Category: Weather

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Snowpack has reached zero at the back yard stake

Waterbury, Vermont 2010-2011 snowpack plot
The snow depth went to zero today at our back yard stake in Waterbury. (Click on the image for the full size plot)

As of this morning, the depth of snow at our back yard stake has reached zero, so I’ve updated my Waterbury snowpack plot and included it in this post.  This means that the last day with snow at the stake was 4/12, and the average I have for that value is 3/27 ± 14 days, so this season is a couple of weeks later than that average.  The next benchmark I’ll monitor will be when the final snow in the yard is gone, and based on data I have from ’07-’10, that average date is 4/12 ± 10 days, so roughly a couple of weeks later than when the snow has melted out at the stake.  As of today, the yard snowpack has been around for 130 days, but that is actually still below average (138 ± 14 days) because of the late start to the season; the start of continuous snowpack this season was on the later side at 12/5 vs. an average of 11/27 ± 9 days.  Unless the rest of the snow in the yard melts unusually fast however, the end result of the snowpack season will probably be somewhere around that average value.

I’d say that winter temperatures were more consistent than usual this season, so it’s a little easier to see the steady climb in snowpack from a value of 0″ on 12/4 through the value of 39.5″ on 3/8.  The average rate of increase during the period was 0.42″/day.  This was a decent snowpack season, with snow depth days from my stake coming in at 2,227 depth-days vs. the average of 1,812 ± 741 depth-days.  However, the combination of the rather late start and long stagnation through mid January (visible on the plot) while the storms were going south, meant that it certainly wasn’t up where the ’07-’08 season was at over 2,500 depth-days.

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High water on the Winooski at the VAST snowmobile bridge

Image of high water on the Winooski
Melting snow from warm temperatures caused the Winooski to rise today - our local VAST snowmobile bridge was basically floating on the river.

With the recent warm temperatures melting some of the snowpack, the Winooski was quite high today, so I’ve added a couple of pictures of our local VAST snowmobile bridge.  The bridge was refurbished in the fall, and from the pictures one can see that the boards are still pretty light in color.  Normally the bridge is 5 to 10 feet above the river, so that provides a sense of the rise of the water level due to the melting snow, and with the fields off to the south taken over by water (visible in the background) the Winooski was several times its normal width. 

Close up image of the VAST snowmobile bridge at high water
A close up view of the south side of the VAST bridge and the flooded fields beyond
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100 Inches

Mt. Mansfield and Waterbury Vermont snowpack plot for April 5th, 2011
The snowpack at the Mt. Mansfield stake hit 100 inches after yesterday’s snowfall – click for the full size plot
The snowpack at the Mt. Mansfield stake has been flirting with the 100-inch mark for several weeks, but thanks to yesterday’s snow, the afternoon reading indicated that we’d finally hit the century mark.  A depth of 100 inches at the stake is a nice benchmark indicating an excellent snowpack in the Northern Green Mountains, so the base depths for skiing should be decent for quite some time.  Down in the valley, the snowpack at our house in Waterbury was at 16 inches as of this morning’s reading.  I’ve added my latest plot for the Mt. Mansfield and Waterbury snow depths in this post.
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Thursday afternoon NWS snow accumulations forecast update

BTV NWS Storm Total Snow Forecast map
The Thursday afternoon update for the Storm Total Snow Forecast map from the National Weather Service in Burlington - click for the full size image

The afternoon update to the Storm Total Snow Forecast map from the National Weather Service in Burlington suggests a few inches less accumulation all around.  A comparison to the previous map is in my afternoon post to the Northern New England thread at Americanwx.com.

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NWS potential snowfall update from mid morning

Snowfall accumulations map for Vermont and Northern New York
Mid morning update on potential snow accumulations from the National Weather Service in Burlington - click for full size image

The National Weather Service in Burlington updated their potential snowfall accumulations map mid morning today, so I’ve added the latest version here.  I discussed some differences from yesterday afternoon’s map in a post in the Northern New England thread at Americanwx.com.

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Storm incoming, 1 to 2 feet possible for the Greens

Winter Weather Advisories Map from the BTV NWS
The winter storm watches from yesterday have been upgraded to winter weather advisories and winter storm warnings today

I’ve added the updated advisories and warnings map from the National Weather Service Office in Burlington, but their projected accumulations map looks similar to yesterday, so I’ll just refer to the one that was already posted earlier in the blog.  In his forecast from this morning, Roger Hill suggested the potential for 1 to 2 feet in the Green Mountains, with 6 to 10 or 8 to 14 for some valley locations and the potential for school closures.  Looking at the winter storm warnings from BTV, it seems that the biggest totals are more south of here, although as is often the case, if upslope gets into the picture later in the storm cycle, the Northern Greens seem to do pretty well.  The current point forecast for our location in the Winooski Valley at ~500’ suggests 5 to 10 inches through tomorrow, and then additional snow Friday night, Saturday, and Saturday night.  We’ll have to see how this system goes around here, but similar to what we saw in 2007-2008, we would be closing in on the 200-inch mark for seasonal snowfall at our location if we get a decent dump.

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Afternoon update on potential snowstorm

BTV NWS Accumulations Map
Snowfall predictions from the Burlington NWS updated this afternoon - click for the full size image

I’ve added the latest Storm Total Snow Forecast map from the Burlington office of the National Weather Service in this post.  The models are still moving around with the exact track of the system, but the NWS meteorologists feel that we’ve got a shot at some decent snow in the area.  More details and a comparison of the morning and afternoon maps for potential accumulations are in my afternoon post in the NNE thread at Americanwx.com.

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Potential April Fool’s Day Storm

BTV Winter Weather Warnings Map
Winter Storm Watches are up for Vermont and New York as of this morning

There appears to be a storm on the way for the Northeastern U.S. in the Thursday through Saturday timeframe. The exact effects on our region aren’t known yet, but there is the possibility of some decent snowfall. I’ve added the latest Burlington NWS advisories and potential accumulations maps to this thread, and more details are in the NNE thread at Americanwx.com.

Potential Snowfall Accumulations Map
Initial snowfall projections from the Burlington office of the National Weather Service - click to view the larger image
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A little more snow today, possible storm this weekend

I measured 0.3 inches of snow today at the house due to the upslope snowfall activity that has been hanging around, bringing our location to 39.6 inches for March and 192.6 inches for the season.  Details are in my post in the Northern New England thread at Americanwx.com.  There is the potential for a larger storm this weekend, and there’s plenty of good discussion going on in the Americanwx.com New England Forum.

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Good powder in the local mountains

Jay in the powder at Bolton valley
Jay skiing the powder at Bolton valley yesterday

Waterbury event totals: 2.8” Snow/0.06” L.E.

After that quick inch of snow we picked up yesterday, that was it for snowfall down here at the house as far as I can tell.  We were back up at Bolton for some more turns starting around midday, and it was snowing pretty hard for the first part of the afternoon.  Friends that we met up there said that it had snowed like that all morning.  It’s nice to see what’s going on up at Jay, because they were a bit left out of the pattern earlier in the season with so much activity focused to the south.  I’ve added the 7-day and seasonal snowfall totals for some of the VT resorts below:

Jay Peak: 30” (359”)
Stowe: 18” (311”)
Bolton Valley: 14” (316”)
Killington: 4” (251”)

Right now the snowpack is 98 inches at the Mt. Mansfield stake, and if one looks at the SkiVT-L plot for the snow depths, this is right around the date for the typical maximum.  The historical data suggests a small dip after the end of March, but the snowpack really seems to hang around at this level until roughly mid April before it actually starts to fall off., so I could see the peak snowpack depth being anywhere in that range, especially with the current weather pattern.