February 29th, 2012 – Waterbury Winter Weather Event Updates

 

 

Tuesday, February 28th, 2012

 

 

Below I’ve added the most recent (2:47 P.M.) Storm Total Snow Forecast map from the BTV NWS; at this point they’re going with a general 6 to 10 in most of the Greens except for the far north, and anticipated snow totals in the Southern Adirondacks look nice:

 

 

WWUS41 KBTV 281947

WSWBTV

 

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT

247 PM EST TUE FEB 28 2012

 

NYZ026>031-034-035-087-VTZ001>012-016>019-290400-

/O.CON.KBTV.WS.A.0002.120301T0000Z-120302T0000Z/

NORTHERN ST. LAWRENCE-NORTHERN FRANKLIN-EASTERN CLINTON-

SOUTHEASTERN ST. LAWRENCE-SOUTHERN FRANKLIN-WESTERN CLINTON-

WESTERN ESSEX-EASTERN ESSEX-SOUTHWESTERN ST. LAWRENCE-GRAND ISLE-

WESTERN FRANKLIN-ORLEANS-ESSEX-WESTERN CHITTENDEN-LAMOILLE-

CALEDONIA-WASHINGTON-WESTERN ADDISON-ORANGE-WESTERN RUTLAND-

WINDSOR-EASTERN FRANKLIN-EASTERN CHITTENDEN-EASTERN ADDISON-

EASTERN RUTLAND-

INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MASSENA...MALONE...PLATTSBURGH...

STAR LAKE...SARANAC LAKE...TUPPER LAKE...DANNEMORA...

LAKE PLACID...PORT HENRY...TICONDEROGA...OGDENSBURG...POTSDAM...

GOUVERNEUR...ALBURGH...SOUTH HERO...ST. ALBANS...NEWPORT...

ISLAND POND...BURLINGTON...JOHNSON...STOWE...ST. JOHNSBURY...

MONTPELIER...MIDDLEBURY...VERGENNES...BRADFORD...RANDOLPH...

RUTLAND...SPRINGFIELD...WHITE RIVER JUNCTION...ENOSBURG FALLS...

RICHFORD...UNDERHILL...BRISTOL...RIPTON...EAST WALLINGFORD...

KILLINGTON

247 PM EST TUE FEB 28 2012

 

...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING

THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING...

 

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BURLINGTON CONTINUES THE WINTER

STORM WATCH...FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING.

 

* LOCATIONS...ALL OF NORTHERN NEW YORK AND VERMONT.

 

* HAZARD TYPES...MODERATE SNOW ALONG WITH MIXED PRECIPITATION

  OVER PARTS OF NORTHERN NEW YORK.

 

* ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 4 TO 8 INCHES...WITH UP TO

  10 INCHES IN SOUTH CENTRAL VERMONT AND ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE

  ADIRONDACKS AND GREEN MOUNTAINS. UP TO ONE TENTH OF AN INCH OF

  ICE IS POSSIBLE IN THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY OF NEW YORK.

 

* TIMING...SNOW WILL BEGIN LATE IN THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY AND

  BECOME MODERATE AT TIMES WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. MIXED

  PRECIPITATION WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE OVER PARTS OF NORTHERN NEW

  YORK LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING.

 

* IMPACTS...ACCUMULATING SNOWS WILL CREATE HAZARDOUS TRAVEL

  CONDITIONS. MIXED PRECIPITATION OVER NORTHERN NEW YORK WILL

  ALSO ADD TO THE HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS.

 

* WINDS...SOUTHEAST 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH.

 

* TEMPERATURES...LOWS IN THE MID 20S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 30S.

 

* VISIBILITIES...ONE MILE OR LESS IN MODERATE SNOW.

 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

 

A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT

SNOW...SLEET...OR ICE ACCUMULATIONS THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL.

CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS.

 

PLEASE STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...YOUR LOCAL MEDIA...OR

GO TO WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BURLINGTON FOR FURTHER UPDATES ON THIS

WEATHER SITUATION.

 

&&

 

$$

 

MUCCILLI

 

It looks like we’re continuing with a good wintry stretch in the near future – grabbed the latest Mt. Mansfield point forecast graphic as of this afternoon (3:19 P.M.):

 

 

Mixed precipitation is anticipated to enter the picture with the Friday/Saturday system, which isn’t surprising with how far west the models have it.  It’s hard to complain about this active wintry pattern though, barring any huge changes with what comes in tomorrow, that system at the beginning of the weekend is the first one with any mixed precipitation out of six storms.  Like PF has said before, I’ll take the active weather pattern around here anytime over a dry one; the Greens will typically find a way to come out on top and the total liquid in the snowpack will build as long as there’s some moisture with which to work.

 

 

Wednesday, February 29th, 2012

 

 

BTV has put up Winter Storm Warnings and Winter Weather Advisories for the area.  Totals have been bumped up a bit on their latest Storm Total Snowfall Forecast map (4:39 A.M.), but it now goes through 1:00 A.M. Friday so that may be part of it.  The point forecast here calls for roughly 6 to 12 inches of snow through Thursday, with more potential Thursday Night and Friday although that sounds a bit high based on Roger Hill’s broadcast this morning and some of the other forecasts I’ve heard.  Graphics are below:

 

 

 

 

As of ~8:45 P.M., snow has started up here in Waterbury.

 

 

Thursday, March 1st, 2012

 

 

Event totals: 1.4” Snow/0.12” L.E.

 

Snow started up at the house at ~8:45 P.M. yesterday evening, but it fell at a fairly slow pace overnight.  Flakes have often been small, with larger ones at times, so the snow density came in at a fairly synoptic 8.6% H2O (11.7 to 1).  Passing through Richmond this morning, it doesn’t appear as though they got any snow from this event, but farther east in Williston near the I-89 rest area it was snowing decently with accumulation on the ground.

 

Some details from the 6:00 A.M. Waterbury observations are below:

 

New Snow: 1.4 inches

New Liquid: 0.12 inches

Snow/Water Ratio: 11.7

Snow Density: 8.6% H2O

Temperature: 28.4 F

Sky: Light Snow (1-2 mm flakes)

Snow at the stake: 11.5 inches

 

 

It's snowing nicely here on the UVM campus in Burlington this morning, with big flakes up to ~1" in diameter. The snowfall is steady, but not super intense; visibilities seem to be in the ½ to 1 mile range.  Unlike what I saw in Richmond this morning, it was actually snowing when I arrived here in Burlington around 6:45 A.M., and there’s ½-1” of new snow down now.  I’ve also added in my 6:00 A.M. snow/liquid observations from Waterbury here in the NNE thread; that main storm thread moves so quickly that it’s hard to follow the NNE observations:

 

6:00 A.M. Waterbury event totals: 1.4” Snow/0.12” L.E.

 

Snow started up at the house at ~8:45 P.M. yesterday evening, but it fell at a fairly slow pace overnight.  Flakes have often been small, with larger ones at times, so the snow density came in at a fairly synoptic 8.6% H2O (11.7 to 1).  Passing through Richmond this morning, it doesn’t appear as though they got any snow from this event, but farther east in Williston near the I-89 rest area it was snowing decently with accumulation on the ground.

 

Some details from the 6:00 A.M. Waterbury observations are below:

 

New Snow: 1.4 inches

New Liquid: 0.12 inches

Snow/Water Ratio: 11.7

Snow Density: 8.6% H2O

Temperature: 28.4 F

Sky: Light Snow (1-2 mm flakes)

Snow at the stake: 11.5 inches

 

 

 

I’ve added the north to south listing of available overnight snowfall totals from the Vermont ski areas below.  The trend of increasing totals as of this morning is quite visible, with the Northern Vermont ski areas typically picking up under a half foot, and the Southern Vermont Ski Areas getting close to a foot:

 

Jay Peak: 4”

Burke: 5”

Smuggler’s Notch: 2”

Stowe: 4”

Bolton Valley: 2”

Mad River Glen: 2”

Sugarbush: 3”

Middlebury: 4”

Suicide Six: 6”

Pico: 5”

Killington: 5”

Okemo: 9”

Bromley: 10”

Magic Mountain: 12”

Stratton: 8”

Mount Snow: 12”

 

 

Event totals: 4.5” Snow/0.34” L.E.

 

Looking at the scene on the way through Richmond today at ~5:15 P.M., I’d say they didn’t actually get any accumulation from this storm. New snow accumulations pick up not too far east of there though, with a solid covering in Jonesville, and that continues to increase as one heads into the mountains to Bolton and then Waterbury. Accumulations definitely take a big jump as soon as you are along and east of the spine of the Greens though, and I suspect we’ll be able to see this when the accumulations are reported tomorrow morning. I didn’t find much more than a coating on the car at the Waterbury Park and Ride, but the ground had a nice accumulation so snow may have been blown off or melted. At the house I found 3.1" of new snow on the snowboard, and it’s a bit drier than the overnight accumulation, coming down to 7.1% H2O. There was a lull in snowfall for a bit there, but it’s picked back up now with some bigger flakes up in the ½-1” range, so there may be more accumulation to report from this event. The point forecast for here calls for an additional 1-2” of snow tonight.

 

I’ve updated the north to south listing of storm totals from the Vermont ski areas below.  Most places picked up about another half foot today, with some of the Northern Vermont ski areas now approaching a foot for this event, and some of the Southern Vermont Ski Areas getting close to a foot and a half:

 

Jay Peak: 4”

Burke: 8”

Smuggler’s Notch: 10”

Stowe: 9”

Bolton Valley: 6”

Mad River Glen: 6”

Sugarbush: 6”

Pico: 10”

Killington: 10”

Okemo: 9”

Bromley: 12”

Magic Mountain: 18”

Stratton: 14”

Mount Snow: 16”

 

Some details from the 6:00 P.M. Waterbury observations are below:

 

New Snow: 3.1 inches

New Liquid: 0.22 inches

Snow/Water Ratio: 14.1

Snow Density: 7.1% H2O

Temperature: 29.7 F

Sky: Flurries (2-3 mm flakes)

Snow at the stake: 14.0 inches

 

 

Friday, March 2nd, 2012

 

 

Event totals: 4.8” Snow/0.34” L.E.

 

It was a busy day today, and although I got my 24-hour precipitation report in to CoCoRaHS, I didn’t get a chance to send in my final storm report to the forum, so I’ve got that below; a final 0.3” fell here after 6:00 P.M. yesterday evening to finish things off at 4.8” for the event.

 

Details from the 6:00 A.M. Waterbury observations are below:

 

New Snow: 0.3 inches

New Liquid: Trace

Temperature: 25.3 F

Sky: Cloudy

Snow at the stake: 14.0 inches

 

Below I’ve added the north to south listing of final storm totals from the Vermont ski areas:

 

Jay Peak: 9”

Burke: 10”

Smuggler’s Notch: 10”

Stowe: 9”

Bolton Valley: 10”

Mad River Glen: 6”

Sugarbush: 9”

Pico: 9”

Killington: 9”

Okemo: 14”

Bromley: 14”

Magic Mountain: 18”

Stratton: 15”

Mount Snow: 19”

 

We went to Stowe today for turns, and boy, after in excess of five feet of snow in the past week or so, the conditions are stupendous, just like one would expect for prime season.  The snow from this last event wasn’t quite the 2-4% H2O fluff that we picked up during the previous storm cycle last weekend, but it was decent medium-weight powder in the 7-8% H2O range based on my analyses here at the house, and it skied beautifully.  The snowpack depth at the Mt. Mansfield Stake is at 81” as of this evening’s measurement, with what looks like roughly 2/3 of an inch of additional liquid going into the snowpack from the storm.  Of course, I’m never sure of their liquid measurement if they aren’t actually capable of catching the snow that falls.  I added a couple of pictures from today below:

 

 

 

The next storm is already on our doorstep (flakes were flying here as of ~10:15 P.M. or so), and as klw mentioned above, Winter Weather Advisories are up for most of the state:

 

 

Our point forecast indicates the potential for a couple inches of new snow here, and I was pleasantly surprised to see that the point forecast for Mt. Mansfield has the temperature barely going above freezing tomorrow.

 

On a seasonal note, I was looking through my data and noticed that thanks to the boost of the past week or so, this season’s snowfall is rapidly approaching what was obtained at this location in the entire season of 2009-2010 (127.7”).  That was a season of storms tracking way too far south, and I’d forgotten just how poor it was in terms of snowfall.  I just checked the seasonal averages in my records, and the mean snowfall from here on out is just shy of 40”, so with the current 2011-2012 snowfall at 105.4”, even a below average March and April could see this season surpass 2009-2010 for snowfall.  With the way much of this season went, I would consider it quite an impressive recovery if this season avoided being the least snowy of the past six.

 

 

View PostNittany88, on 2 March 2012 - 12:40 AM, said:

http://www.erh.noaa.gov/btv/html/storm_report.shtml :whistle:

 

Nittany, thanks for taking up the reins in terms of getting people to send in their snowfall numbers to the NWS, but I figured I’d just echo the comments of some of the other guys and say that in my case, the 24-hour snowfall, liquid equivalent, and snowpack data from this location go in to CoCoRaHS every day at 6:00 A.M., and the NWS has access to those numbers and already uses them in their storm summaries.  This location is 3 NW Waterbury:

 

...WASHINGTON COUNTY...
3 NW WATERBURY 4.8 600 AM 3/02 COCORAHS

 

…and that’s my 4.8-inch storm report there on the NWS map on the Chittenden County/Washington County line near the border of Waterbury and Bolton:

 

 

Anyway, I’m always up for getting in as many numbers as possible, but I’ve not wanted to double report to the NWS system and cause any sort of confusion.  Thanks for posting the snowfall map and text though, I think most of the folks that frequent the forum enjoy seeing the numbers posted and archived here.

 

 

 

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