March 15th, 2013 – Waterbury Winter Weather Event Updates

 

 

Thursday, March 14th, 2013

 

 

adk, on 14 Mar 2013 - 3:11 PM, said:https://www.amwx.us/public/style_images/American_Weather/snapback.png

 

We've had very few ho-hum another 3-5 of upslope fluff events. In good winters that happens 2-3 times a week without any fanfare.

 

Yes, the past couple of days have felt like a return to more typical NNE weather, since we got one of those standard 1-3”/3-6”, or even 6-10” style events.  I saw PF mention that on average there should be roughly 18”/week falling at Stowe, and that’s how it’s done – usually there’s a “biggie” every week or two, interspersed among those standard events.  There’s certainly potential out there to make quite a jump in conditions with the help of this current event, the somewhat similar event that is forecast for tomorrow, and then perhaps something bigger at the beginning of next week.

 

BTV’s thoughts on tomorrow:

 

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...

AS OF 348 PM EDT THURSDAY...GOING INTO FRIDAY MORNING...MOST SPOTS WILL SEE SOME BREAKS AHEAD OF CLIPPER WHICH IS CURRENTLY MVG THRU THE NORTHERN GREAT LKS REGION. POSSIBILITY OF SYSTEM ARRIVING EARLIER DUE TO BLOCKING OFFSHORE WHICH WOULD SLOW UP MVMNT OF CURRENT LOW OVER US. LATEST MDL TRENDS SUPPORT A FRI MORNING ARRIVAL SO WILL STAY WITH. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE TYPICAL CLIPPER FOR THE AREA. ZONES WILL SEE QUICK SHOT OF LIGHT SNOWFALL WITH FOCUS OVER HIR TRRN INITIALLY THEN BY LATE IN DAY...NORTHERN VT AS WINDS SHIFT BACK TO WNW FROM WSW IN THE MORNING. OVERALL LOOKING FOR D-1" IN VALLEY LOCALES WITH UP TO 1-3" FOR HIR ELEV. HIGH PRESSURE ADVANCES INTO THE NORTHEAST LATE FRIDAY NIGHT BUILDING OVER THE REGION FOR SATURDAY. SOME LINGERING -SW FOR NORTHERN ZONES FRI NGT BFR ENDING. RIDGE REMAINS OVER AREA SATURDAY NGT FOR CLRING SKIES AND CD...BLW NORMAL TEMPS. CAA FOR THE SHORT TERM PERIODS WILL BRING TEMPS AT LEAST 10 DEGREES BLW NORMAL FOR BOTH HIGHS/LOWS.  

 

The latest run I’ve seen on the WunderMap® is the 18Z NAM, but it seems generally in line with recent GFS and ECMWF runs for this area:

 

 

 

Friday, March 15th, 2013

 

 

Hitman, on 15 Mar 2013 - 10:31 AM, said:https://www.amwx.us/public/style_images/American_Weather/snapback.png

 

Ill take 12/27 again, thank you very much.

 

Indeed, that was the largest storm of the season so far at our location with 15.5”, and the ski areas topped out at over two feet.  Most folks would be happy with a result like that again.

 

 

powderfreak, on 15 Mar 2013 - 7:21 PM, said:https://www.amwx.us/public/style_images/American_Weather/snapback.png

 

Bolton Valley just getting crushed right now.

 

Indeed, that snow is marching right down the Winooski Valley; 2”+ per hour snowfall outside with those stronger echoes coming through:

 

 

 

powderfreak, on 15 Mar 2013 - 7:43 PM, said:https://www.amwx.us/public/style_images/American_Weather/snapback.png

 

Yeah I don't doubt it... I had 0.8" in 20 minutes earlier this evening so that's a 2.4"/hr rate and the radar wasn't nearly as robust.

You're elevated snow board is going to clean up with this stuff.

 

Actually, that’s right on with what I measured – 1.2” in ~30 min, so 2.4”/hr.  Just checked the board, and the storm total is 3.0” as of ~8:00 P.M.  This is the Northern Greens stuff we’ve sort of been lacking a lot this season.  Not sure how much the Froude Numbers is currently playing a role, but that value around 1 seems pretty nice if it is:

 

 

 

Event totals: 1.1” Snow/0.04” L.E.

 

I’m not sure how much has fallen up at Bolton so far, but as of ~8:30 P.M., 3.2” has fallen down here, so it’s going to be interesting to see what they report.  Snow has tapered off for now, but it looks like there still might be some upstream:

 

 

Details from the 7:00 P.M. Waterbury observations are below:

 

New Snow: 1.1 inches

New Liquid: 0.04 inches

Snow/Water Ratio: 27.5

Snow Density: 3.6% H2O

Temperature: 30.0 F

Sky: Heavy Snow (2-15 mm flakes)

Snow at the stake: 1.5 inches

 

 

Saturday, March 16th, 2013

 

 

Event totals: 4.0” Snow/0.16” L.E.

 

Overnight, another 2.9” of snow fell on the snowboard.  The density for this latest round was a touch higher than yesterday evening’s accumulation, probably due to a bit of settling overnight, but it was some fairly high quality snow, coming in around the 4% H2O mark.  This storm has been notable for at least a couple of reasons: 1) it’s been the largest event of the month to date, and 2) it’s brought the season snow total at this location past what was obtained in the winter of 2011-2012.  So, this season will not go down as the lowest in the records here in terms of snowfall.

 

Below is the north to south listing of some of the early reports from the Vermont ski areas for this event; the first list is overnight for this event, and the second list is for the Thursday and Friday events combined; the ‘bush and MRG continue to lead the way right now, closing in on a foot and a half of new snow:

 

24-hour totals

 

Jay Peak: 6”

Burke: 3”

Smuggler’s Notch: 2”

Stowe: 3”

Bolton Valley: 4”

Mad River Glen: 6”

Sugarbush: 6”

Pico: 1”

Killington: 1”

Okemo: 3”

Bromley: 4”

Stratton: 2”

Mount Snow: 2”

 

72-hour totals

 

Jay Peak: 11”

Burke: 3”

Smuggler’s Notch: 6”

Stowe: 9”

Bolton Valley: 7”

Mad River Glen: 16”

Sugarbush: 15”

Pico: 5”

Killington: 5”

Okemo: 3”

Bromley: 5”

Stratton: 4”

Mount Snow: 4”

 

Details from the 6:00 A.M. Waterbury observations are below:

 

New Snow: 2.9 inches

New Liquid: 0.12 inches

Snow/Water Ratio: 24.2

Snow Density: 4.1% H2O

Temperature: 21.2 F

Sky: Mostly Clear

Snow at the stake: 4.0 inches

 

 

powderfreak, on 16 Mar 2013 - 06:26 AM, said:https://www.amwx.us/public/style_images/American_Weather/snapback.png

 

Either way, we missed the bulk though as I bet Bolton/MRG/Sugarbush put up some healthy numbers this morning. Flow was also more NNW which topography can favor Addison/Washing county line more so than Chittenden/Lamoille (which does better with a more westerly than northerly flow).

My jackpot guess would be Bolton though. I'll be really surprised if they do not report the highest snowfall (outside of Jay Peak which somehow always has the most regardless of what logic would show as the favored region in a specific event).

 

Watching the radar here from my perspective right down below Bolton, I was going to go with the ‘bush/MRG area getting hit the hardest – we got a nice flow here in the Winooski Valley, but they seemed to get hit more directly by a couple of the later impulses.  Being right up above us, I’m still surprised that they only reported 4” up there at Bolton when 4” accumulated down here almost 3,000’ below.  Granted, my accumulation was taken in two rounds, and theirs probably one, but even this morning there’s a clear 3”+ down here, even after settling.  I’d rather they take the conservative approach like you though, so combined with settling and a slightly lower reporting elevation, that 4” may be the way it went.  I think there’s been enough new snow from these past two events to warrant a trip up to the mountain though, so hopefully we’ll get up and I’ll be able to make some measurements myself as well.  Indeed you’re right though, Jay Peak was right up there near the top in terms of overnight totals:

 

Jay Peak: 6”

Bolton Valley: 4”

Mad River Glen: 6”

Sugarbush: 6”

 

Based on what I’ve seen, it’s definitely been ‘bush/MRG in the wheelhouse for these past two events though, and those 15-16” totals for 72 hr speak to that.

 

 

J.Spin, on 16 Mar 2013 - 07:30 AM, said:https://www.amwx.us/public/style_images/American_Weather/snapback.png

 

I think there’s been enough new snow from these past two events to warrant a trip up to the mountain though, so hopefully we’ll get up and I’ll be able to make some measurements myself as well.

 

We were up at Bolton for turns from late morning into the afternoon, and I can pass along some snow observations.  I did numerous checks up in the 3,000’ range today and was getting depths from 6 to 9 inches in areas that didn’t have drifting.  That’s after some settling over the past couple of days, but the 7 inches reported for the past two events certainly seems to be in the ballpark. Naturally the powder skiing naturally wasn’t bottomless everywhere, but you could definitely get a good percentage of bottomless turns on appropriate terrain, and bringing that fat skis helped with that. There were plenty of good turns out there though:

 

 

 

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