February 8th, 2013 – Waterbury Winter Weather Event Updates

 

 

Wednesday, February 6th, 2013

 

 

It’s notable to see the Winter Storm Watches up almost wall to wall on the BTV map, it’s just that section of northern New Hampshire that features the Wind Chill Warning instead:

 

 

I saw the BTV projected accumulations map posted earlier – certainly more than I would have thought, but we’ll have to see how it goes.  The graphics actually have this area getting into that 18-24” range:

 

 

If something in the middle to top end of the point forecast here verified it would actually be the largest snowfall event of the season:

 

 

 

Thursday, February 7th, 2013

 

 

I’ve added the updated advisory and accumulations maps from the BTV NWS; winter storm warnings are up toward western New York State:

 

 

Projected snowfall amounts are lower now in the northern areas, and seem consistent with other forecasts I’ve heard:

 

 

 

Boston-FranconiaUSA-WX, on 07 Feb 2013 - 08:01 AM, said:https://www.amwx.us/public/style_images/American_Weather/snapback.png

 

Projected snowfall amounts are lower now in the northern areas, and seem consistent with other forecasts I’ve heard:

Looks like BTV is riding the GFS...Ed made this call early yesterday.

 

The numbers seem generally in line with what I heard from Roger Hill in his early broadcast this morning (he was going with 3-7” on the front end of the system, and 3-6” with the back end), so BTV may have gone a touch lower in North-Central Vermont on their accumulation map, but a similar ballpark.  It should be interesting to see if changes need to be made in the next update.  If something like the 6Z NAM was to verify, numbers would probably be somewhat higher because it looks like it has the low pressure system closer to the coast with a more substantial slug of precipitation working its way through parts of Northern New England.

 

 

powderfreak, on 07 Feb 2013 - 1:40 PM, said:https://www.amwx.us/public/style_images/American_Weather/snapback.png

 

Yeah I think big snowstorms are much different in big cities. I've experienced quite a few biggies up here (March 2011's 27" was the most recent), but there's something about being in an urban settling during a big snowstorm.

We'll get ours again at some point...or at least a 15-30" upslope event or something, haha.

 

Absolutely, I ran the numbers last February in a post pertaining to the big storm at the end of the month.  My data suggest that there’s typically 1 to 2 of those events in the 40” range each season for the local mountains.  Unless somehow tied to a storm that is region wide though, those events don’t get a fraction of the discussion that events get if they are affecting the big population centers.  Fewer people are interested, and the localized nature seems to make them tougher to forecast.  The biggest storm that I can recall so far this season topped out in the 2 to 2 ½ foot range back at the end of December, so we really haven’t had a whopper yet this season.  The skiing was already nice on Sunday though, and with all the snow so far this week, the skiing should be great this weekend with whatever falls from this next event.  And, it looks like there are more storms on the way next week as well.  It is great getting all the analysis for this upcoming event since it is impacting the big population centers – both here and on The Weather Channel.  I wish The Weather Channel was always like this, with model analyses and live coverage instead of all the documentary type TV shows.

 

 

Thanks for posting the maps PF; we’re under a Winter Storm Warning now on the advisories map:

 

 

I did notice that my area has been bumped up from the 6- 8” range in the earlier map to the 8-10” range in this latest version:

 

 

If we can avoid getting into too much wind, that would be a nice blanket of snow for turns this weekend.

 

 

Friday, February 8th, 2013

 

 

Event totals: 1.9” Snow/0.09” L.E.

 

There was a steady snow falling this at observations time this morning.  The flakes were in that middle size range, topping out around 8 mm in diameter, and the snow was fairly lofty at around 20 to 1 for the snow to water ratio.  I don’t see any notable changes in the BTV advisories map, but we’ve been bumped up another accumulation tier on the projected accumulations map to the 10-14” range:

 

 

I see PF’s radar image above, and indeed the snow must be pouring down at the house based on the image from my web cam.  I cleared the board and set out my accumulation markers on the back deck at 6:00 A.M. observations time, and as of ~7:15 A.M. or so there was already more than 2 additional inches down (triangle blocks are 2-inch increments, tall block is 3-inch increments):

 

 

I’m guessing the snow quality is in the range of what I measured this morning, so 4-5% H2O; that should make for some fine Champlain Powder™ skiing this weekend.

 

Details from the 6:00 A.M. Waterbury observations:

 

New Snow: 1.9 inches

New Liquid: 0.09 inches

Snow/Water Ratio: 21.1

Snow Density: 4.7% H2O

Temperature: 15.2 F

Sky: Snow (2-8 mm flakes)

Snow at the stake: 5.5 inches

 

 

Our point forecast has us down for 3-5” today, and I don’t think there will be any problem reaching that since I can see that today’s total is already approaching 6” as of 9:00 A.M.  That’s certainly a nice start to this event.

 

 

adk, on 08 Feb 2013 - 11:20 AM, said:https://www.amwx.us/public/style_images/American_Weather/snapback.png

 

Looks like the models from 48 hrs ago were MORE accurate w/r/t this northern stream. Going to bet that a strip from the High ADK thru Nor. VT gets 12-18 easy.

 

Nice, checked the web cam as of noontime and it’s closing in on 8” for the event so far at the house – my smaller measurement blocks are getting pretty buried:

 

 

 

Event totals: 10.6” Snow/0.57” L.E.

 

It was really beautiful when I was leaving Burlington this evening.  The flag in front of Fletcher Allen was just sitting there limp in the dead calm while big flakes were pouring down.  The accumulation seemed quite substantial, and I see that the BTV NWS office came in with 8.8” as of 8:00 P.M.  Here at the house I drove up the driveway through what felt like a foot of snow – and indeed it was close.  I’ve got the intermediate snowfall, liquid, and snow density data for the storm below, which displays the interesting trend:

 

Snow Start – 6:00 A.M.:  1.9” Snow/0.09” L.E./Ratio 21.1/4.7% H2O

6:00 A.M. – 1:00 P.M.:  6.1” Snow/0.25” L.E./Ratio 24.4/4.1% H2O

1:00 P.M. – 8:00 P.M.:  2.6” Snow/0.23” L.E./Ratio 11.3/8.8% H2O

 

It’s immediately obvious when one sees that the 2.6” in the afternoon contained almost as much liquid as the 6.1” from this morning, so the density went way up.  Something must have changed in the atmosphere at that point.  Unfortunately in terms of snow quality, that makes this an upside down event, but I don’t think folks will complain too much when they’re gliding through it on the slopes.  The radar shows a neat picture of the snow departing to the west and building in from the east:

 

 

It will be interesting to see how much additional snow builds into the area tonight; the point forecast still calls for some additional inches, but it will depend on how long the storm hangs around before pulling east.

 

Details from the 8:00 P.M. Waterbury observations:

 

New Snow: 2.6 inches

New Liquid: 0.23 inches

Snow/Water Ratio: 11.3

Snow Density: 8.8% H2O

Temperature: 22.6 F

Sky: Light Snow (1-4 mm flakes)

Snow at the stake: 14.0 inches

 

 

I’ve added the latest advisories and snow total forecast maps below.  Winter Storm Warnings now cover everywhere but the NEK.  The current snow forecast map is quite a patchwork similar to the one PF posted above.  This area is in that 10-14” coloring, which seems to jive pretty nicely with my observations since we’ve had close to 11” so far.

 

 

 

 

Saturday, February 9th, 2013

 

 

Event totals: 12.5” Snow/0.68” L.E.

 

Indeed we did get a couple more inches overnight as the forecast suggested, pushing this event past the one foot mark and dropping us nicely in that 10-14” range that the BTV NWS had on their latest projected accumulations map.  The snow had dried out a bit as well, back down below 6% H2O.  This is likely due to the fact that the snowfall hasn’t been comprised of just those tiny grains, but some flakes up to 4 mm in diameter are in the mix now, and they’ve been able to contribute some loft.  Below I’ve updated my snow data for the various periods of collection during this event:

 

Snow Start – 6:00 A.M.:  1.9” Snow/0.09” L.E./Ratio 21.1/4.7% H2O

6:00 A.M. – 1:00 P.M.:  6.1” Snow/0.25” L.E./Ratio 24.4/4.1% H2O

1:00 P.M. – 8:00 P.M.:  2.6” Snow/0.23” L.E./Ratio 11.3/8.8% H2O

8:00 P.M. – 6:00 A.M.:  1.9” Snow/0.11” L.E./Ratio 17.3/5.8% H2O

 

There is another tenth of an inch of snow on the board now, but I can see from the radar that the snow is clearing out so it’s probably just about done here.

 

The next storm coming through appears to have the TWC name “Orko” – watching the models and forecasts over the past couple of days, it seems like we’re sort of flirting with the rain snow line up here, but it sure seems like there some snow potential with it – and this time it really looks like there could be some upslope snow on the back side.

 

Details from the 6:00 A.M. Waterbury observations:

 

New Snow: 1.9 inches

New Liquid: 0.11 inches

Snow/Water Ratio: 17.3

Snow Density: 5.8% H2O

Temperature: 12.0 F

Sky: Light Snow (1-4 mm flakes)

Snow at the stake: 15.0 inches

 

 

The storm finished up here with that final tenth of an inch for 12.6” snow (same as j24vt) and 0.68” L.E.

 

I really think that BTV NWS storm total map is interesting with the various pockets of high and low numbers - some spots came in really low down near Rutland:

 

 

Bolton Valley reported 14” for their storm accumulation on the top end, and I generally found 10-12” of powder down in the 1,500’ – 2,000’ elevation range.  It certainly wasn’t anything epic by NVT standards, but there was plenty of white goodness to be had:

 

 

I’ve added the north to south listing of the storm totals I’ve seen from the Vermont ski areas; it was really quite a consistent performance up and down the spine for the entire length of the state, with 1 to 1 ½ feet:

 

Jay Peak: 14”

Burke: 12”

Smuggler’s Notch: 18”

Stowe: 14”

Bolton Valley: 14”

Mad River Glen: 12”

Sugarbush: 14”

Middlebury: 12”

Pico: 14”

Killington: 14”

Okemo: 12”

Bromley: 12”

Magic Mountain: 15”

Stratton: 11”

Mount Snow: 17”

 

I stopped in at Weather.com and they’ve got a fantastic collection of professional photos related to Nemo; those guys definitely know how to take some captivating photos:

 

http://www.weather.com/news/weather-winter/winter-storm-nemo-20130206

 

 

Hitman, on 09 Feb 2013 - 6:12 PM, said:https://www.amwx.us/public/style_images/American_Weather/snapback.png

 

Fun day of skiing although i enjoyed yesterday more.

I’m liking the forecast for this upcoming week. Sleet mixed precip is good for the base which is sorely needed on the natural snow trails and woods. There was nice powder there today but some cement would be helpful. And then some uplsope. Could set up well for holiday weekend.

 

It’s nice to hear some talk about the next event, it seemed like it was getting short shrift due to the Nemo storm.  I totally agree that the slopes could use another good dose of liquid equivalent – this storm delivered some decent powder but some slopes are still recovering from that latest January warm spell.

 

 

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