Stowe, VT 04NOV2012

An image showing ski tracks on the Sunrise trail at Stowe Mountain Resort in Vermont after an early November snowfall
Catching a few early season turns on Sunrise today

It’s been snowing in the Green Mountains since Friday, and accumulating down to the 1,500’ to 2,000’ level.  We’ve even had some flakes reach down to the mountain valleys, and although the lower elevations have generally seen rain and we haven’t had any accumulation at the house, we’ve picked up 0.39” of liquid over the past couple of days.  Even as early as yesterday, snow depths had reached the point where it looked like it was worth making a few turns, so I headed to Stowe today to check it out for myself.

I left the house near midday under cloudy skies and a temperature of 39 F, but a few minutes into the drive, the temperature dropped to 37 F in the Waterbury Center area, and snow began to fall.  It snowed lightly all the way to the mountain, and accumulations began to appear just as I hit the resort base at ~1,500’ in elevation.  The temperature had really dropped as I ascended the last stretch to the resort, and as I parked in the Midway lot, the temperature was right around the freezing mark.

Accumulations in the Midway area were generally a trace to an inch, so I stowed my skis on my pack and headed over toward Nosedive to use that standard route of ascent.  As I approached the 2,000’ mark, the snow depth became a bit more consistent, generally in the 1”-2” range, and I switched to skins.  I was probably a touch early on putting on my skins since I encountered a few more spots of mud, but that’s what rock skins are for, and it made for a lot less slipping than hiking in my boots.  The precipitation that had been snow at the start of my ascent turned into more of a freezing mist as I headed into the clouds around 3,000’.  Up around 3,600’ at the Stone Hut it was windy, well below freezing, and quite chaotic with Stowe’s snow gun firing off what seemed like a 21 gun salute.  I sheltered behind the hut to keep out of the wind and the roar of the snow guns as I switched to descent mode and had a much needed snack.  The wind made for plenty of drifting during my ascent, but I’d sum up the snow depths with respect to elevation as follows:

1,600’: T-1”
2,000’: 1”-2”
2,500’: 2”-4”
3,000’: 4”-6”
3,600’: 6”+

I’d only encountered a couple of groups descending on Nosedive while on my ascent, but there were plenty of tracks from previous visitors and the snow was quite packed out, so I decided to descend some other terrain off to the south.  The combination of wind, freezing mist, low visibility, and manmade snow made for a really challenging descent, especially on my skinny Telemark skis, so I generally just took it easy and stuck to mellow terrain.  In general I didn’t find much in the way of decent turns until I got down onto Sunrise below the snowmaking, and pretty quickly after that the snow depth was getting a bit meager.  I did manage some nice turns here and there, but eventually it was more gorilla-style survival turns until I finally decided to call it at the elevation of Crossover.  I strapped the skis back on my pack and had a nice stroll back to the car.  I’d say at this point the skiing isn’t worth putting in a ton of effort, but it’s definitely fun to get out for a few turns if you’re close by.  We’ll have to see if anything comes from the Nor’easter that’s expected this week though, because the current snow could serve as a decent base for another round of accumulations.

Checking out today’s snow at Bolton Valley, Vermont

An image of the village area at Bolton Valley Ski Resort in Vermont - November snows have just coated the slopes along with the village.
Today’s snow up at Bolton Valley

On our way toward Burlington to run some errands today, we headed up to Bolton Valley in the mid afternoon to get our season’s passes.  Temperatures were in the low 40s F at the house, but started to drop pretty quickly as we ascended the Bolton Valley Access Road.  The first signs of snow on the ground along the road were just above the Timberline Base in the 1,700’ elevation range, but I also noticed that slushy snow was still present on vehicles in the parking lot of the Timberline Base Lodge (1,500’) even though there was nothing left on the ground there.  I suspect that the snow line was a bit lower last night, but I’m not sure quite had far down it reached. Up in the village at 2,100’ it was snowing with temperatures in the low to mid 30s F, and we found about an inch and a half of accumulated snow on the ground/elevated surfaces.  It was quite a contrast descending the road and spending the afternoon in the Burlington area, where the temperatures were in the mid 40s F and it was hard to imagine that it was snowing even below 2,000’, the lapse rate actually seemed steeper than usual today.  In the Champlain Valley it was often just cloudy with the feeling that precipitation had wound down, but as the afternoon wore on, spits of precipitation and bouts of light rain became more common.  At times we’d have bursts of more moderate precipitation and it was nice to know that moisture was still heading to the mountains and falling as snow.  Leaving Burlington later in the evening we went from 42 F in Williston to ~37-38 F at the house.  There no accumulating snow to report down here as the temperature is sitting around the 37 F mark, but we’ve got light to moderate rain right now and 0.18” of liquid in the rain gauge since it was emptied this morning, so it’s probably still accumulating at elevation.  A few pictures are available from our visit to the higher elevations of Vermont today.

November snows begin for Vermont

An image of the snow line on Mt. Mansfield and some of the Northern Green mountains in Vermont in early November
The snow line visible in the Greens today

After five snow events for Vermont in October, temperatures warmed up for the end of the month as Hurricane Sandy entered the picture, but cold air is back now that we’re into November, and snow has come with it.  Taking a look outside from my office at UVM today, I saw that the cloud ceiling has risen a bit up to ~3,500’, and an obvious snow line was visible in the Northern Greensit looked like it was in the 2,500’ to 3,000’ range, jiving nicely with Powderfreak’s report of 2,800’ on the east side of the range at Stowe Mountain Resort.  The northern portion of the Central Greens south of I-89 was actually hidden at that because there was snow falling there, and that snow gradually moved northward.  As temperatures have cooled tonight, we’re even getting snow down in the mountain valleys, with potential accumulation in the forecast over the next couple of days.

Third October snowfall finally reaches to the valleys in Vermont

An image of early-season October snow falling in front of Bolton Mountain in Northern Vermont, obscuring the Green Mountains from view
Today’s snow along the western slopes of the Green Mountains, blocking them from view

White tendrils of snow began to appear along the western slopes of the Green Mountains late this morning as the cold air moved into the area, and people started seeing snow all the way down into the valleys.  Although the snow from Monday and Thursday only affected the mountains, we picked up our first accumulating snow at the house today as a heavy graupel storm came through in the afternoon.  Tonight is supposed to be the coldest of the season so far, and there’s still the chance for a bit more snow before the weather warms up going into next week.  For more information about today’s snowfall, be sure to check out my post in the American Weather Forum.  For the full details on this storm, head to the detailed report at the winter weather section of our website.

Next round of October snow hits the peaks in Northern Vermont

An image showing Vermont's second October snowfall coating the summit of Mt. Mansfield, with green trees in the Champlain Valley marking the foreground
Round two of October snow revealed itself near the summit of Vermont’s Mt. Mansfield this morning.

As the sun rose Monday morning, it revealed the first accumulating snow in Vermont this season, but the next event was close on its heels, with another round of snow laid down on the peaks of the Greens today.  It was raining and 41 degrees F at the house this morning, but that translated into snow 3,000’ to 4,000’ up.  The snow line appeared to be a bit higher with this event, up around 3,000’, and less than an inch of new snow was reported at ~3,700’ on Mt. Mansfield.  Although this snowfall wasn’t as substantial as the last one, it was definitely enough to paint the peaks white.  The cold season is definitely edging closer though, as the higher elevations of Mt. Mansfield stayed below freezing all day for the first time this season, and even more snow could be on the way tonight.

Snow for Vermont and other peaks in the Northeast

An image of early October snowfall being revealed on the slopes of Mt. Mansfield in Vermont as the clouds begin to lift
As clouds begin to lift, an image from the web cam at Stowe Mountain Resort reveals a fresh October snowfall from last night.

It looks like the temperature on the Mt. Mansfield ridgeline stayed at or below freezing from midnight onward last night, and with 0.29” of new liquid found in our rain gauge at the house this morning, there was clearly some precipitation to go with those sub-freezing temperatures.  The web cam images from Mt. Mansfield this morning show snow on the trails at Stowe above the 3,000’ level, and reports from the mountain indicate that there were a few inches of accumulation, so this is likely the first accumulating snow of the season for Vermont.  Over in New Hampshire, new snow is visible on the Wildcat summit at ~4,000’, and the vertical temperature profile on Mt. Washington shows that temperatures really fell of quickly above that elevation and they picked up 3.6” of snow as of this morning.  As the clouds pull away in Northern New England today, I’d expect to see some white-capped peaks to go with our foliage.

Afternoon Update:  Numerous pictures of the fresh snow on the peaks throughout the Northeast are available in a new thread at AlpineZone, and the guys at FIS have already gone up and done some skiing on the snow on Mt. Mansfield this morning.  In addition, Powderfreak measured 4” of new snow while he was working up at the Cliff House on Mt. Mansfield today, and sent in several nice pictures of the snow and foliage in a post in the Northern New England thread at American Weather.

An image of Mt. Mansfield in Vermont taken from the Burlington area on October 8th, 2012 showing the first snowfall of the season on the peak with some of the fall foliage below
Vermont’s first accumulating snowfall of the 2012-2013 winter season

Widespread frost and freeze potential in Vermont

A map from the National Weather Service in Burlington showing the frost advisories and freeze warnings for Vermont and the surrounding areas on September 19th, 2012
Freeze Warnings and Frost Advisories are up throughout much of the state of Vermont tonight.

Parts of the Northeast have had bouts of sub-freezing temperatures since the end of August, but tonight looks like the first widespread occurrence of the season throughout Vermont.  We’ve got a frost advisory here in Washington County, but it sounds like some of the colder areas of the state up in the Northeast Kingdom could get down into the middle 20s F, and freeze warnings are in place.  It’s certainly time to cover up those gardens in the usual cold spots.

A map of predicted low temperatures from the National Weather Service in Burlington from the morning of September 20th, 2012
Sub-freezing temperatures are forecast for much of Vermont tonight.

Sub-Freezing Temperatures for the Northeast

Since it’s the end of August, it probably shouldn’t be that surprising that autumn-like weather is touching the Northeastern U.S., with freezing and sub-freezing temperatures hitting some of the usual cold spots. This has been one of the coldest winters we have had for a long time. For that reason, it is paramount that anyone who has a broken furnace visits https://www.burichvac.com/ in order to find a professional repair service. Equally, you might want to consider having your furnace or central heating system serviced, even if it hasn’t been showing any signs of breaking. These sorts of things should have regular maintenance and just before a very cold spell is the perfect time to check that they are working as they should be. The last thing you’d want is your heating to break as the freezing and sub-freezing temperatures hit. It is simple to find a business who offers these services; citizens of North Dakota, for example, should search for “home heating fargo” (or whatever city they call home) to find an appropriate business. This weather can be very dangerous especially for old people and those that have pre-existing health conditions should take extra care during the winter months. These days often sneak up on us though amidst the typically pleasant weather at the end of summer.

I saw a comment in the Signs of the Season thread at AlpineZone that Mt. Washington in New Hampshire was below freezing last night, and indeed the Mt. Washington website confirms this. After a quick look through the August data in their archive, it appears that it was the first time this month, so perhaps it is a sign of the season. It’s the end of August, and Saturday is September though, so presumably it must be about time for sub-freezing temperatures on the rockpile. Down at more modest elevations, Saranac Lake also touched 32 F last night. As part of the discussion in the Northern New England Summer thread at American Weather, Powderfreak posted a plot with first dates of freezing for some of the cold spots in the forecast area for the National Weather Service Office in Burlington, Vermont.

September and October Snowfall Averages for Mt. Mansfield

As we head into the last few weeks of summer, some people’s thoughts turn to early snowfall in the mountains, and this topic recently popped up with respect to Mt. Mansfield in the New England Regional Forum at American Weather.  Since I have all the raw snowpack data from the Mt. Mansfield co-op station downloaded from when I created the Mt. Mansfield 24” snowpack plot, I scanned through the September numbers back to 1954 to see what they revealed.  Because the collection of actual snowfall at that station can be a bit dicey, I first checked the snowpack data that I had, and found three occurrences of September snowpack at the stake:

Date                 Snow at the stake (in.)
9/15/1959          1
9/16/1986          4
9/17/1986          2

However, assuming they have historically been using the same practice of reporting the depth of the snowpack at the end of the day (~5:00 P.M. or so) as they do now, it was likely that there was overnight September snowfall that simply didn’t make it through the entirety of many warm, September days to be reported from the stake.  Therefore, I also checked the snowfall data, and found that indeed there are a fair amount of reports of September snowfall:

Date                 Snowfall (in.)
9/15/1959          1.00
9/24/1966          0.50
9/2/1967            0.30
9/25/1967          1.50
9/22/1976          1.00
9/28/1980          0.50
9/16/1986          4.00
9/24/1989          1.00
9/21/1991          1.00
9/28/1991          0.30
9/29/1991          1.00
9/30/1992          0.30
9/23/1998          0.30
9/30/2009          0.02

There are a few years with no data, but accumulating September snow does happen on Mt. Mansfield, at a rate of roughly a couple times each decade.  I’m not quite sure what was going on with the 2009 number, since one doesn’t generally report snowfall to the hundredths of an inch; perhaps they are reporting a trace on that one.  Not surprisingly, September snowfall is more frequent on Mt. Washington with a couple thousand feet of extra vertical – the September monthly average there is 2.2” inches, and the monthly maximum is almost 8 inches, so accumulating September snow is probably fairly common.

I also scanned the Mt. Mansfield data for August, and there was even one report of accumulation there:

Date                 Snowfall (in.)
8/28/1986          0.20

Since there was also mention of October, I took a look at those data as well.  Because accumulating October snowfall is already fairly common even down here in the mountain valleys of the Northern Greens (out of the six season’s worth of snowfall data I have collected here, four Octobers have seen accumulating snowfall, and the average is right around an inch) I figured that getting October accumulation on Mt. Mansfield must be almost a lock.  Indeed that’s the case; after checking the snowpack data from 1954 – 2012, there are only a handful of seasons without reported snowpack, and one of those seasons did at least show some snowfall:

Seasons without reported October snowpack on Mt. Mansfield
1956-1957
1963-1964 – 0.1” snowfall
1971-1972
1973-1974
1985-1986
1996-1997
2007-2008

So essentially it’s about twice a decade that there is accumulating snow on Mt. Mansfield in September, and about once a decade that there isn’t accumulating snow on Mt. Mansfield in October.

2011-2012 Winter Weather Summary

Summer is moving along here in Northern Vermont, but at J&E Productions we’ve still been thinking about the winter of 2011-2012, and we’ve finally analyzed our reams of weather data and put together our 2011-2012 Winter Weather Summary. In this post I’ve hit on some of the highlights that came out of the data, and attached our various plots and graphs, but to get to the full data set, you can use the following link:

2011-2012 WINTER WEATHER SUMMARY

The first item that I’ll highlight from the winter of 2011-2012 is the monthly snowfall plot for our location. As meager as the snowfall was this season at our location (just 115.3″ of snow, or 67.0% of our 2006-2011 average), the monthly distribution of snow did retain an aesthetically symmetrical look, peaking in January with February close behind:

A bar graph of the monthly snowfall at our location in Waterbury, Vermont for the 2011-2012 winter season
Snowfall at our house in Waterbury was relatively low during the 2011-2012 winter season, but the monthly distribution was quite symmetrical, peaking in January.

So although 2011-2012 will go down as our least snowy in the six years that we’ve been collecting snowfall here in Waterbury, the 67.0% of our 2006-2011 calculated average is relatively decent compared to the snowfall experienced at some of the first-order New England stations like Burlington (51.4%) or Boston (21.2%). These types of seasons happen, but next season is already closing in fast, and hopefully snowfall totals will be much improved.

The next piece of information is our updated yearly snow/snowfall data table, with the 2011-2012 season now included.

A table showing some key winter weather parameters for the 2006-2007 through 2011-2012 winter seasons at our house in Waterbury, Vermont
When compared to the previous five seasons, the 2011-2012 winter season at our house in Waterbury was the lowest in snowfall, maximum snow depth attained, and snowpack on the ground as assessed by snow depth days. As you can imagine, it gets pretty cold at the house and so it’s always important to make sure that the heating system works. Maintaining it can be easy if you get hold of professionals in your area such as these – thecomfortdoctors.com/heating-and-cooling-services-wilkes-barre-pa/.

The table touches on some of the highlights (or in this case lowlights) from this past winter season (top data row of the table). The 2011-2012 winter season had the somewhat dubious honor of being the “worst” in our data set in three categories: total snowfall, maximum snow depth, and snow depth days (see the red entries in the top row). The snowfall and max snow depth values weren’t all that far from the runner up values, but the big standout was snow depth days, which was well below the next closest season. It’s amazing to see a number so far below the 1,000 day·inches mark, which speaks to the state of the snowpack this season. We still had continuous snowpack at the house for about three months (vs. the typical four months) but the big factor in the low snow depth days was that the snowpack just never got that deep. It sat around at a bit below the one foot mark for most of the season and just didn’t build beyond that except for a couple of periods in February/March:

A plot showing the snowpack depth during the winter of 2011-2012 at our house in Waterbury, Vermont
At our house in Waterbury, the 2011-2012 winter season featured a fairly meager snowpack that sat around the one-foot mark for much of the season, and topped out at just one and a half feet.

With only six seasons worth of data, the low snowfall this season did deal quite a blow to the overall calculated snowfall average, dropping it by almost 10 inches from up above 172 inches per season down to 162.7 inches per season. That’s probably Mother Nature at work getting to her real averages after some banner years. Even though two of the past six seasons have been up around 200 inches of snowfall, presumably that is going to happen only so often. Nonetheless, snow of any size will cause extremely cold temperatures. As a result, make sure your heating is working properly. If not a repair kc team will be able to ensure everything is in working order. However, if you are unable to use these services you must look around for ones that are in your vicinity and can get to you in the proper amount of time. You may want to check here to see who may be available to you. Now back to the science that can help us determine the measurement of snowfall.

As for the rest of the parameters that I track in the table, they were either right around or slightly better than average this season. An interesting note is that the number of snowstorms this season (45) was right around average, so naturally with low snowfall, the amount of snowfall per storm had to take a hit. Indeed, while the average amount of snowfall per storm is typically up around 4 inches, this season it came out at just 2.6 inches, so there were clearly a lot of systems that were weak on snow. This average snowfall per storm was a huge deviation from the mean (almost 2 S.D.), so that must say something about the weather pattern during the past winter, even if I’m not exactly sure what it is at this point.

While the detailed reports of the 45 accumulating snowstorms from the past season are available with more information at the 2011-2012 winter weather summary page, they’ve also been posted here for quick access. If you know of a storm that interests you, you can head right to it. The reports are comprised of text, links, graphs, photos, etc., and much of the text is derived from my posts and dialog from the Americanwx.com New England regional forum. Thanks to the great features available on the forum, you can click on the icon associated with any quoted text in the report, and you’ll be linked right to that post its respective thread. Hopefully this will be useful for folks that are researching/reviewing winter storms. The list of linked winter storms observed at our house is listed below:

01. 10/29/11
02. 11/11/11
03. 11/17/11
04. 11/23/11
05. 12/02/11
06. 12/07/11
07. 12/09/11
08. 12/13/11
09. 12/17/11
10. 12/19/11
11. 12/21/11
12. 12/23/11
13. 12/25/11
14. 12/27/11
15. 12/30/11
16. 01/02/12
17. 01/05/12
18. 01/06/12
19. 01/10/12
20. 01/12/12
21. 01/17/12
22. 01/19/12
23. 01/21/12
24. 01/23/12
25. 01/26/12
26. 01/28/12
27. 01/29/12
28. 01/31/12
29. 02/03/12
30. 02/11/12
31. 02/13/12
32. 02/16/12
33. 02/21/12
34. 02/22/12
35. 02/24/12
36. 02/28/12
37. 02/29/12
38. 03/02/12
39. 03/04/12
40. 03/08/12
41. 03/09/12
42. 03/26/12
43. 03/28/12
44. 04/04/12
45. 04/26/12

Something new that we’ve also added this season is a gallery of our snow measurement devices in action, so other folks that measure snowfall may enjoy those images:

SNOWFALL MEASUREMENT PAGE

The various data charts and graphs from this season’s analysis can also be viewed in the gallery below: