January 25th, 2013 Waterbury Winter Weather Event Updates



Saturday, January 26th, 2013



Event totals: 0.1 Snow/0.01 L.E.


Last night a bit of light snow broke out in association with the upper level disturbance from the Great Lakes that was passing to our south, and we picked up another tenth of an inch of snow to add to the season tally.


While snowfall has seemed scarce of late with the arctic air that has been around, when I was entering my data into my spreadsheet this morning it was very interesting to note that this marked the 30th accumulating snowstorm for our location this season (storm by storm accumulations can be found in the signature below). Using the averages from my snowfall data, we are currently just 52.0% of the way through the accumulating snowfall season, and while its sort of hard to recall where all the storms came from with the recent dry pattern, this is actually a record pace for number of storms if extrapolated out to a full season. The current high mark Ive recorded here for accumulating snowstorms is 53 during the 2007-2008 season, which was certainly one where it felt like we were right in the storm track. Snowfall is still running a bit on the lean side at 86.3% of average through this morning, so not surprisingly, snow is low on a per storm basis at just 2.4/storm, with ~4/storm being more typical.


If the perception this January has been one of dryness, that is indeed born out in my precipitation data with todays 0.01, the month is now at 0.79 of liquid. Thats quite a contrast after 6.31 in December. Perhaps were passing that precipitation nadir however, because a glance at our point forecast graphics suggests a lot more activity in the coming days:



Warmer temperatures and snow are in the text forecast right through next Friday, so that is definitely a welcomed relief after this recent trip to the arctic.


Details from the 6:00 A.M. Waterbury observations:


New Snow: 0.1 inches

New Liquid: 0.01 inches

Snow/Water Ratio: 10.0

Snow Density: 10.0% H2O

Temperature: 2.5 F

Sky: Clear

Snow at the stake: 4.5 inches



Allenson, on 26 Jan 2013 - 08:18 AM, said:https://www.amwx.us/public/style_images/American_Weather/snapback.png


Nice to see some light snow in the forecast, even it is a prelude to a warmish day or two.


Im very much in agreement on that one. Its NNE, so stick us in the storm track and well get snow especially in the mountains.



Thanks for the nice data and analysis PF


powderfreak, on 26 Jan 2013 - 11:27 AM, said:https://www.amwx.us/public/style_images/American_Weather/snapback.png


What I've found interesting is that the upslope region is at below normal snowfall right now, while the BTV/CPV is above normal snowfall (yesterday, BTV was 3.3" ahead of "normal" pace). We just have not been getting our daily snowfalls and this January has been by far the lowest snowfall in the 5 years I've worked at the mountain, and those stats would also go for town I'm assuming.

Usually we'd be averaging 1-3" per day (if not more) from town to mountain summit. Not happening this month.

I didnt know about that disparity very interesting. For me it just reinforces why these strong arctic air masses are probably my least favorite winter weather setup. Indeed in many patterns wed be getting our typical daily doses of snow, but these types of setups just push everything out of the way. Even cutting systems are better, because many will give front and back end snows.


powderfreak, on 26 Jan 2013 - 11:27 AM, said:https://www.amwx.us/public/style_images/American_Weather/snapback.png


What is more disturbing to me, is that so far this season's December/January total is actually less than it was last winter... however hopefully we can add another inch or three before the end of the month.


Its really thanks to an OK November (we typically dont get so much November snow in the valleys that low months cut into the seasonal total too badly) and a good December that snowfall is where its at, because indeed January has been poor on snow. Here are the monthly percentages on snowfall relative to average for our location this season:


November: 70.8%

December: 119.0%

January: 43.8%

The month isnt over yet, but barring a big storm (e.g. 12+), were going to come in well below average on snowfall for the month. We need roughly two feet of additional snow to catch up to the January average. At least moisture looks like its picking back up.


powderfreak, on 26 Jan 2013 - 11:27 AM, said:https://www.amwx.us/public/style_images/American_Weather/snapback.png


Also interesting though is how strong recent February's have been and how atrocious March has been.

I was just thinking about March, and I was happy to see that the last two average out to almost 30/month here. The two big March clunkers in my data set are actually the two seasons before that 08-09 and 09-10, where snowfall averaged out to just 7.4/month. March is just too good a month for snowfall in the mountains to be held down for very long. I see that people are already talking about the Morch thing, but Im guessing thats more of an SNE phenomenon.



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