March 13th, 2013 – Waterbury Winter Weather Event Updates

 

 

Tuesday, March 12th, 2013

 

 

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT

355 PM EDT TUE MAR 12 2013

 

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...

 

COLD AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION BEHIND THIS FRONT AND RAIN WILL CHANGE OVER TO WET SNOW BEFORE PRECIPITATION ENDS TOWARDS EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. STILL THINK WE CAN SEE A COATING TO AN INCH IN MOST LOCATIONS...WITH LOCALLY UP TO 2" ACROSS THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM.

 

The Intellicast Radar shows the snow off to the west as this front moves through:

 

 

 

It’s below freezing on Mt. Mansfield now, and it looks like precipitation has changed over to snow on the colored radar.  It’s dropped into the 30s F here as well, so colder air is moving in.

 

 

Wednesday, March 13th, 2013

 

 

There was an occasional flake falling in Burlington when I left around 4:00 P.M., but just a few miles east the snowfall was quite intense.  Off the pavement, it looked like there was already a half inch to an inch of accumulation in the higher elevation areas of I-89 in Williston, and visibility was down to ¼ mile at times.  Accumulations disappeared and the snow intensity let up right down in Richmond at I-89 Exit 11, but reappeared immediately to the east of there and the intensity ramped up again.  Right now we’re heading toward Bolton Flats and the visibility had got to be down to 1/8 of a mile at times with huge flakes falling.

 

 

Event totals: 0.7” Snow/0.05” L.E.

 

The snowboard had accumulated 0.7” of snow as of 5:00 P.M. due to that intense snowfall.  Another 0.5” accumulated after that, but I’ll be rolling that into the morning report.

 

I haven’t passed along a report from the previous event since no snow fell, but there was 1.48” of liquid from it.  Based on the surrounding numbers I’m seeing on CoCoRaHS, it looks like the mountains were doing their usual things with enhancement here along the spine, but this time of year it would be better for the snowpack if they were doing it with snow instead of rain.

 

Today’s snow was the first in eight days, and if there was any question about how poor the snowfall has been in this area this season, I’ve got a salient statistic using the data for this location.  I think just about everyone is familiar with how poor snowfall was in 2011-2012; it was certainly the lowest I’d recorded in our six seasons here.  However, as of three days ago, 2012-2013 actually fell behind 2011-2012 in terms of snowfall.  The pattern going forward has much more potential this season than last, but I still found it to be a striking statistic.

 

Details from the 5:00 P.M. Waterbury observations are below:

 

New Snow: 0.7 inches

New Liquid: 0.05 inches

Snow/Water Ratio: 14.0

Snow Density: 7.1% H2O

Temperature: 35.4 F

Sky: Heavy Snow (10-25 mm flakes)

Snow at the stake: 0.5 inches

 

 

Thursday, March 14th, 2013

 

 

Event totals: 1.6” Snow/0.07” L.E.

 

After the initial burst of snow dropped 0.7” yesterday afternoon through 5:00 P.M., another 0.5” fell with the completion of that pulse of snow.  Those flakes were huge, with some up to an inch or more in diameter, so despite the marginal temperatures, the snow still accumulated with quite a bit of loft.  Since temperatures were still a bit above freezing at that point though, that snow generally melted down on the snowboard once the precipitation stopped.  Another 0.4” fell overnight, and that’s what was found on the snowboard this morning.  Since the 6:00 A.M. clearing, there’s been another 0.2” of snow, and that will get incorporated into the next round of observations later today.

 

North to south listing of snow totals for the Vermont ski areas with this event are below; 2-3” fell up at the northern and north-central areas, with totals falling off from Central Vermont southward.:

 

Jay Peak: 3”

Burke: T

Smuggler’s Notch: 1”

Stowe: 3”

Bolton Valley: 2”

Mad River Glen: 3”

Sugarbush: 2”

Pico: 0”

Killington: 0”

Okemo: 0”

Bromley: T

Stratton: 0”

Mount Snow: 0”

 

I’ve also put together a north to south list of reported season snowfall to date for the Vermont ski areas; it’s nice to see that almost all of them appear to be providing this data now – especially Smugg’s, which was the only one of the Northern Vermont resorts that hadn’t been doing that:

 

Jay Peak: 283”

Burke: 125”

Smuggler’s Notch: 217”

Stowe: 223”

Bolton Valley: 200”

Mad River Glen: 164”

Sugarbush: 221”

Pico: 166”

Killington: 166”

Bromley: 107”

Magic Mountain: 95”

Stratton: 114”

Mount Snow: 136”

 

One point of local note on season snowfall is that Bolton Valley is just hitting the 200” now, which is well behind average pace for an average snowfall that is over 300”.  An image of this morning’s snow report is added below, and the dearth of recent snowfall is quite obvious when one sees that the 24-hr, 48-hr, 72-hr, and even the 7-day snow totals are all the same value.  Also in the report is some text about how the snow has been handled subsequent to the rain earlier this week.

 

 

Details from the recent Waterbury observations are below:

 

11:00 P.M.

 

New Snow: 0.5 inches

New Liquid: 0.01 inches

Snow/Water Ratio: 50.0

Snow Density: 2.0% H2O

Temperature: N/A

Sky: Mostly Clear

Snow at the stake: 0.5 inches

 

6:00 A.M.

 

New Snow: 0.4 inches

New Liquid: 0.01 inches

Snow/Water Ratio: 40.0

Snow Density: 2.5% H2O

Temperature: 27.7

Sky: Light Snow (1-3 mm flakes)

Snow at the stake: 0.5 inches

 

 

Below I’ve updated the north to south listing of snow totals for the Vermont ski areas with some numbers coming in for the afternoon; there’s quite a bit of variability up and down the spine, but the ‘bush/MRG area seems to be leading the way right now with 8-10” reported. 

 

Jay Peak: 5”

Burke: T

Smuggler’s Notch: 4”

Stowe: 6”

Bolton Valley: 3”

Mad River Glen: 10”

Sugarbush: 8”

Pico: 4”

Killington: 4”

Okemo: T”

Bromley: T

Stratton: 0”

Mount Snow: 2”

 

adk, on 14 Mar 2013 - 3:11 PM, said:https://www.amwx.us/public/style_images/American_Weather/snapback.png

 

We've had very few ho-hum another 3-5 of upslope fluff events. In good winters that happens 2-3 times a week without any fanfare.

 

Yes, the past couple of days have felt like a return to more typical NNE weather, since we got one of those standard 1-3”/3-6”, or even 6-10” style events.  I saw PF mention that on average there should be roughly 18”/week falling at Stowe, and that’s how it’s done – usually there’s a “biggie” every week or two, interspersed among those standard events.  There’s certainly potential out there to make quite a jump in conditions with the help of this current event, the somewhat similar event that is forecast for tomorrow, and then perhaps something bigger at the beginning of next week.

 

BTV’s thoughts on tomorrow:

 

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...

AS OF 348 PM EDT THURSDAY...GOING INTO FRIDAY MORNING...MOST SPOTS WILL SEE SOME BREAKS AHEAD OF CLIPPER WHICH IS CURRENTLY MVG THRU THE NORTHERN GREAT LKS REGION. POSSIBILITY OF SYSTEM ARRIVING EARLIER DUE TO BLOCKING OFFSHORE WHICH WOULD SLOW UP MVMNT OF CURRENT LOW OVER US. LATEST MDL TRENDS SUPPORT A FRI MORNING ARRIVAL SO WILL STAY WITH. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE TYPICAL CLIPPER FOR THE AREA. ZONES WILL SEE QUICK SHOT OF LIGHT SNOWFALL WITH FOCUS OVER HIR TRRN INITIALLY THEN BY LATE IN DAY...NORTHERN VT AS WINDS SHIFT BACK TO WNW FROM WSW IN THE MORNING. OVERALL LOOKING FOR D-1" IN VALLEY LOCALES WITH UP TO 1-3" FOR HIR ELEV. HIGH PRESSURE ADVANCES INTO THE NORTHEAST LATE FRIDAY NIGHT BUILDING OVER THE REGION FOR SATURDAY. SOME LINGERING -SW FOR NORTHERN ZONES FRI NGT BFR ENDING. RIDGE REMAINS OVER AREA SATURDAY NGT FOR CLRING SKIES AND CD...BLW NORMAL TEMPS. CAA FOR THE SHORT TERM PERIODS WILL BRING TEMPS AT LEAST 10 DEGREES BLW NORMAL FOR BOTH HIGHS/LOWS.  

 

The latest run I’ve seen on the WunderMap® is the 18Z NAM, but it seems generally in line with recent GFS and ECMWF runs for this area:

 

 

 

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