February 21st, 2011 – Waterbury Winter Weather Event Updates

 

 

 

Sunday, February 19th, 2012

 

 

View Postpowderfreak, on 19 February 2012 - 05:55 PM, said:

Bomb... big, big snows CNE/NNE and maybe the Berkshires. This would redeem this winter a bit and maybe shows the GFS's idea of a storm developing further south along the front is right. As opposed to a St Lawrence River Valley cutter.

 

I took a look at the 12Z ECMWF output when I got in this afternoon, and wasn’t too surprised when I saw that this thread had picked up a bit.  That 12Z run basically has three potential systems coming through starting on Wednesday, with that third one really showing some big snow potential.  It was quite a change from what the 00z run showed, so I guess we’ll have to see if this is a real trend/change.  BTV talks about the three systems in their long term discussion from this afternoon, focusing on the warmth with the first one:

 

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

AS OF 340 PM EST SUNDAY...EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST WILL

BE ACTIVE BUT MILD. PERIOD BEGINS WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM

NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES ON WEDNESDAY MORNING...SLOWLY LIFTING

NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH CANADA. OUR REGION WILL SEE SOME RAIN

SHOWER ACTIVITY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ZONES.

TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE INFLUENCED BY WARM AIR

ADVECTION AND REACH THE MID TO UPPER 40S. ANOTHER WEAKER LOW WILL

CROSS OUR FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT...RAIN SHOWERS WILL

CHANGE OVER TO SNOW SHOWERS WITH THIS FEATURE AS TEMPERATURES

DROP INTO THE 20S. PROGRESSIVE UPPER LEVEL WEST SOUTHWESTERLY

FLOW REMAINS OVER THE REGION. ANOTHER STRONGER LOW PRESSURE

SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES THURSDAY NIGHT

INTO FRIDAY. GFS AND ECMWF START TO DIVERGE AT THIS POINT WITH

ECMWF HAVING A SLOWER SOLUTION. THEREFORE...HAVE CHANCE FOR RAIN

AND SNOW SHOWERS MENTIONED FROM ABOUT THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

FROM USING A BLEND OF THESE TWO MODELS. BY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO

SUNDAY A RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA.

 

 

Tuesday, February 21st, 2012

 

 

There hasn’t been much going on here tonight in terms of precipitation, but we’ve got some flakes coming down now.

 

 

View Postpowderfreak, on 21 February 2012 - 11:55 PM, said:

Half inch of new snow so far... snowing steadily and its nice to see. Just drove home on snow covered roads... been a while for that, too, haha.

Another band looks to be developing and moving through... hopefully we can top 1.0".

J.Spin's area on I-89 near the county line looks to be in the thick of it for the past half hour to an hour.

 

Yep, we’re definitely getting into it as those 30 db echoes come through; I wouldn’t be surprised if it’s inch an hour snowfall out there – I’ll do an analysis before I head off to bed.

 

 

Event totals: 1.3” Snow/0.05” L.E.

 

View Postpowderfreak, on 21 February 2012 - 11:55 PM, said:

Another band looks to be developing and moving through... hopefully we can top 1.0".

 

I’m going to go out on a limb and say that’s possible.  It didn’t start accumulating here until ~10:20 P.M., and as of 11:00 P.M. there was 1.3” on the snowboard, so that comes out to just shy of 2”/hr snowfall.  That push of 30 db echoes crashing into the spine was pretty cool on the radar:

 

http://jandeproductions.com/2012/21FEB12A.gif

 

The snowfall has certainly slowed down from that blitz at this point, but there’s an additional 0.4” on the board as of ~11:30 P.M., so this event has provided at least 1.5” in this area.  It’s interesting to note that the liquid equivalent was exactly the same here as Dendrite reported, with presumably a bit of extra loft from big flakes.  I’ll do the next analysis with my morning observations.

 

Some details from the 11:00 P.M. Waterbury observations are below:

 

New Snow: 1.3 inches

New Liquid: 0.05 inches

Snow/Water Ratio: 26.0

Snow Density: 3.8% H2O

Temperature: 31.3 F

Sky: Snow (2-15 mm flakes)

Snow at the stake: 8.5 inches

 

 

Wednesday, February 22nd, 2012

 

 

Event totals: 1.7” Snow/0.06” L.E.

 

There’s no additional snow accumulation to report beyond what I observed last night, but with the temperature climbing above freezing down here in the bottom of the Winooski Valley, this was definitely a snowfall to catch as it happened.  The new snow has already consolidated back to down to probably ˝” or so at this elevation.  Roger Hill commented in his morning broadcast on how this event didn’t hit Burlington, but even just a few miles to the west of our location there’s nothing on the ground.  I wasn’t paying attention to the exact cutoff point for snow, but Jonesville is bare as viewed from I-89.  Looking at the Bolton Flats Cameras as of 6:30 A.M., I can see that there is accumulation near the town of Bolton, so presumably the cutoff for snow accumulation is somewhere between Bolton and Jonesville:

 

http://jandeproductions.com/2012/22FEB12A.jpg

 

Some details from the 6:00 A.M. Waterbury observations are below:

 

New Snow: 0.4 inches

New Liquid: 0.01 inches

Snow/Water Ratio: 40.0

Snow Density: 2.5% H2O

Temperature: 33.4 F

Sky: Cloudy

Snow at the stake: 7.5 inches

 

 

 

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