December 29th, 2012 – Waterbury Winter Weather Event Updates
Friday, December 28th, 2012
with that in the books, you're now on track to for average december at your spot, then?
Absolutely, we could even end up above average. Thanks to this last storm, the snowfall total for the month is 40.7” (from 5.95” of liquid). Since the mean December snowfall here is 41.6”, we should easily be getting there if the forecast is correct (2-5” through tomorrow night). The point and click actually looks reasonably snowy right through the New Year:
Saturday, December 29th, 2012
I just checked our updated point forecast for this morning and the BTV NWS has us under a Winter Weather Advisory with 4 to 8 inches expected through tomorrow; it looks like some of that is due to potential upslope snow.
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 445 AM EST SATURDAY...FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK FOR A MODEST SNOWFALL EVENT ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT WITH SEVERAL LOCATIONS LIKELY REACHING ADVISORY CRITERIA SNOW AMOUNTS.
CURRENT WATER VAPOR AND IR IMAGERY SHOWS A DEEP MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND STRONG VORT OVER THE EAST-CENTRAL CONUS WITH SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES. ALL SHORT TERM MODEL GUIDANCE REMAIN GOOD AGREEMENT TRACKING THIS SHORTWAVE ENERGY ALONG WITH A DEVELOPING CLOSED 700MB LOW INTO THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON...ALONG WITH DEEP LOW/MID LEVEL MOISTURE. IN ADDITION...DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES ALREADY PRODUCING A HEAVY AMOUNT OF CONVECTION OFF THE WESTERN COAST OF FLORIDA THIS MORNING WILL DEEPEN OFF THE GEORGIA COAST AND MOVE NORTHEAST TO NEAR THE 40/70 BENCHMARK BY THIS EVENING. THE COMBINATION OF THESE 2 FEATURES WILL BRING A MODEST LIGHT SNOW EVENT TO THE NORTH COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. LIGHT SNOW DEVELOPS ACROSS THE AREA BY MID-DAY...EXPANDING NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND BECOMING HEAVY AT TIME THIS EVENING. QPF AMOUNTS WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS...ABOUT 0.10-0.15"...AND THINK WE`LL SEE GENERAL SNOW AMOUNTS ACROSS THE REGION IN THE 1-3" RANGE THROUGH 00Z.
COASTAL LOW LOCATED AROUND THE BENCHMARK AT 00Z CONTINUES TO TRACK NORTHEAST TOWARD NOVA SCOTIA TONIGHT CONTINUING TO FEED RICH ATLANTIC MOISTURE INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY. AS THE LOW SHIFTS NORTHEAST MID LEVEL FLOW EVENTUALLY TURNS TO THE NORTHWEST CREATING A SHORT PERIOD OF FAVORABLE OROGRAPHIC BLOCKED/UPSLOPE FLOW ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN VERMONT. FROUDE NUMBER CALCULATIONS CONTINUE TO SHOW BLOCKED FLOW OVERNIGHT THROUGH 12Z WITH LOCAL 4KM WRF MODEL SHOWING FAVORABLE 925-875MB NW FLOW AND TEMPS COOLING TO NEAR -10C. FEEL THERE WILL BE A PERIOD OF UPSLOPE SNOWS OVERNIGHT RESULTING IN ADDITIONAL SNOW AMOUNTS OF 3-5" ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE GREEN MOUNTAINS AND NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS. THUS...ALL PREVIOUS ADVISORIES REMAIN IN PLACE...BUT HAVE HOISTED ADVISORIES FOR EASTERN ADDISON...EASTERN RUTLAND...ORANGE AND WINDSOR COUNTIES MORE MARGINAL CRITERIA AMOUNTS IN THE 3-5" RANGE BY 12Z SUNDAY. ELSEWHERE IN THE REMAINING ADVISORY AREAS.
Looks like precipitation is building in from the southwest and should be getting to Northern Vermont within a few hours:
Thanks for the heads up eyewall, it made me take a look outside and snow has started here in Waterbury as well – probably started around 10:45 A.M. or so.
These NWS guys know where the fun is at...unfortunately the snow growth region sounds to be too high, we are getting that mixture of freezing fog/mist on Mansfield. Riming things up quickly, but can lead to some visibility issues on the higher terrain due to goggle freezing fog/mist. Not affecting snow surfaces though.
Yeah, it looked nice and no issues affecting the skiing – passing along a picture I got of the rime yesterday up in the Bolton Valley Village:
Thanks for the heads up eyewall, it made me take a look outside and snow has started here in Waterbury as well - probably started at 10:45 A.M. or so.
A 1:00 P.M. check on the snowboard revealed 0.9” of snow, so it’s coming down at a little under ½” per hour – flakes are relatively small in the 1-2 mm diameter range.
Headed up this afternoon for some runs - indeed it was interesting having the funky wind direction - I'd say I actually noticed it most in the lack of wind scouring in many spots. I'll send along an update in a bit.
Not surprisingly, the skiing is great right now, so it’s hard keeping up online, but I wanted to pass along a couple of updates and pictures as I’ve been meaning to do. The first is from Thursday, and the second is from Friday, both at Bolton Valley. Full updates can be found by clicking on each day.
Event totals: 2.1” Snow/0.19” L.E.
I only had time between ski sessions to take observations at 5:00 P.M., but I’m passing those along now. Snowfall was pretty consistent through the afternoon, but flakes were small, so the snow on the snowboard was a very synoptic-like 9.0% H2O. Flake size has certainly increased this evening however, so I’d expect the next round of snow to come in drier.
At last check there was another 0.8” of snow on the snowboard, so season snowfall has hit the 50” mark, and is now actually ahead of average. The second half of December has been excellent for snowfall, with over 40” so far here in the valley since the 16th, and still a couple of days to go in the month.
Details from the 5:00 P.M. Waterbury observations:
New Snow: 2.1 inches
New Liquid: 0.19 inches
Snow/Water Ratio: 11.1
Snow Density: 9.0% H2O
Temperature: 23.2 F
Sky: Moderate Snow (1-3 mm flakes)
Snow at the stake: 15.5 inches
Event totals: 3.2” Snow/0.26” L.E.
Flake size had increased a bit this evening, but when I headed out for 11:00 P.M. observations they were generally small and there was also some graupel in there. Even with some graupel the snow density has dropped notably from earlier today, coming in at 6.4% H2O vs. the 9.0% H2O found at the 5:00 P.M. observations. The snowfall rate is still probably light, but substantial enough that there was another tenth of an inch down by the time I headed back inside.
Details from the 11:00 P.M. Waterbury observations:
New Snow: 1.1 inches
New Liquid: 0.07 inches
Snow/Water Ratio: 15.7
Snow Density: 6.4% H2O
Temperature: 21.2 F
Sky: Light Snow/Graupel (1-3 mm flakes)
Snow at the stake: 16.0 inches
Sunday, December 30th, 2012
Event totals: 5.9” Snow/0.33” L.E.
I’d still call the snowfall light in intensity, but flake size is definitely up now and it’s accumulating more easily. Snow density has dropped way down like we typically see from upslope snow.
Details from the 7:00 A.M. Waterbury observations:
New Snow: 2.7 inches
New Liquid: 0.07 inches
Snow/Water Ratio: 38.6
Snow Density: 2.6% H2O
Temperature: 16.2 F
Sky: Light Snow (3-10 mm flakes)
Snow at the stake: 19.0 inches
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
620 AM EST SUN DEC 30 2012
WESTERN FRANKLIN-WESTERN CHITTENDEN-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ST. ALBANS...BURLINGTON
620 AM EST SUN DEC 30 2012
...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BURLINGTON CONTINUES THE WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW...UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON.
* LOCATIONS...WESTERN CHITTENDEN AND WESTERN FRANKLIN COUNTIES OF VERMONT.
* HAZARD TYPES...SNOW.
* ACCUMULATIONS...4 TO 6 INCHES OF SNOW.
* TIMING...PERIODS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THIS MORNING...THEN RAPIDLY TAPER OFF
* IMPACTS...DIFFICULT DRIVING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.
* WINDS...NORTHWEST 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH.
* TEMPERATURES...HIGHS 17 TO 19.
* VISIBILITIES...1 TO 3 MILES.
PLEASE STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...YOUR LOCAL MEDIA...OR
GO TO WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BURLINGTON FOR FURTHER UPDATES ON THIS
Looks like Champlain Valley convergence:
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 632 AM EST SUNDAY...QUICK UPDATE TO THIS MORNINGS FORECAST TO DROP ADVISORIES AND WARNINGS FOR MOST OF THE AREA EXCEPT FOR THE IMMEDIATE VT CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WHERE LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE. NO OTHER CHANGES MADE AT THIS TIME. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
COASTAL LOW PRESSURE WHICH BROUGHT ACCUMULATING SNOW TO THE NORTH COUNTRY YESTERDAY AND OVERNIGHT CONTINUES TO RACE NORTHEAST TOWARDS NOVA SCOTIA THIS MORNING. WHILE MUCH OF THE REGION HAS BEGUN TO SEE SNOW TAPER OFF...NORTHERLY CONVERGENT FLOW IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY HAS RESULTED IN MODERATE LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS WESTERN CHITTENDEN AND ADDISON COUNTIES. THE COMBINATION OF EXCELLENT SNOW GROWTH AND SATURATED LOW LEVELS WILL CONTINUE THESE LAKE EFFECT BANDS ACROSS THE VERMONT SIDE OF THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY THROUGH EARLY MORNING...BUT AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST...ALONG WITH SIGNIFICANT DRYING AT 700MB WE SHOULD SEE SNOW TAPER OFF BY MID- DAY. AS WE FEARED COULD HAPPEN...850MB FLOW HAS REMAINED TOO NORTHERLY AS EVIDENT ON KCXX VAD WIND PROFILE TO PRODUCE UPSLOPE SNOWS ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREENS WITH VERY LITTLE RETURNS NOTED ON RADAR AT THIS TIME. THERE STILL MAY BE A BRIEF WINDOW THIS MORNING WHERE WINDS SHIFT NORTHWESTERLY ENOUGH TO KICK AND INCH OR 2 OF SNOW OUT BEFORE ENDING...SO WE`LL KEEP ADVISORIES AND WARNINGS IN PLACE BUT WILL RE-ASSESS WITH THE NEXT UPDATE AROUND 7 AM.
We're currently getting some spillover here in Waterbury as well, moderate snow with flakes up to ¾” in diameter.
wow this is the heaviest snow I've seen even with the big storm on Thursday. Ridiculous snow growth! We must have an 8" total by now with 20" on the ground.
Yeah, we’ve already picked up another inch here since my report; quite a difference in the way this builds up relative to the flakes from yesterday.
I’ve put together the north to south listing of available 24-hour snowfall totals from the Vermont ski areas; the sweet spot for this event thus far seems to be the Central Vermont Ski Areas, although Smuggler’s Notch appears to have topped the entire list and really stands out as far as the Northern Vermont resort totals go:
Jay Peak: 5”
Smuggler’s Notch: 15”
Bolton Valley: 4”
Mad River Glen: 8”
Suicide Six: 8”
Magic Mountain: 6”
Mount Snow: 6”
We are up to 5" at the ski mountain now. Been snowing pretty steadily today but small flakes.
Smugg's online report shows 15" but their snow phone says 3-4". Interesting.
Yeah, let me know if you find out any news about that – I posted that snapshot from their snow report just in case it disappeared or something.
Event totals: 7.8” Snow/0.35” L.E.
The last round of upslope snow this morning was incredibly dry, and I stacked 3 cores in my analysis to get a good sampling. The snow/water ratio in the report below comes in high because of rounding to two decimal places in the liquid content before Excel does the calculation, so it’s more like 60 to 1, but in any event, it’s very dry. It’s settling so fast that the stake has a lower reading than it did at 7:00 A.M. this morning, before the addition of this latest snow.
Details from the 1:00 P.M. Waterbury observations:
New Snow: 1.9 inches
New Liquid: 0.02 inches
Snow/Water Ratio: 95.0
Snow Density: 1.1% H2O
Temperature: 19.4 F
Sky: Partly Cloudy/Flurries
Snow at the stake: 17.5 inches
Pretty classic blocked flow event... good call with the Froude numbers being so low.
West side of Mansfield looks sweet on the Underhill web cam and folks skiing the Teardrop trail are reporting a foot of fluff. This side of the mountain I've only got 4" at 1,500ft and 6" at 3,000ft. The flakes have been so small...its like pixie dust. This stuff has been battling dry air and downslope the whole time.
Its not often the BTV NWS gets 10-11" while my 3,000ft snow board gets 6". BTV's beaten us in the past 2 events at my 1,500ft and 750ft measuring locations.
I see that BTV updated the storm total snowfall map since the last posting in this thread, so I’ve added it below along with the various numbers. In line with the blocked flow, on the updated map you can really see how the darker blue accumulations are able to sneak through the mountains via the Winooski Valley/I-89/Route 2 corridor – very cool stuff. They must have used this thread to grab that last 1.9” I recorded as of 1:00 P.M., because I haven’t sent that in to CoCoRaHS yet; this is the only place I posted the data. It’s great to see that the data in the thread are being used.
NOUS41 KBTV 301916
PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
214 PM EST SUN DEC 30 2012
THE FOLLOWING ARE UNOFFICIAL OBSERVATIONS TAKEN DURING THE STORM THAT
HAS BEEN AFFECTING OUR REGION. APPRECIATION IS EXTENDED TO HIGHWAY
DEPARTMENTS...COOPERATIVE AND COCORAHS OBSERVERS...SKYWARN SPOTTERS
AND MEDIA FOR THESE REPORTS. THIS SUMMARY IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON OUR
HOME PAGE AT WEATHER.GOV/BURLINGTON
********************STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL********************
LOCATION STORM TOTAL TIME/DATE COMMENTS
4 ESE PERU 5.3 600 AM 12/30 COCORAHS
PLATTSBURGH 3.5 950 PM 12/29 BROADCAST MEDIA
3 SSW TICONDEROGA 8.0 722 AM 12/30 TRAINED SPOTTER
2 N LAKE PLACID 5.0 830 AM 12/30 COCORAHS
1 SW MALONE 5.0 700 AM 12/30 CO-OP OBSERVER
...ST. LAWRENCE COUNTY...
2 SW OGDENSBURG 4.7 700 AM 12/30 COCORAHS
OGDENSBURG 4.5 404 PM 12/29 TRAINED SPOTTER
3 NW GOUVERNEUR 3.0 700 AM 12/30 CO-OP OBSERVER
RIPTON 15.0 1047 AM 12/30 TRAINED SPOTTER
STARKSBORO 7.0 824 AM 12/30 PUBLIC
SALISBURY 6.9 1200 PM 12/30 PUBLIC
ORWELL 6.5 342 PM 12/29 TRAINED SPOTTER
1 NE NEW HAVEN MILLS 6.0 945 AM 12/30 TRAINED SPOTTER
1 NE VERGENNES 4.0 800 AM 12/30 CO-OP OBSERVER
SOUTH LINCOLN 3.8 700 AM 12/30 CO-OP OBSERVER
3 NNW SHEFFIELD 4.9 835 AM 12/30 COCORAHS
4 N WALDEN 4.4 700 AM 12/30 CO-OP OBSERVER
2 NE SUTTON 4.2 700 AM 12/30 CO-OP OBSERVER
WHEELOCK 4.0 724 AM 12/30 PUBLIC
HARDWICK 3.3 1123 AM 12/30 TRAINED SPOTTER
LYNDONVILLE 3.0 635 AM 12/30 PUBLIC
ST. JOHNSBURY 2.0 1125 PM 12/29 BROADCAST MEDIA
2 NE UNDERHILL CENTE 12.0 927 AM 12/30 TRAINED SPOTTER
1 NE SOUTH BURLINGTO 10.6 946 AM 12/30 NWS OFFICE
2 NW WESTFORD 9.6 1045 AM 12/30 NWS EMPLOYEE
1 E NORTH UNDERHILL 9.5 936 AM 12/30 TRAINED SPOTTER
2 SE SOUTH BURLINGTO 9.3 941 AM 12/30 NWS EMPLOYEE
WILLISTON 8.5 1000 AM 12/30 PUBLIC
1 NNW JERICHO 8.0 945 AM 12/30 COCORAHS
1 NNE JERICHO 8.0 1008 AM 12/30 TRAINED SPOTTER
1 SSE HUNTINGTON 7.0 1200 PM 12/30 TRAINED SPOTTER
MILTON 7.0 1025 AM 12/30 NWS EMPLOYEE
1 SSW UNDERHILL 7.0 933 AM 12/30 PUBLIC
1 NNE HUNTINGTON 6.6 940 AM 12/30 COCORAHS
1 WSW UNDERHILL 6.5 931 AM 12/30 TRAINED SPOTTER
ESSEX CENTER 5.8 735 AM 12/30 NWS EMPLOYEE
1 E NASHVILLE 5.8 851 AM 12/30 NWS EMPLOYEE
1 NW BURLINGTON 5.2 756 AM 12/30 COCORAHS
COLCHESTER 4.0 700 PM 12/29 PUBLIC
1 SW MILTON 3.5 1059 PM 12/29 NWS EMPLOYEE
1 ENE AVERILL 6.1 800 AM 12/30 CO-OP OBSERVER
1 N ISLAND POND 4.0 1015 AM 12/30 CO-OP OBSERVER
GILMAN 2.5 600 AM 12/30 CO-OP OBSERVER
FAIRFAX 8.0 859 AM 12/30 PUBLIC
GEORGIA CENTER 7.0 859 AM 12/30 PUBLIC
BAKERSFIELD 6.5 1124 AM 12/30 PUBLIC
2 W NORTH FAIRFAX 5.5 732 AM 12/30 COCORAHS
ST. ALBANS 1.8 750 PM 12/29 PUBLIC
...GRAND ISLE COUNTY...
5 SSE ALBURGH 2.0 900 AM 12/30 COCORAHS
JEFFERSONVILLE 5.0 923 AM 12/30 PUBLIC
3 SSE JEFFERSONVILLE 4.5 841 AM 12/30 CO-OP OBSERVER
JOHNSON 4.5 842 AM 12/30 CO-OP OBSERVER
MORRISVILLE 3.8 906 AM 12/30 PUBLIC
1 SSE SMUGGLERS NOTC 3.5 742 AM 12/30 PUBLIC
3 NE HYDE PARK 3.2 822 AM 12/30 COCORAHS
STOWE 3.0 742 AM 12/30 PUBLIC
CORINTH 5.4 730 AM 12/30 CO-OP OBSERVER
2 NW CHELSEA 4.5 700 AM 12/30 CO-OP OBSERVER
WILLIAMSTOWN 4.0 914 AM 12/30 PUBLIC
NEWBURY 2.0 300 PM 12/29 PUBLIC
2 NW DERBY CENTER 6.0 700 AM 12/30 COCORAHS
1 SW IRASBURG 5.0 800 AM 12/30 CO-OP OBSERVER
BARTON 4.5 913 AM 12/30 PUBLIC
NEWPORT 4.2 700 AM 12/30 CO-OP OBSERVER
MORGAN 4.0 723 AM 12/30 PUBLIC
2 NNE GREENSBORO 3.5 700 AM 12/30 COCORAHS
1 WNW WESTFIELD 3.0 816 AM 12/30 COCORAHS
KILLINGTON 13.0 800 AM 12/30 PUBLIC
MT. HOLLY 12.0 1036 AM 12/30 PUBLIC
HUBBARDTON 12.0 920 AM 12/30 PUBLIC
CASTLETON 10.0 922 AM 12/30 PUBLIC
1 SW FAIR HAVEN 9.0 1100 PM 12/29 PUBLIC
1 N RUTLAND 8.8 754 AM 12/30 COCORAHS
RUTLAND 8.5 950 AM 12/30 PUBLIC
POULTNEY 8.5 939 AM 12/30 PUBLIC
BRANDON 8.5 914 AM 12/30 PUBLIC
FAIR HAVEN 8.0 713 PM 12/29 PUBLIC
HYDEVILLE 8.0 922 AM 12/30 PUBLIC
MENDON 7.9 906 AM 12/30 COCORAHS
PITTSFORD 7.5 1231 AM 12/30 PUBLIC
1 N WEST RUTLAND 7.1 515 PM 12/29 COCORAHS
EAST POULTNEY 5.0 328 PM 12/29 PUBLIC
DANBY 3.8 745 PM 12/29 TRAINED SPOTTER
3 NW WATERBURY 7.8 100 PM 12/30 COCORAHS
WATERBURY 6.0 802 AM 12/30 PUBLIC
3 NE WATERBURY 6.0 530 AM 12/30 COCORAHS
4 ENE CABOT 4.3 1000 AM 12/30 COCORAHS
1 N NORTHFIELD 4.0 848 AM 12/30 CO-OP OBSERVER
2 W WORCESTER 3.3 700 AM 12/30 CO-OP OBSERVER
2 SW EAST CALAIS 2.8 700 AM 12/30 COCORAHS
PLAINFIELD 2.6 700 AM 12/30 CO-OP OBSERVER
3 N POMFRET 8.6 737 AM 12/30 COCORAHS
1 WSW LUDLOW 7.5 822 AM 12/30 COCORAHS
WOODSTOCK 7.0 800 AM 12/30 CO-OP OBSERVER
HARTLAND 7.0 712 PM 12/29 PUBLIC
SPRINGFIELD 7.0 950 AM 12/30 PUBLIC
1 S ROCHESTER 7.0 700 AM 12/30 CO-OP OBSERVER
4 N BETHEL 6.5 700 AM 12/30 CO-OP OBSERVER
WEST WOODSTOCK 6.0 536 PM 12/29 PUBLIC
SOUTH ROYALTON 6.0 726 PM 12/29 PUBLIC
WEATHERSFIELD 6.0 1015 PM 12/29 PUBLIC
1 ESE EAST BARNARD 6.0 414 PM 12/29 TRAINED SPOTTER
BETHEL 5.5 338 PM 12/29 BETHEL ROYALTON LINE
NORWICH 5.5 813 AM 12/30 PUBLIC
3 S LUDLOW 5.5 815 AM 12/30 COCORAHS
PERKINSVILLE 5.0 947 AM 12/30 PUBLIC
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