHITTENDEN-LAMOILLE-
CALEDONIA-WASHINGTON-WESTERN ADDISON-ORANGE-WESTERN RUTLAND-
WINDSOR-EASTERN FRANKLIN-EASTERN CHITTENDEN-EASTERN ADDISON-
EASTERN RUTLAND-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MASSENA...MALONE...PLATTSBURGH...
STAR LAKE...SARANAC LAKE...TUPPER LAKE...DANNEMORA...
LAKE PLACID...PORT HENRY...TICONDEROGA...OGDENSBURG...POTSDAM...
GOUVERNEUR...ALBURGH...SOUTH HERO...ST. ALBANS...NEWPORT...
ISLAND POND...BURLINGTON...JOHNSON...STOWE...ST. JOHNSBURY...
MONTPELIER...MIDDLEBURY...VERGENNES...BRADFORD...RANDOLPH...
RUTLAND...SPRINGFIELD...WHITE RIVER JUNCTION...ENOSBURG FALLS...
RICHFORD...UNDERHILL...BRISTOL...RIPTON...EAST WALLINGFORD...
KILLINGTON
353 PM EST WED FEB 23 2011
 
...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH
FRIDAY EVENING...
 
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BURLINGTON HAS ISSUED A WINTER
STORM WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH
FRIDAY EVENING.
 
* LOCATIONS...NORTHERN NEW YORK AND VERMONT.
 
* HAZARD TYPES...MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW.
 
* ACCUMULATIONS...6 TO 10 INCHES OF SNOW POSSIBLE.
 
* TIMING...LIGHT SNOW WILL DEVELOP LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND BECOME
  MODERATE TO HEAVY DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY.
 
* IMPACTS...TRAVEL CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE ON FRIDAY WITH
  GUSTY NORTH WINDS FRIDAY AFTERNOON REDUCING VISIBILITIES AND
  CAUSING SOME BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW.
 
* WINDS...NORTH WINDS AROUND 10 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
 
* TEMPERATURES...HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S ON FRIDAY.
 
* VISIBILITIES...UNDER A MILE FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING.
 
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
 
A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL.
 
PLEASE STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...YOUR LOCAL MEDIA...OR
GO TO WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BURLINGTON FOR FURTHER UPDATES ON THIS
WEATHER SITUATION.
 
$$
 
EVENSON
 
 
Thursday, February 24th, 2011
 
 

Winter Storm Warnings are up from BTV for a general 6 to 12 inches of snow in the area.  In the morning forecasts, I can’t quite recall what Bob Minsenberger was going with (I think it was roughly 6 to 12 inches), but Roger Hill was going with a general 5 to 9 inch total with the possibility of greater than a foot in some of the higher elevations.  Roger suggested a mixing line up to roughly the Barre/Montpelier area.  The totals I heard from Mark Breen/Eye on the Sky were 7 to 14 inches outside of southern NH/VT (2 to 5 inches) and the Champlain Valley (4 to 8 inches).  Our point forecast in the Winooski Valley is 7 to 11 inches, and around 10 inches on the BTV Storm Total Snow Forecast graphic.  

 

It doesn’t look like it’s a monster storm, but it sounds like there will be a good shot of liquid equivalent for resurfacing the slopes this weekend.  I’ve added some of BTV’s graphics below.  

 
http://jandeproductions.com/2011/24FEB11A.jpg
 
http://jandeproductions.com/2011/24FEB11B.jpg
 
http://jandeproductions.com/2011/24FEB11C.jpg
 
http://jandeproductions.com/2011/24FEB11D.jpg
 
 
 

I checked in on the afternoon update from BTV, and since it showed up as a pink blob, the first thing I noticed on the Storm Total Snow Forecast map was a slight tweaking of projected snowfall amounts in western Washington County into eastern Chittenden and Addison Counties.  Coincident with that, the point and click for our area of the Winooski Valley has been bumped slightly to 8-12 inches.  Comparing the two maps, I guess that totals in general for Vermont on the map were tweaked up an inch or two.  I couldn’t find anything in the discussion about the change, but perhaps it is minor enough that it didn’t warrant any comments.  I see that Powderfreak has already posted the updated map, but I added the two maps below for direct comparison:  

 
http://jandeproductions.com/2011/24FEB11B.jpg
 
http://jandeproductions.com/2011/24FEB11E.jpg
 
 
Friday, February 25th, 2011
 

mreaves, on 25 February 2011 - 06:52 AM, said:

BTV cut down our total overnight

 

Listening to Roger Hill this morning, he said that things shifted a bit south, so he seems to be on the same track as the NWS.  The new map is more like the first map with regard to the north central part of the state, but now with the pink down toward the southern part of the state and totals tapering off a bit in the far north.  I’ve added all three maps below for a comparison on the forecast progression; it’s pretty neat to see how things fluctuate as the forecasters fine tune the details:  

 
http://jandeproductions.com/2011/24FEB11B.jpg
 
http://jandeproductions.com/2011/24FEB11E.jpg
 
http://jandeproductions.com/2011/25FEB11A.jpg
 
 

I noticed some first flakes here in Burlington at around 7:55 A.M., and it was just flurries for a while, but the snow is coming down steadily now and all surfaces have a new coating of probably ¼ inch.  

 
 

Event totals: 6.3” Snow/0.32” L.E.

 

Friday 2/25/2011 12:00 P.M. update:  Burlington had accumulated about 4 inches or so when I left sometime after 11:00 A.M., and here at the house I found 6.3 inches at noontime.  It wasn’t even snowing when I left the house this morning around 6:45 A.M., so the snow has been coming down at over an inch an hour on average.  The snow to liquid ratio certainly isn’t low here, coming in at almost 20 to 1 for this round of accumulation.  The flakes are very big, some up to 20 mm in diameter, so that is obviously helping with the ratios.  The snow seems to be continuing at a steady pace of about an inch per hour.

 

Some details from the 12:00 P.M. observations are below:

 

New Snow: 6.3 inches

New Liquid: 0.32 inches

Snow/Water Ratio: 19.7

Snow Density: 5.1% H2O

Temperature: 31.5 F

Sky: Snow (5-20 mm flakes)

Snow at the stake: 25.5 inches

 
 

Event totals: 9.6” Snow/0.51” L.E.

 

Friday 2/25/2011 6:00 P.M. update:  E and the boys are off this week, so we headed up to Bolton this afternoon once the powder built up to do a bit of storm day skiing.  When we first arrived at around 1:00 P.M. the snowfall was moderate and the flakes were fairly small, but flake size and snowfall intensity picked up through the afternoon.  I did a few depth checks around the mountain, finding generally 10-13 inches of new powder in the 1,500’ – 2,500’ range, and when the mountain made their evening update, they were reporting a 12-inch storm total at that point.  We’ve picked up a bit of additional snow this evening so the mountain will probably end up with a little over a foot in the end.  It wasn’t an outrageously deep storm by any means, but the snow was reasonably blower, coming in at around 5 to 6% H2O based on my analyses down in the valley.  Unfortunately, the snow was dry enough that it meant the skiing wasn’t completely bottomless; but as the day went on it was getting pretty close even on the steepest terrain if one had untracked snow.  I added a couple shots from the day below:

 

http://jandeproductions.com/2011/25FEB11C.jpg

 

http://jandeproductions.com/2011/25FEB11D.jpg

 

http://jandeproductions.com/2011/25FEB11E.jpg

 

Down at the house we picked up 3.3 additional inches of snow in the 12:00 P.M. to 6:00 P.M. timeframe.  The density was up just a touch from what fell this morning, but it was still quite light.  We’ve had an additional 0.9 inches this evening, so with that it looks like we’ll end up between 10 and 11 inches for a storm total here.  That’s really quite close in terms of what BTV was forecasting.  Another update has been made to the Storm Total Snow Forecast map, which bumped totals back up a bit in the north.  I’ve added it below:

 

http://jandeproductions.com/2011/25FEB11B.jpg

 

Some details from the 6:00 P.M. observations are below:

 

New Snow: 3.3 inches

New Liquid: 0.19 inches

Snow/Water Ratio: 17.4

Snow Density: 5.8% H2O

Temperature: 25.5 F

Sky: Snow (1-4 mm flakes)

Snow at the stake: 28.0 inches

 

 

Saturday, February 26th, 2011

 

 

Event totals: 10.5” Snow/0.54” L.E.

 

Saturday 2/26/2011 6:00 A.M. update:  Our snowfall was complete by midnight last night, so the 0.9 additional inches we picked up will mark the last accumulation for this event, and I’ve added those observations below.  Up above us, Bolton came in with a storm total of 16”, and I’ve added 24-hour/storm totals below for some of the Vermont ski areas that have reported in so far; the list is north to south:

 

Jay Peak: 9”

Burke: 12”

Smuggler’s Notch: 10”

Stowe: 13”

Bolton Valley: 16”

Mad River Glen: 9”

Sugarbush: 10”

Pico: 14”

Killington: 14”

Magic Mountain: 14”

Stratton: 15”

Mount Snow: 14”

 

Totals were a bit up and down north to south, although it looks like there was a pretty steady 14-15” of accumulation in the southern half of the state.  The Bolton/Stowe area seemed to have similar totals, presumably with less liquid equivalent and higher snow to water ratios.

 

Some details from the 12:00 A.M. Waterbury observations are below:

 

New Snow: 0.9 inches

New Liquid: 0.03 inches

Snow/Water Ratio: 30.0

Snow Density: 3.3% H2O

Temperature: 23.7 F

Sky: Flurries

Snow at the stake: 28.5 inches